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Probabilistic Revenue Analysis of Microgrid Considering Source-load and Forecast Uncertainties

Yang Yang, Yuanfan Ji, Guangchao Geng, Quanyuan Jiang
2021 IEEE Access  
Overall, it is effective and necessary to carry out probabilistic revenue analysis considering source-load and forecast uncertainties in microgrids. E.  ...  of source-load and forecast to generate random scenarios, and proposes the probabilistic revenue analysis method.  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2021.3139805 fatcat:lgjy33feunb2rhuf2hhlye4q2e

Comparative life cycle cost analysis of hardening options for critical loads

Sung Min Park, Sung-Yeul Park, Peng Zhang, Peter Luh, Michel T. J. Rakotomavo, Camilo Serna
2014 ISGT 2014  
In addition, to minimize the risks associated with estimated cost errors due to uncertainties of input data, the stochastic input data are considered.  ...  Using the Monte Carlo method, the probabilities and cost ranges in the case studies can be predicted, in turn resulting in better decisions in the selection of hardening options which are cost effective  ...  Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge Northeast Utilities for their financial support and creating this research opportunity.  ... 
doi:10.1109/isgt.2014.6816395 dblp:conf/isgt/ParkPZLRS14 fatcat:uvf23xgvzrganks4bc76gug2lu

Comparative Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Hardening Options for Critical Loads

Sungmin Park, Sung-Yeul Park, Peng Zhang, Peter Luh, Michel Rakotomavo, Camilo Serna
2016 Energies  
In addition, to minimize the risks associated with estimated cost errors due to uncertainties of input data, the stochastic input data are considered.  ...  Using the Monte Carlo method, the probabilities and cost ranges in the case studies can be predicted, in turn resulting in better decisions in the selection of hardening options which are cost effective  ...  Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge Northeast Utilities for their financial support and creating this research opportunity.  ... 
doi:10.3390/en9070553 fatcat:uypl5b344vdcrowf43gbptzqku

Uncertainty management in decision-making in power system operation [chapter]

Mohammad Hemmati, Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Alireza Soroudi
2020 Decision Making Applications in Modern Power Systems  
To show the uncertainty modeling process and its effect on the decision-making, a microgrid consisting of multiple uncertain parameters is considered, and stochastic scenario-based approach is used for  ...  Due to the penetration of renewable energy resources and load deviation, uncertainty handling is one of the main challenges for power system; therefore the need for accurate decision-making in a power  ...  The opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Science Foundation Ireland.  ... 
doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-816445-7.00002-5 fatcat:g2zecw53nrbpdnkplfc4xeqce4

Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting in Smart Grids: A Review

Hosna Khajeh, Hannu Laaksonen
2022 Applied Sciences  
This paper reviews the recent studies and works dealing with probabilistic forecasting models and their applications in smart grids.  ...  Finally, we propose some future applications of probabilistic forecasting based on the flexibility challenges of power systems in the near future.  ...  Acknowledgments: The work of Hosna Khajeh was supported by the Ella and Georg Ehrnrooth Foundation. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.  ... 
doi:10.3390/app12041823 doaj:7983bd9658584546868ebcb5964433cc fatcat:ddrmqguhmbe6dpn5nbw3cl43bm

Use of Forecasting in Energy Storage Applications: A Review

Vinayak Sharma, Andres Cortes, Umit Cali
2021 IEEE Access  
The paper presents an MPC based model considering probabilistic forecasts and the uncertainties associated with them.  ...  The first scenario considers forecast uncertainty in load forecast while the solar forecast is assumed to be perfect. The second scenario considers uncertainty in renewable forecast.  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2021.3103844 fatcat:maigrzzfyfal7lhd5icauvfzeq

Stochastic Volt/Var Planning and Operation for Microgrids with Renewables

Nand K. Meena, Anil Swarnkar, Nikhil Gupta, K. R. Niazi
2016 International Journal of Electrical Energy  
The proposed Volt/Var model considers the probabilistic behavior of wind, solar irradiation and demand simultaneously which is solved by genetic algorithm.  ...  This paper presents an optimal planning and operation of wind turbines, photovoltaics, and SCs simultaneously for Volt/Var control in microgrids.  ...  Probabilistic Modeling of Solar Power Generation and Load Demand Generally, solar irradiation forecasting techniques are used to forecast the future solar irradiation by using previous years irradiation  ... 
doi:10.18178/ijoee.4.3.159-164 fatcat:dbrunqwdf5fahbpzdnjqjjv3iu

Planning Models for Distribution Grid

Piedy Agamez Arias
2018 U Porto Journal of Engineering  
planning and expansion models of the electrical grid to guarantee mainly the energy supply for current and future loads and the technical and operational criteria of the grid, requiring for this, to make  ...  and evolutionary techniques used, the dimension of the grid under analyses, among other aspects considered to solve the planning and expansion problem.  ...  Some of them considered forecasting models for the energy generation and load evolution for simplifying their analysis or to focus better on their objectives.  ... 
doi:10.24840/2183-6493_004.001_0004 fatcat:xbwehsryljbufia3e4fam6h6fy

A robust optimization approach to hybrid microgrid operation using ensemble weather forecasts

Emily Craparo, Mumtaz Karatas, Dashi I. Singham
2017 Applied Energy  
Renewable energy sources can be intermittent and unpredictable, making it difficult to plan operations of a microgrid.  ...  We describe a scenario-robust mixedinteger linear program designed to utilize ensemble weather forecasts to improve the performance of a hybrid microgrid containing both renewable and traditional power  ...  Jonathan Moskaitis of the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, CA for his assistance in obtaining weather data and Hamadi Bouaicha of the Tunisian Navy for collaborating in model development. Dr.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.068 fatcat:qappe62cbjacffl3jybgsttebe

Chance-constrained scheduling model of grid-connected microgrid based on probabilistic and robust optimisation

Chunyang Liu, Xiuli Wang, Jingli Guo, Minghuang Huang, Xiong Wu
2018 IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution  
This study presents a chance-constrained scheduling model based on probabilistic and robust optimisation to handle the uncertainty of renewable energy generation and loads in microgrids.  ...  of uncertainty and the robust one utilises the eliminated scenarios to consider the worst case of uncertainty.  ...  Acknowledgments The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 51577146). This work is also supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2016M600791).  ... 
doi:10.1049/iet-gtd.2017.1039 fatcat:4h5hf2cpkjfpxityby2xrdd55a

Generation scheduling in Microgrids under uncertainties in power generation

A. M. Zein Alabedin, E. F. El-Saadany, M. M. A. Salama
2012 2012 IEEE Electrical Power and Energy Conference  
This is justified for a system with no renewable generators, where the main source of uncertainties is the load forecasting error.  ...  Only one forecast scenario is considered for the load, solar power, and wind power.  Case 3 -With renewables + uncertainties: This case is similar to case 2; however, uncertainties are considered.  ... 
doi:10.1109/epec.2012.6474937 fatcat:strz2dsicndopexi2lg32na74m

Energy Management of Microgrids for Smart Cities: A Review

Muhammad Salman Sami, Muahmmad Abrar, Rizwan Akram, Muhmmad Majid Hussain, Mian Hammad Nazir, Muhammad Saad Khan, Safdar Raza
2021 Energies  
and load fluctuations, while still matching energy demands for their integration in the microgrids of smart cities.  ...  Electric power reliability is one of the most important factors in the social and economic evolution of a smart city, whereas the key factors to make a city smart are smart energy sources and intelligent  ...  Jaganmohan Reddy and Pavan Kumar [84] developed a load forecasting EMS model of a microgrid that predicted short, medium, and long-term forecasts.  ... 
doi:10.3390/en14185976 fatcat:pxzh6p22gvhblihzy7xbe5rlzy

A Concise Review of Energy Management Strategies for Hybrid Energy Storage Systems

Bassey Etim Nyong-Bassey
2022 European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research  
From the literature, it is clear that energy management strategies are imperative if the optimal operation of hybrid energy storage systems and assets is to adequately counteract uncertainty due to intermittent  ...  renewable energy sources.  ...  The HPS consisted of both primary RESs such as PV and WTS, and backup sources such as FC and Gas micro-turbine.  ... 
doi:10.24018/ejeng.2022.7.3.2815 fatcat:hbjv3xf2yzdqberuik5cqcahry

Probabilistic Optimal Power Dispatch in Multi-Carrier Networked Microgrids under Uncertainties

Vahid Amir, Shahram Jadid, Mehdi Ehsan
2017 Energies  
Hence, this study focuses on the probabilistic analysis of optimal power dispatch considering economic aspects in a multi-carrier networked microgrid.  ...  The aim is to study the impact of uncertain behavior of loads, renewable resources, and electricity market on the optimal management of a multi-carrier networked microgrid.  ...  The uncertainty of renewable sources, e.g., wind speed and solar irradiance, was investigated in [29] . Furthermore, in [12] , load uncertainty was modeled and studied.  ... 
doi:10.3390/en10111770 fatcat:ihrlhhnqafdrngglwjrjtbaih4

Microgrid management with weather-based forecasting of energy generation, consumption and prices [article]

Jonathan Dumas
2021 arXiv   pre-print
(2) How to make decisions with uncertainty using probabilistic forecasts?  ...  Most of the generation technologies based on renewable sources are non-dispatchable, and their production is stochastic and complex to predict in advance.  ...  Fig. 6.14 PV and load scenarios shape comparison and analysis.  ... 
arXiv:2107.01034v7 fatcat:c5a7d2w2uzez3par3q6gs3elaq
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