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Population estimation with performance guarantees

A. Orlitsky, N.P. Santhanam, K. Viswanathan
2007 2007 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory  
Given an accuracy to which we need to estimate the population with a pre-specified confidence, we provide a simple stopping rule for the sampling process.  ...  We estimate the population size by sampling uniformly from the population.  ...  Here, we are interested in how many recaptures are necessary to estimate the population to a given accuracy with a specified confidence.  ... 
doi:10.1109/isit.2007.4557157 dblp:conf/isit/OrlitskySV07 fatcat:omq2fmtsajeu5djermhrvjieuy

Selecting service providers from noisy reputations

Sandip Sen, Neelima Sajja
2003 Proceedings of the second international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems - AAMAS '03  
We assume that service providers are drawn from two populations: high and low-performing service providers with different averages but similar variance in performance.  ...  We develop a trust mechanism that determines the number of users to query given a target guarantee threshold likelihood of choosing high-performance service providers in the face of such "noisy" reputations  ...  Figure 4 :Figure 5 : 45 Performance variation with increasing variability in provider performance. Performance variation with error in estimate of liars in population.  ... 
doi:10.1145/860722.860822 fatcat:o3eoiuqlfjc3tdg4mfrd5qwbqa

Robustness of reputation-based trust

Sandip Sen, Neelima Sajja
2002 Proceedings of the first international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems part 1 - AAMAS '02  
We assume that processor agents are drawn from two populations: high and low-performing processors with different averages but similar variance in performance.  ...  We assume that a known percentage of "liar" users, who give inverse estimates of processors.  ...  Performance variation with increasing variability in provider performance. Performance variation with error in estimate of liars in population.  ... 
doi:10.1145/544741.544808 dblp:conf/atal/SenS02 fatcat:rvnsl7dyq5gztirdwh7psfwwv4

Genetic Algorithm Characterization for the Quality Assessment of Forest Fire Spread Prediction

Andrés Cencerrado, Ana Cortés, Tomàs Margalef
2012 Procedia Computer Science  
In this work we expose the way we deal with such uncertainty.  ...  Our research group has previously developed a two-stage prediction methodology that introduces an adjustment stage in order to deal with the uncertainty on the simulator input parameters.  ...  with any degree of guarantee. • Estimation with 85% degree of guarantee: again, we failed in the estimations of populations p1, p3 and p4 at generation 1.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.procs.2012.04.033 fatcat:mm6lgtje7nhavj2xe74mclaucm

Private Tabular Survey Data Products through Synthetic Microdata Generation [article]

Jingchen Hu, Terrance D. Savitsky, Matthew R. Williams
2022 arXiv   pre-print
Our method applied to an observed survey database achieves an asymptotic global probabilistic differential privacy guarantee.  ...  We adapt a pseudo posterior mechanism that downweights by-record likelihood contributions with weights ∈ [0,1] based on their identification disclosure risks to producing tabular products for survey data  ...  is equipped with an asymptotic DP guarantee.  ... 
arXiv:2101.06188v4 fatcat:jfa2tevqnvhbjn4ctmfwshflzi

Determinants of Government Debt in the Member States of the European Union: Sources of Fiscal Risk

Adriana Elena Porumboiu, Petre Brezeanu
2022 Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence  
At international level, banking crises, government guarantees, publicprivate partnerships, companies with majority state capital, and non-performing loans are revealed by history as the main sources of  ...  This study aims to identify whether social assistance expenditures, government guarantees, public-private partnerships, non-performing loans, or tax revenues influence the evolution of the government debt  ...  Table 6 indicates the coefficient estimates for the governmental guarantees' polynomial regression models, Table 7 for the non-performing loans polynomial regression models, Table 8 for social assistance  ... 
doi:10.2478/picbe-2022-0067 fatcat:l65kgwt325ftbhebp7clx6wtwi

Vaccination rules for a true-mass action SEIR epidemic model based on an observer synthesis. Preliminary results [article]

M. De la Sen, A. Ibeas, S. Alonso-Quesada
2011 arXiv   pre-print
A state observer is used to estimate the true various partial populations of susceptible, infected, infectious and immune which are assumed to be unknown.  ...  In this case, the parameters are replaced by available estimates to implement the vaccination action.  ...  The boundedness of all the partial populations upper-bounded by a bounded totals population N guarantees that the extended SEIR system (17)-(22), constructed with the estimated and observer error states  ... 
arXiv:1103.4992v1 fatcat:x4n6bweubzbuvfhaoqlzk7sctm

Ensembles of Spiking Neural Networks [article]

Georgiana Neculae, Oliver Rhodes, Gavin Brown
2021 arXiv   pre-print
We provide comprehensive exploration on the effect of spike train interpretation methods, and derive the theoretical methodology for combining model predictions such that performance improvements are guaranteed  ...  Furthermore, this performance is achieved using simplified individual models, with ensembles containing less than 50% of the parameters of published reference models.  ...  estimate of the expected population Poisson process mean than the average single neuron estimate.  ... 
arXiv:2010.14619v2 fatcat:v7btxz5p5rfatonuq6lwesvy7e

Universal adaptability: Target-independent inference that competes with propensity scoring

Michael P. Kim, Christoph Kern, Shafi Goldwasser, Frauke Kreuter, Omer Reingold
2022 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
Whereas propensity scoring requires a separate estimation procedure for each different target population, we show how to build a single estimator, based on source data alone, that allows for efficient  ...  and accurate estimates on any downstream target data.  ...  By training a single multicalibrated prediction function on source data, the analyst can guarantee estimation error on any target population, comparable to the performance achieved by explicitly modeling  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.2108097119 pmid:35046023 pmcid:PMC8794832 fatcat:ivzizi4vk5ccxgpgcwgd3kcowu

Financial Performance Guarantees: The State of Practice

Wayne M. Feiden, Raymond J. Burby, Edward J. Kaiser
1989 Journal of the American Planning Association  
TABLE 1 : 1 Use of financial performance guarantees with regulations Municipalities Permits using financial issued performance with a guarantees to guarantee ensure compliance required Type  ...  We did not survey jurisdictions with populations below 1 5,000 because, although there is a very large number of them, they represent a small proportion of the US. population.  ... 
doi:10.1080/01944368908975438 fatcat:durxduxakngyjkbyne52ntdz2q


Moonyoung Yoon, James Bekker
2017 South African Journal of Industrial Engineering  
Procedure PR * uses the overall sample means ̅ and guarantees P * in selecting the best among k normal populations with unknown variances.  ...  Ranking and selection procedures provide the decision-makers with a series of actions to take in order to select the best among a number of estimated system performances with high confidence.  ... 
doi:10.7166/28-2-1732 fatcat:2lc5hbehqrhsdj63ztbclv6nci

A Truth Discovery Approach with Theoretical Guarantee

Houping Xiao, Jing Gao, Zhaoran Wang, Shiyu Wang, Lu Su, Han Liu
2016 Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining - KDD '16  
In contrast, in this paper we propose a truth discovery approach with theoretical guarantee.  ...  Experimental results show that our method achieves high accuracy in identifying truths with convergence guarantee.  ...  Property 1 establishes the conditions under which the convergence of the population-EMrgmm M (µ) is guaranteed.  ... 
doi:10.1145/2939672.2939816 dblp:conf/kdd/XiaoGWWSL16 fatcat:fv6anb2nifhoxgkhnipga2gnd4

A Likelihood-Free Inference Framework for Population Genetic Data using Exchangeable Neural Networks

Jeffrey Chan, Valerio Perrone, Jeffrey P Spence, Paul A Jenkins, Sara Mathieson, Yun S Song
2018 Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems  
An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data.  ...  In this work, we develop an exchangeable neural network that performs summary statistic-free, likelihood-free inference.  ...  We gratefully acknowledge the support of NVIDIA Corporation with the donation of the Titan X Pascal GPU used for this research.  ... 
pmid:33244210 pmcid:PMC7687905 fatcat:ugwufqi7ijfetfrqjmb2kiznpm

Is Enough Enough? What Is Sufficiency in Biometric Data? [chapter]

Galina V. Veres, Mark S. Nixon, John N. Carter
2006 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
However, not much attention has been paid to get major questions: how good are biometrics data; how many subjects are needed to cover diversity of population (hypothetical or actual) in gait and how many  ...  Then a guaranteed estimator of the average error rate per subject p −p < ǫ(N s , α) with ǫ(N s , α) = z α σ √ N s . (22) Remembering (13) , we can assert, with risk α of being wrong, that a number of  ...  The random variable of whichp + ǫ(n, α) is a realisation is a guaranteed estimator of the mean.  ... 
doi:10.1007/11867661_24 fatcat:fxefpz6ryvhkdmwigieefhwc44

Stable Genetic Adaptive Control by Using a 2-DOF Control Scheme

Asier Ibeas
2008 Open Cybernetics and Systemics Journal  
This paper introduces an adaptive controller based on the online genetic estimation of the parameters of the system.  ...  Thus, the proposed set-up is flexible enough to be integrated within a great variety of genetic estimation algorithms.  ...  In the sequel, an implementation of a 2-DOF control law allows linking the advantages of the genetic estimation along with guaranteeing stability properties under weak conditions on the evolution of the  ... 
doi:10.2174/1874110x00802010093 fatcat:ukgpia6gpvhqfnpe4ifjmwqb5y
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