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Optimal decision-making with time-varying evidence reliability

Jan Drugowitsch, Rubén Moreno-Bote, Alexandre Pouget
2014 Neural Information Processing Systems  
The work presented here describes the computation and characterization of optimal decision-making in the more realistic case of an evidence reliability that varies across time even within a trial.  ...  Previous theoretical and experimental work on optimal decision-making was restricted to the artificial setting of a reliability of the momentary sensory evidence that remained constant within single trials  ...  Based on a principled formulation of this problem, we describe optimal decision-making with time-varying evidence reliability.  ... 
dblp:conf/nips/DrugowitschMP14 fatcat:pcg6nuvhwfhl3nuvd5ajf2zhyy

Probabilistic vs. non-probabilistic approaches to the neurobiology of perceptual decision-making

Jan Drugowitsch, Alexandre Pouget
2012 Current Opinion in Neurobiology  
In particular, neither model type is sufficiently flexible to encode the reliability of both the momentary and the accumulated evidence, which is a prerequisite to accumulate evidence of time-varying reliability  ...  Optimal binary perceptual decision making requires accumulation of evidence in the form of a probability distribution that specifies the probability of the choices being correct given the evidence so far  ...  The authors show that, as long as the the neural variability encoding a particular stimulus is member of the large expoential family with linear sufficient statistics, important aspects of Bayesian inference  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.conb.2012.07.007 pmid:22884815 pmcid:PMC3513621 fatcat:iyrj224qnvcttaddv2ffilrtda

Optimal decision bounds for probabilistic population codes and time varying evidence

Jan Drugowitsch, Rubén Moreno-Bote, Alexandre Pouget
2011 Nature Precedings  
Decision making under time constraints requires trading off between making quick, inaccurate decisions and gathering more evidence for more accurate, but slower decisions.  ...  This theory also applies to the case of time varying evidence, a case that cannot be handled by the simple two-neuron model.  ...  Summary The optimal strategy Optimal decision making requires "Hypothesis might be testable in tasks with time-varying evidence time-varying bound on belief of being correct, and belief that  ... 
doi:10.1038/npre.2011.5821.1 fatcat:g3xbc2g3hvgsdaxbtalmm7jise

Dynamic weighting of multisensory stimuli shapes decision-making in rats and humans

J. P. Sheppard, D. Raposo, A. K. Churchland
2013 Journal of Vision  
(c) Regardless of sensory reliability, most subjects are disinclined to make "snap judgments" and instead base decisions on evidence presented over the majority of the trial duration.  ...  We report three main findings: (a) Sensory reliability influences how subjects weight multisensory evidence even for time-varying, stochastic stimuli.  ...  This underscores the importance of utilizing time-varying stimuli in studies of multisensory decision-making.  ... 
doi:10.1167/13.6.4 pmid:23658374 pmcid:PMC3649064 fatcat:ixawslcvtzhpnkmljyr2wquezu

Maximizing decision rate in multisensory integration

Jan Drugowitsch, Alexandre Pouget, Gregory DeAngelis, Dora Angelaki
2011 Nature Precedings  
Despite violating the standard tests of optimal cue combination, we show that subjects still accumulate evidence optimally across time and cue, even when the strength of the evidence varies over time.  ...  Effective decision-making in an uncertain world requires making use of all available information, even if distributed across several modalities, as well as trading off the speed of a decision with its  ...  Despite violating the standard tests of optimal cue combination, we show that subjects still accumulate evidence optimally across time and cue, even when the strength of the evidence varies over time.  ... 
doi:10.1038/npre.2011.5822.1 fatcat:du3bhfzobzgcpeuz6ipdjl7twa

Probabilistic Population Codes for Bayesian Decision Making

Jeffrey M. Beck, Wei Ji Ma, Roozbeh Kiani, Tim Hanks, Anne K. Churchland, Jamie Roitman, Michael N. Shadlen, Peter E. Latham, Alexandre Pouget
2008 Neuron  
When making a decision, one must first accumulate evidence, often over time, and then select the appropriate action.  ...  Here, we present a neural model of decision making that can perform both evidence accumulation and action selection optimally.  ...  Yet, it is essential to understand optimal decision making in the face of multiple choices and unknown and time-varying reliability, since most decisions we make fall into this category.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2008.09.021 pmid:19109917 pmcid:PMC2742921 fatcat:l7xadhkcxvghtdnr45dnrhv3ki

Time-Dependent Influence of Prior Probability: A Problem for the Drift-Diffusion Model?

J. X. O'Reilly
2011 Journal of Neuroscience  
The suggestion that long decision times are associated with low accuracy is borne out by behavioral evidence: for moving-dot stimuli with equal priors, Hanks et al. (2011) plotted the probability of a  ...  Thus, the value of v(t) drifts over time toward one of the decision bounds, with the rate of drift determined by the weight of evidence in favor of rightward versus leftward motion.  ...  However, the amount of time spent in evidence accumulation for ecologically optimal behavior must also depend on the relative cost of making an error as opposed to the benefit of making a correct decision  ... 
doi:10.1523/jneurosci.3253-11.2011 pmid:21957231 pmcid:PMC6633174 fatcat:khrrh7e7p5cwrkcxisnw3xud3y

Optimal policy for attention-modulated decisions explains human fixation behavior [article]

Anthony I Jang, Ravi Sharma, Jan Drugowitsch
2020 bioRxiv   pre-print
Traditional accumulation-to-bound decision-making models assume that all choice options are processed simultaneously with equal attention.  ...  We derive a normative decision-making model in which fixating a choice item boosts information about that item.  ...  response time for every trial.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.237057 fatcat:t7j5fbcslfcc7g6gzihb2y47ua

Making Decisions with Unknown Sensory Reliability

Sophie Deneve
2012 Frontiers in Neuroscience  
Most of the time, we cannot know this reliability without first observing the decision outcome.  ...  It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion  ...  FIGURE 2 | 2 Bayesian decision making with varying levels of motion coherence.  ... 
doi:10.3389/fnins.2012.00075 pmid:22679418 pmcid:PMC3367295 fatcat:qwqvp6orxfccxlzzoi52sn4pja

Optimal multisensory decision-making in a reaction-time task

Jan Drugowitsch, Gregory C DeAngelis, Eliana M Klier, Dora E Angelaki, Alexandre Pouget
2014 eLife  
Little is known about whether optimality is preserved when subjects can choose when to make a decision (reaction-time task), nor when sensory inputs have time-varying reliability.  ...  We created a computational model that accumulates evidence optimally across both cues and time, and trades off accuracy with decision speed.  ...  multiple cues vary dynamically over time and subjects make rapid decisions when they have acquired sufficient evidence.  ... 
doi:10.7554/elife.03005 pmid:24929965 pmcid:PMC4102720 fatcat:qedegjraizdvnk6a65ey365zs4

Individual Confidence-Weighting and Group Decision-Making

James A.R. Marshall, Gavin Brown, Andrew N. Radford
2017 Trends in Ecology & Evolution  
General rights This document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. Full terms of use are available:  ...  Supplemental Information Supplemental information associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at tree.2017.06.004.  ...  The DDM achieves the minimum possible expected decision time for a decision with a desired expected error rate, achieved by varying the decision thresholds.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.tree.2017.06.004 pmid:28739079 fatcat:2w2is3sifvcw3keqmynf37ljlu

Optimal models of decision-making in dynamic environments [article]

Zachary P. Kilpatrick, William R. Holmes, Tahra L. Eissa, Krešimir Josić
2018 arXiv   pre-print
Characterization of performance requires the derivation and analysis of computational models of optimal decision-making policies on such tasks.  ...  Nature is in constant flux, so animals must account for changes in their environment when making decisions.  ...  (Aii) Optimal decision policies require time-varying decision thresholds.  ... 
arXiv:1812.01727v2 fatcat:bfx4czn4brgf5kdptcmf4bpw4e

Imperfect Bayesian inference in visual perception

Elina Stengård, Ronald van den Berg, Wolfgang Einhäuser
2019 PLoS Computational Biology  
Optimal Bayesian models have been highly successful in describing human performance on perceptual decision-making tasks, such as cue combination and visual search.  ...  Our data are best explained by a model that is based on the optimal decision strategy, but with imperfections in its execution.  ...  Only evidence for Bayesian decision-making without imprecisions should be considered as evidence for optimal behavior.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006465 fatcat:l54b3cfgifhopftowuap6u4hie

Neural Correlates of Optimal Multisensory Decision Making [article]

Han Hou, Qihao Zheng, Yuchen Zhao, Alexandre Pouget, Yong Gu
2018 bioRxiv   pre-print
Here we show multisensory evidence with time-varying reliability can be accumulated near optimally, in a Bayesian sense, by simply taking time-invariant linear combinations of neural activity across time  ...  AbstractPerceptual decisions are often based on multiple sensory inputs whose reliabilities rapidly vary over time, yet little is known about how our brain integrates these inputs to optimize behavior.  ...  In this case, the momentary evidence must be linearly combined with weights proportional to the 56 time-varying reliabilities, which requires that the synaptic weights change on a very fast time scale  ... 
doi:10.1101/480178 fatcat:4yyitklyjvggnkd3l2xttcpoja

The dynamics of multimodal integration: The averaging diffusion model

Brandon M. Turner, Juan Gao, Scott Koenig, Dylan Palfy, James L. McClelland
2017 Psychonomic Bulletin & Review  
Turner and Juan Gao contributed equally on this project. sources of evidence as their relative reliability changes during evidence integration, others exhibit patterns inconsistent with optimality.  ...  Many studies have formulated sensory processing as a dynamic process where noisy samples of evidence are accumulated until a decision is made.  ...  The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the article.  ... 
doi:10.3758/s13423-017-1255-2 pmid:28275990 fatcat:elrwsyz76rg4xercpyxlunuuky
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