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Optimal Time Delay in the Control of Epidemic [chapter]

Zhenggang Wang, Kwok Yip Szeto, Frederick Chi-Ching Leung
2009 Studies in Computational Intelligence  
A mathematical model to address the efficiency of the isolation and quarantine strategies in the containment of epidemics is constructed based on the SIR model with time delay.  ...  The model also provides a theoretical framework for the estimation of the cost involved in the containment of the epidemics.  ...  guideline for the calculation of the optimal time delay (not the shortest) and the proper quarantine period (not too long but sufficient to contain the epidemics).  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-642-03211-0_21 fatcat:xp5q7ewc75babmyr4go6veklue

Time-optimal control strategies in SIR epidemic models [article]

Luca Bolzoni, Elena Bonacini, Cinzia Soresina, Maria Groppi
2017 arXiv   pre-print
When a switch occurs, the optimal strategy is to delay the control action some amount of time and then apply the control at the maximum rate for the remainder of the outbreak.  ...  We investigate the time-optimal control problem in SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic models, focusing on different control policies: vaccination, isolation, culling, and reduction of transmission  ...  LB was supported by the Italian Ministry of Health (grant IZSLER -PRC2014003). Support by INdAM-GNFM is also gratefully acknowledged by EB, CS and MG.  ... 
arXiv:1706.04447v1 fatcat:g6gfponbbbbj5jj3fpfcd5pje4

Time-optimal control strategies in SIR epidemic models

Luca Bolzoni, Elena Bonacini, Cinzia Soresina, Maria Groppi
2017 Mathematical Biosciences  
When a switch occurs, the optimal strategy is to delay the control action some amount of time and then apply the control at the maximum rate for the remainder of the outbreak.  ...  We investigate the time-optimal control problem in SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic models, focusing on different control policies: vaccination, isolation, culling, and reduction of transmission  ...  LB was supported by the Italian Ministry of Health (grant IZSLER PRC2014003). Support by INdAM-GNFM is also gratefully acknowledged by EB, CS and MG.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2017.07.011 pmid:28801246 pmcid:PMC7094293 fatcat:4o5aoq2pfrbkvhgr2kkq3iyyzm

Prevention and Control Strategy for Multi-group Epidemics Based on Delay and Isolation Control

LIU Shu-guang, CHEN Xiao-long, ZHANG Xing-xing, CHEN Wu-yang
2020 2020 Chinese Automation Congress (CAC)  
of the disease can be predicted In order to Abstract-Aiming at the prevention and control of multigroup epidemics, the dynamic model of disease transmission is established, and an optimal delay and isolation  ...  It is because of the timely adoption of delay and isolation control strategy of "early detection and early isolation" and "joint-prevention and jointcontrol", China took the lead in the fight against the  ...  of the disease can be predicted In order to Abstract-Aiming at the prevention and control of multigroup epidemics, the dynamic model of disease transmission is established, and an optimal delay and isolation  ... 
doi:10.1109/cac51589.2020.9327877 fatcat:6wlc4edq25gsrncplrrqbuz6ka

Centrality-Based Traffic Restriction in Delayed Epidemic Networks [article]

Atefe Darabi, Milad Siami
2020 arXiv   pre-print
When considering the influence of delay on the disease propagation in epidemic networks, depending on the value of the time-delay and the network topology, the peak of epidemic could be considerably different  ...  The average time it takes to develop the symptoms causes a delay in the spread dynamics of the disease.  ...  The detailed results of the performance improvement through optimal and robust epidemic controls are represented in Table.  ... 
arXiv:2010.00398v2 fatcat:xu3h3gornncfxppncibdkrd5v4

A new delay-SIR model for pulse vaccination

C. Briat, E.I. Verriest
2009 Biomedical Signal Processing and Control  
Finally, we develop an optimal campaign vaccination strategy based on recent results on the impulsive control of time-delay systems.  ...  The main difference between classical SIR-model resides in the fact that the recovery rate of the population is expressed as a distributed-delay term modeling the time spent being sick by infected people  ...  It is assumed that individuals stay in this class for a fixed period of time and hence such a model involves delays.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.bspc.2009.06.003 fatcat:4ccyhjwbxres5ibhtmoepelaoy

A New Delay-SIR Model for Pulse Vaccination

C. Briat, E.I. Verriest
2008 IFAC Proceedings Volumes  
Finally, we develop an optimal campaign vaccination strategy based on recent results on the impulsive control of time-delay systems.  ...  The main difference between classical SIR-model resides in the fact that the recovery rate of the population is expressed as a distributed-delay term modeling the time spent being sick by infected people  ...  It is assumed that individuals stay in this class for a fixed period of time and hence such a model involves delays.  ... 
doi:10.3182/20080706-5-kr-1001.01742 fatcat:emrwr2scy5f5fdvxc6ivleammm

Optimal monotone forwarding policies in delay tolerant mobile ad-hoc networks

Eitan Altman, Tamer Başar, Francesco De Pellegrini
2010 Performance evaluation (Print)  
We study in this paper fluid approximations for a class of monotone relay policies in delay tolerant ad-hoc networks. This class includes the epidemic routing and the two-hops routing protocols.  ...  We compute both the optimal static value of p as well as the optimal time dependent value of p.  ...  We then solve in Section 4 the static control problems and establish the structure of optimal dynamic control policies.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.peva.2009.09.001 fatcat:rzuz2q5edreknmd6bra2mstbam

Optimal Monotone Forwarding Policies in Delay Tolerant Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

Eitan Altman, Tamer Basar, Francesco De Pellegrini
2008 Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools  
We study in this paper fluid approximations for a class of monotone relay policies in delay tolerant ad-hoc networks. This class includes the epidemic routing and the two-hops routing protocols.  ...  We compute both the optimal static value of p as well as the optimal time dependent value of p.  ...  We then solve in Section 4 the static control problems and establish the structure of optimal dynamic control policies.  ... 
doi:10.4108/icst.valuetools2008.4430 dblp:conf/valuetools/AltmanBP08 fatcat:mhaa2p7v7reavafu4bjvtcxeyi

Optimizing Real-Time Vaccine Allocation in a Stochastic SIR Model

Chantal Nguyen, Jean M. Carlson, Yamir Moreno
2016 PLoS ONE  
Limited vaccine, time delays, and interaction (or coupling) of cities lead to tradeoffs that impact the overall magnitude of the epidemic.  ...  We then identify tradeoffs between vaccine, time delay, and coupling, and we determine the optimal vaccination protocols resulting from these tradeoffs.  ...  Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge Edwin Yuan for helpful discussions. Author Contributions  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0152950 pmid:27043931 pmcid:PMC4820222 fatcat:3hujutmi2neqdddadeg2jovnzq

Optimal control of a SIR epidemic model with general incidence function and a time delays

Moussa Barro, Aboudramane Guiro, Dramane Ouedraogo
2018 Cubo (Temuco)  
In this paper, we introduce an optimal control for a SIR model governed by an ODE system with time delay.  ...  We consider two control strategies in the optimal control model, namely: the vaccination and treatment strategies. The model has a time delays that represent the incubation period.  ...  Dramane OUEDRAOGO wrote mathematical formula, he bring up the control strategy and did all the calculus with the second author. All the authors read and approved the final manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.4067/s0719-06462018000200053 fatcat:6hyymp5gjfcndbxdddqgyfbeka

Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control

Dylan H. Morris, Fernando W. Rossine, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin
2021 Communications Physics  
Here we derive the theoretically optimal strategy for using a time-limited intervention to reduce the peak prevalence of a novel disease in the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered epidemic model.  ...  But neither the optimal strategy nor any of these near-optimal strategies is robust to implementation error: small errors in timing the intervention produce large increases in peak prevalence.  ...  S.A.L. gratefully acknowledges financial support in the form of a gift from Google, LLC. for work on COVID-19.  ... 
doi:10.1038/s42005-021-00570-y fatcat:5oy2b4xy45de7kv5erunjdwbim

Optimality of a time-dependent treatment profile during an epidemic

Majid Jaberi-Douraki, Seyed M. Moghadas
2013 Journal of Biological Dynamics  
We demonstrate that both the rate of resistance emergence and the relative transmissibility of the resistant strain play important roles in determining the optimal timing and level of treatment profile  ...  We consider the problem under the assumption of limited drug stockpile and show that as the size of stockpile increases, a longer delay in start of treatment is required to minimize the total number of  ...  This work was supported in part by Mprime and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Journal of Biological Dynamics  ... 
doi:10.1080/17513758.2013.816377 pmid:23859002 pmcid:PMC3753656 fatcat:6kbwo4ykcfb5nh7dm3xv6acwyi

PROBLEM OF OPTIMAL CONTROL OF EPIDEMIC IN VIEW OF LATENT PERIOD

N. I. Ovsyannikova
2017 Naučnyj Vestnik MGTU GA  
The problem of optimal control of epidemic through vaccination and isolation, taking into account latent period is considered.  ...  The result of numerical implementation of discrete problem of optimal control is given.  ...  In this paper, taking into account latent period, we consider the problem of optimal control of the epidemic, which is described by a system of ordinary differential equations with delayed argument.  ... 
doaj:4c413c0c10474a339ec240d3263b2273 fatcat:6gbxy3xoerc2xe4itsfsctoh6e

How optimal allocation of limited testing capacity changes epidemic dynamics [article]

Justin M Calabrese, Jeffery Demers
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
Optimizing the deployment of limited testing resources has therefore emerged as a keystone problem in pandemic response planning.  ...  We then solve for the optimal mix of clinical and non-clinical testing as a function of both testing capacity and the information parameter.  ...  Ministry for Science, Culture and Tourism (SMWK) with tax funds on the basis of the budget approved by the Saxon State Parliament.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.12.21.20248431 fatcat:ih5ewwbrnjditnfqarb4x5ozr4
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