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How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19? [article]

Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Jan Markus Brauner, Gavin Leech, Anna B. Stephenson, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Jan Kulveit, Yee Whye Teh, Leonid Chindelevitch, Yarin Gal
2020 arXiv   pre-print
To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make?  ...  Focusing on models that assume transmission noise, we find that previously published results are remarkably robust across these variables.  ...  Acknowledgments We thank Laurence Aitchison for helpful comments leading to the Additive Effect Model. We thank Tom Rainforth, Eric Nalisnick and Andreas Kirsch for comments on the manuscript.  ... 
arXiv:2007.13454v3 fatcat:smldmcbivjbw7fyjkjbrm76j7q

Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Thomas P. Smith, Seth Flaxman, Amanda S. Gallinat, Sylvia P. Kinosian, Michael Stemkovski, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Oliver J. Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lorenzo Cattarino, Ilaria Dorigatti, Michael Tristem, William D. Pearse
2021 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies.  ...  As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission.  ...  The authors declare no competing interest.y  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.2019284118 pmid:34103391 fatcat:2ko5pqv3ebgcrokoivd3fy5cei

Simulated Identification of Silent COVID-19 Infections Among Children and Estimated Future Infection Rates With Vaccination

Seyed M Moghadas, Meagan C Fitzpatrick, Affan Shoukat, Kevin Zhang, Alison P Galvani
2021 JAMA Network Open  
The estimated effect of identifying silent infections was robust in sensitivity analyses with respect to vaccine efficacy against infection and reduced susceptibility of children to infection.  ...  This study used an age-structured disease transmission model, parameterized with census data and estimates from published literature, to simulate the estimated synergistic effect of interventions in reducing  ...  First, we did not explicitly include the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions, but instead calibrated the model to current estimates of the effective reproduction number that implicitly accounts  ... 
doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.7097 pmid:33890990 pmcid:PMC8065378 fatcat:qu46r5gbunepjgjmheinjbjj7a

Simulation-Based Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infections Associated With School Closures and Community-Based Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Ontario, Canada

David Naimark, Sharmistha Mishra, Kali Barrett, Yasin A Khan, Stephen Mac, Raphael Ximenes, Beate Sander
2021 JAMA Network Open  
Resurgent COVID-19 cases have resulted in the reinstitution of nonpharmaceutical interventions, including school closures, which can have adverse effects on families.  ...  To estimate the association of schools being open or closed with the number of COVID-19 cases compared with community-based nonpharmaceutical interventions.  ...  estimated reduction in COVID-19 cases derived from keeping schools closed should be balanced against the adverse effects on children and families.  ... 
doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.3793 pmid:33787909 pmcid:PMC8013816 fatcat:kpmfhjow5bfdflrxgo6bsji464

Identifying silent COVID-19 infections among children is critical for controlling the pandemic [article]

Seyed M. Moghadas, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Affan Shoukat, Kevin Zhang, Alison P. Galvani
2021 biorxiv/medrxiv  
Main Outcomes and Measures: Vaccination of adults was implemented to reach a 40% coverage over the course of one year with a vaccine efficacy of 95% against symptomatic and severe COVID-19.  ...  Design: This study used an age-structured disease transmission model to simulate the synergistic impact of interventions in reducing attack rates over the course of one year.  ...  First, we did not explicitly include the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions, but instead calibrated the model to current estimates of the effective reproduction number that implicitly accounts  ... 
doi:10.1101/2021.01.06.21249349 pmid:33442702 pmcid:PMC7805462 fatcat:vvfm4drzofdc5ajnoxkz4aoeuq

Association of Simulated COVID-19 Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality

Mehul D Patel, Erik Rosenstrom, Julie S Ivy, Maria E Mayorga, Pinar Keskinocak, Ross M Boyce, Kristen Hassmiller Lich, Raymond L Smith, Karl T Johnson, Paul L Delamater, Julie L Swann
2021 JAMA Network Open  
Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.  ...  The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood.  ...  the greatest effect on ending the current COVID-19 pandemic.  ... 
doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.10782 pmid:34061203 pmcid:PMC8170542 fatcat:wzkgbj4tw5gtjnjork5jphatl4

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

Jan M Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Anna B Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad (+7 others)
2020 Science  
Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood.  ...  We estimate the effectiveness of NPIs, ranging from limiting gathering sizes, business closures, and closure of educational institutions to stay-at-home orders.  ...  CONCLUSION: We estimated the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 41 countries during the first wave of the pandemic.  ... 
doi:10.1126/science.abd9338 pmid:33323424 pmcid:PMC7877495 fatcat:p7sw6r4egze57fk2oz6qwpuuou

Mask-Wearing During the COVID-19 Pandemic [article]

Ashwin Aravindakshan, Jörn Boehnke, Ehsan Gholami, Ashutosh Nayak
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
These estimates remain robust across multiple sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Face mask usage as a preventative measure against the transmission of COVID-19 varies widely across countries.  ...  wearing on mitigating the transmission of infectious respiratory diseases.  ...  Conclusions The population-wide usage of face masks as a preventative measure against the transmission of COVID-19 varies widely across countries.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.09.11.20192971 fatcat:2dmzwp4vrjfg5pmloebin2r5ga

Scientific and ethical basis for social-distancing interventions against COVID-19

Joseph A Lewnard, Nathan C Lo
2020 Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)  
These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.  ...  The study findings give an estimate of the overall case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (95% CrI 1·23-1·53), which becomes higher as age increases (figure) .  ...  Lancet Infect Dis 2020; published online March 30. https://doi.org/10.1016/S14733099(20)302437. 8 Scientific and ethical basis for social-distancing interventions against COVID-19 On Dec 31, 2019,  ... 
doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30190-0 pmid:32213329 pmcid:PMC7118670 fatcat:niyikljfkbh4xc3s4euc6i6aqa

Do school closures reduce community transmission of COVID-19? A systematic review of observational studies [article]

Sebastian Walsh, Avirup Chowdhury, Simon Russell, Vickie Braithwaite, Joseph Ward, Claire Waddington, Carol Brayne, Chris Bonell, Russell M Viner, Oliver Mytton
2021 medRxiv   pre-print
We included empirical studies with quantitative estimates of the effect of school closures/reopenings on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission.  ...  On 12 October 2020 we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, the WHO Global COVID-19 Research Database, ERIC, the British Education Index, and the Australian Education Index.  ...  The effectiveness and perceived burden of nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission: a modelling //medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.28.20116129 19.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2021.01.02.21249146 fatcat:t2ut5u4fbbe6fbbd76s3o4a5ee

The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures ‐ A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach [article]

Reinhold Kosfeld, Timo Mitze, Johannes Rode, Klaus Waelde
2020 biorxiv/medrxiv   pre-print
Since mid-March 2020 the Federal and state governments in Germany agreed on comprehensive public health measures to contain the spread of Covid-19.  ...  We study the effects of the policy actions on the progression of the pandemic in the first containment period in spring 2020 before easing of measures have started to work by the end of April.  ...  | LITERATURE REVIEW This section reviews the available prior evidence on the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to suppress the spread of Covid-19 in Germany.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.12.15.20248173 fatcat:jmkfosn2cbadpexuoml56c2aje

Are some COVID vaccines better than others? Interpreting and comparing estimates of efficacy in trials of COVID-19 vaccines

Rekha R Rapaka, Elizabeth A Hammershaimb, Kathleen M Neuzil
2021 Clinical Infectious Diseases  
COVID-19 vaccine trials provide valuable insight into the safety and efficacy of vaccines, with individually-randomized, placebo-controlled trials being the gold standard in trial design.  ...  In this Viewpoint, we discuss critical variables to consider when comparing efficacy measurements across current and future COVID-19 vaccine trials.  ...  For example, the estimate of efficacy between the first and second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is 52.4% against any protocol-defined COVID-19 disease, but the efficacy estimate increased  ... 
doi:10.1093/cid/ciab213 pmid:33693552 fatcat:t7gjuthyqrfpliw3nd3rebbmpe

Flatten the Curve!

Thomas Wieland
2020 REGION  
Since the emerging of the "novel coronavirus" SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world.  ...  On the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based on reported cases of infections, aiming at determining the regional growth rate of infections and the point of inflection  ...  Early modeling studies focusing on the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions are based on these (or similar) assumptions (an der Heiden, .  ... 
doi:10.18335/region.v7i2.324 fatcat:nhrgah5ehbcvtfgtrr5nszjbam

Revealing Opinions for COVID-19 Questions: Context Retriever and Opinion Aggregating Question-Answering (Preprint)

Zhaohua Lu, Xiaoqing Wang1, Xintong Li
2020 Journal of Medical Internet Research  
The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method in answering COVID-19-related questions with main opinions and capturing the trends of research about COVID-19 and other relevant strains of  ...  However, the research regarding COVID-19 is largely ongoing and inconclusive.  ...  Acknowledgments The research work of ZH-L and JXW was in part supported by the Department of Biostatistics at St Jude Children's Research Hospital (SJCRH) and the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities  ... 
doi:10.2196/22860 pmid:33739287 fatcat:jrnur4zm25e33nl6aomrhjjg44

Modelling Suggests Limited Change in the Reproduction Number from Reopening Norwegian Kindergartens and Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic [article]

Martin Rypdal, Veronika Gjertsen Rypdal, Per Kirsten Jakobsen, Elinor Ytterstad, Ola Lovsletten, Claus Klingenberg, Kristoffer Rypdal
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
To suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020.  ...  Conclusion: We found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed  ...  Introduction In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the governments of most countries have introduced nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to limit the spread of the virus.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.08.14.20174896 fatcat:32wa6yz6fzd7fkm5c44ddumzfq
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