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On the Duration and Intensity of Competitions in Nonlinear Pólya Urn Processes with Fitness [article]

Bo Jiang, Daniel R. Figueiredo, Bruno Ribeiro, Don Towsley
2017 arXiv   pre-print
Our findings can shed light on the application of P\'olya urn processes in more general contexts where fitness and nonlinearity may be present.  ...  We give rigorous mathematical characterizations of the tail distributions of both duration and intensity under the various regimes for fitness and nonlinearity, which reveal very interesting behaviors.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported in part by Army Research Office Contract W911NF-12-1-0385, and ARL Cooperative Agreement W911NF-09-2-0053. D.  ... 
arXiv:1604.02097v3 fatcat:t6yv2juy2zcspl4m4wsfjmmwly

On the Duration and Intensity of Competitions in Nonlinear Pólya Urn Processes with Fitness

Bo Jiang, Daniel R. Figueiredo, Bruno Ribeiro, Don Towsley
2016 Performance Evaluation Review  
Our findings can shed light on the application of Pólya urn processes in more general contexts where fitness and nonlinearity may be present.  ...  The oldest and arguably simplest mathematical model that embodies this general principle is the Pólya urn process, which finds applications in a myriad of problems.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported in part by Army Research Office Contract W911NF-12-1-0385, and ARL Cooperative Agreement W911NF-09-2-0053. D.  ... 
doi:10.1145/2964791.2901475 fatcat:jd5bqbnpavhh5ernkttscwushu

On the Duration and Intensity of Competitions in Nonlinear Pólya Urn Processes with Fitness

Bo Jiang, Daniel R. Figueiredo, Bruno Ribeiro, Don Towsley
2016 Proceedings of the 2016 ACM SIGMETRICS International Conference on Measurement and Modeling of Computer Science - SIGMETRICS '16  
Our findings can shed light on the application of Pólya urn processes in more general contexts where fitness and nonlinearity may be present.  ...  The oldest and arguably simplest mathematical model that embodies this general principle is the Pólya urn process, which finds applications in a myriad of problems.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported in part by Army Research Office Contract W911NF-12-1-0385, and ARL Cooperative Agreement W911NF-09-2-0053. D.  ... 
doi:10.1145/2896377.2901475 dblp:conf/sigmetrics/JiangFRT16 fatcat:j34vacit3ndqjar6jbmpqzoqae

On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

Bo Jiang, Liyuan Sun, Daniel R Figueiredo, Bruno Ribeiro, Don Towsley
2015 Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment  
The role of skill (fitness) and luck (randomness) as driving forces on the dynamics of resource accumulation in a myriad of systems have long puzzled scientists.  ...  When such competitions are driven by externalities such as cumulative advantage (CA), the rich-get-richer effect, little is known with respect to fundamental properties such as their duration and intensity  ...  A natural problem here is to characterize the duration and intensity of nonlinear CA competitions, where the interaction between CA and fitness becomes more complicated.  ... 
doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2015/11/p11022 fatcat:b2v5p4enlrfgtf2mhoxbjarxia

Social Learning and Diffusion of Pervasive Goods: An Empirical Study of an African App Store [article]

Meisam Hejazi Nia, Brian T. Ratchford, Norris Bruce
2017 arXiv   pre-print
In this study, the authors develop a structural model that combines a macro diffusion model with a micro choice model to control for the effect of social influence on the mobile app choices of customers  ...  Using a large data set from an African app store and Bayesian estimation methods, the authors quantify the effect of social influence and investigate the impact of ignoring this process in estimating customer  ...  The Polya Urn process also has the same structure. In this process, the experimenter begins by drawing balls with different colors from the urn.  ... 
arXiv:1702.06661v1 fatcat:eix6hfbll5dhpg2jofttrcevxy

Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment

G Dosi, M C Pereira, A Roventini, M E Virgillito
2018 Industrial and Corporate Change  
Building upon the "Schumpeter meeting Keynes" family of models (cf. in particular Dosi et al. (2016b Dosi et al. ( , 2017c ), we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers' skills and a state-dependent  ...  process of firms entry.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors thank the Guest Editors of the Special Section; two anonymous referees, Engelbert Stockhammer and Federico Tamagni; and  ... 
doi:10.1093/icc/dty010 fatcat:o2pc7ljjpras7ddl7aghv3d2ea

Blockbuster or Niche? Competitive Strategy Under Network Effects

Yinbo Feng, Ming Hu
2017 Social Science Research Network  
However, product variety and quality investments, as an outcome of firms' ex-ante competitive decisions, may increase or decrease, as the network effect grows.  ...  In this sense, the (positive) network effect seemingly can also contribute to the phenomenon of long and flat tail.  ...  It is noted that d(t) is what is referred to as nonlinear Pólya urn process and x(t) is a corresponding discrete stochastic process.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.3049370 fatcat:wdtlys7jcnhqjbwh4ifrwd7pk4

The economics of path-dependence in industrial organization

Cristiano Antonelli
1997 International Journal of Industrial Organization  
environment; hence it provides a framework to understand and to model the effects of historic time on the behaviour of agents which are able at each point in time to modify their evolution. © 1997 Elsevier  ...  It makes it possible to allow both for the effects of past behaviour of agents on the structure of the environment and the Lamarckian survival of agents by learning and adaptation to the character of the  ...  Acknowledgments The comments of Paul A. David, Ian Steedman, Stan Metcalfe, Robin Cowan, Mario Calderini, Franco Malerba, Dominique Foray, Steven Martin and Dennis  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0167-7187(97)00006-4 fatcat:bsja4wb4bvfhhbq4nksbz25ode

Social Big Data Analytics of Consumer Choices: A Two Sided Online Platform Perspective [article]

Meisam Hejazi Nia
2017 arXiv   pre-print
Using a large data set from eBay and empirical Bayesian estimation method, I quantify the bidders' anticipation of regret in various product categories, and investigate the role of experience in explaining  ...  The second essay investigates bidders' anticipated winner and loser regret in the context of the eBay online auction platform.  ...  The Polya Urn process has also the same structure. In this process, the experimenter starts by drawing balls with different colors from the urn.  ... 
arXiv:1702.07074v1 fatcat:suq27p5v6ree5mdlzqzm5lvhpq

On Fitting Finite Dirichlet Mixture Using ECM and MML [chapter]

Nizar Bouguila, Djemel Ziou
2005 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
We study a fluid system with single on/off source in which the active (on) and silent periods (off) follow General and Exponential distributions respectively.  ...  Fluid queue models play a vital role in the performance analysis of computer and telecommunication networks.  ...  In particular, by means of known and newly defined generalised Polya urn schemes, several types of pure jump particle processes are introduced, describing the evolution in time of an exchangeable population  ... 
doi:10.1007/11551188_19 fatcat:gtzi5u6emvfyxea3zbklobnvom

Diffusion of technologies and social behavior

1992 Long range planning  
These are very timely questions in view of the encouraging process I A smaller selection of conference papers entitled "From Democracy to Chain Saws: New Perspectives on Innovation Diffusion" is to be  ...  We would like to extend particular thanks to the conference co-organizers Storen Wibe (University of Umea) who actively participated in shaping the event and aided in obtaining financial support for the  ...  Herzog of the Ohio Department of Health for his encouragement, and for providing the data on which the analyses in this chapter are based. Comments and criticisms by Drs. L.A. Brown, S.A. Foster, W.  ... 
doi:10.1016/0024-6301(92)90221-m fatcat:id6e46ez5zbzhorfmwbxaj5gku

Multiscale Structure in Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics [article]

Blake C. Stacey
2015 arXiv   pre-print
Evolutionary game theory reveals the novel effects which can result from multiplayer games, nonlinear payoffs and ecological stochasticity.  ...  Replicator dynamics in an environment with mesoscale structure relates to generalized conditionalization rules in probability theory.  ...  This is the Pólya urn model [221, 222] , and in this case, if we begin with R red balls and G green balls, p(E m ) = N ! m!(N − m)! (m + R − 1)!(N − m + G − 1)! (N + R + G − 1)! (R + G − 1)! (R − 1)!  ... 
arXiv:1509.02958v1 fatcat:pr2t7t3fxbej7asibkvjgareja

Augmented CycleGANs for Continuous Scale Normal-to-Lombard Speaking Style Conversion

Shreyas Seshadri, Lauri Juvela, Paavo Alku, Okko Räsänen
2019 Interspeech 2019  
; Pitman, 1995; Pitman et al., 2002) or Pólya urn scheme (Hoppe, 1984) ).  ...  Overall, the thesis work has shown that state-of-the-art ML models can be used to tackle a variety of speech processing problems with a competitive performance when focusing on suprasegmental signal structures  ... 
doi:10.21437/interspeech.2019-1681 dblp:conf/interspeech/SeshadriJAR19 fatcat:tfobvlkjv5dvdeaxvzby3mb2y4

Vol. 6, No. 2 (Full Issue)

2007 Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods  
Five data sets with known true values are used to determine the optimal number of pairs that should be trimmed in order to produce the minimum relative error.  ...  The optimal trimming in the five data sets is found to be 1%, 5%, 7%, 10% and 28%. The 28% rate is shown to be an outlier among the five data sets.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Paula Smith for manuscript editing and formatting assistance. Moye for helpful comments in a previous version of this manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.22237/jmasm/1193891520 fatcat:7pu36m2b6zaohnrycwzo3jq35q

Bibliography [chapter]

Jeff Horn
Economic Development in Early Modern France  
Margolis (1995), along with the latter's interpretation of 'lock-in' and 'accidents of history' are shown at best to be of limited usefulness in the study historical phenomena, and misleading as to the  ...  history of the process itself.  ...  Such migrations cannot occur under the Polya process, because as more and more balls are added to the urn, the effect of each increment upon the distribution of colors must become weaker and weaker.  ... 
doi:10.1017/cbo9781107110076.009 fatcat:ekox33stnnazvhcvccwt6jbhje
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