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On Focal Loss for Class-Posterior Probability Estimation: A Theoretical Perspective [article]

Nontawat Charoenphakdee, Jayakorn Vongkulbhisal, Nuttapong Chairatanakul, Masashi Sugiyama
2020 arXiv   pre-print
probability and thus it is not reliable as a class-posterior probability estimator.  ...  Through experiments on benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that our proposed transformation significantly improves the accuracy of class-posterior probability estimation.  ...  Acknowledgment We would like to thank Zhenguo Wu, Yivan Zhang, Zhenghang Cui, and Han Bao for helpful discussion.  ... 
arXiv:2011.09172v2 fatcat:xwg5z5uto5ggll6a6zodxpwtzi

Confidence Estimation via Auxiliary Models [article]

Charles Corbière, Nicolas Thome, Antoine Saporta, Tuan-Hung Vu, Matthieu Cord, Patrick Pérez
2021 arXiv   pre-print
We show that TCP offers better properties for confidence estimation than standard maximum class probability (MCP).  ...  In this paper, we introduce a novel target criterion for model confidence, namely the true class probability (TCP).  ...  The influence of the loss (MSE, BCE, Focal Loss or Ranking based on TCP) is analysed for SVHN, CIFAR10 and CamVid in Table 9 .  ... 
arXiv:2012.06508v2 fatcat:i7r2xk4qyng6vdtyrnbbv4xxgq

Information theoretic sensor data selection for active object recognition and state estimation

J. Denzler, C.M. Brown
2002 IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence  
We introduce a formalism for optimal sensor parameter selection for iterative state estimation in static systems.  ...  Thus, a sequential decision process can be formed by treating the a priori probability at a certain time step in the decision process as the a posteriori probability of the previous time step.  ...  Jacobs for discerning reviews of the manuscript and B. Madden for his detailed comments and discussions.  ... 
doi:10.1109/34.982896 fatcat:gxqok5y5x5d6td2djefn4zzdcu

Security Bid/Ask Dynamics with Discreteness and Clustering: Simple Strategies for Modeling and Estimation

Joel Hasbrouck
1998 Social Science Research Network  
The Gibbs sampler provides a convenient vehicle for estimation. The model is estimated for daily and intradaily US Dollar/Deutschemark Reuters quotes.  ...  to lie on "natural" multiples of the tick size).  ...  Given the observed quotes (bid=15,000; ask=15,005), the right-most graphs depict the posteriors. (The posterior estimate of the clustering probability is k=0.40.)  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.59768 fatcat:aqtzputfdrejjlnjyjvjhlef2a

Security bid/ask dynamics with discreteness and clustering: Simple strategies for modeling and estimation

Joel Hasbrouck
1999 Journal of financial markets  
The Gibbs sampler provides a convenient vehicle for estimation. The model is estimated for daily and intradaily US Dollar/Deutschemark Reuters quotes.  ...  to lie on "natural" multiples of the tick size).  ...  Given the observed quotes (bid=15,000; ask=15,005), the right-most graphs depict the posteriors. (The posterior estimate of the clustering probability is k=0.40.)  ... 
doi:10.1016/s1386-4181(98)00008-1 fatcat:lz7lchose5acvifbrqt3owo6ze

Estimation of Orientation and Camera Parameters from Cryo-Electron Microscopy Images with Variational Autoencoders and Generative Adversarial Networks [article]

Nina Miolane, Frédéric Poitevin, Yee-Ting Li, Susan Holmes
2021 arXiv   pre-print
There is a need for next-generation algorithms that preserve accuracy while improving speed and scalability.  ...  As such, it represents one of the most promising imaging techniques in structural biology.  ...  Acknowledgments We thank Khanh Dao Duc and TJ Lane for very helpful comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript, and Daniel Ratner and Cornelius Gati for stimulating discussions and support throughout  ... 
arXiv:1911.08121v2 fatcat:l2snznfj6bgoznvkbotzyx4c6y

Stature Estimation [chapter]

2005 Fundamentals of Forensic Anthropology  
Her study pointed to a roughly linear loss from reported maximum stature for both men and women, probably beginning at age 45.  ...  A more subtle source of error is that estimates of age in older adults encompass very large ranges, so picking a mean age estimate for subsequently estimating stature loss is an approximation that may  ... 
doi:10.1002/0470007729.ch7 fatcat:yq7zg4lo3zc5npgmplpg6rtzfm

A Bayes Linear Bayes Method for Estimation of Correlated Event Rates

John Quigley, Kevin J. Wilson, Lesley Walls, Tim Bedford
2013 Risk Analysis  
A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates. Risk Analysis, 33 (12).  ...  We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process.  ...  Whereas a Bayesian analysis is based on subjective probability in the form of a probability distribution for the unknowns in the analysis, Bayes linear methods are instead based on expected values.  ... 
doi:10.1111/risa.12035 pmid:23551053 fatcat:vjsd2ggbz5gkjohru4effof33y

Non-parametric Bayesian density estimation for biological sequence space with applications to pre-mRNA splicing and the karyotypic diversity of human cancer [article]

Wei-Chia Chen, Juannan Zhou, Jason Meyer Sheltzer, Justin Block Kinney, David Martin McCandlish
2020 bioRxiv   pre-print
One common strategy for addressing this problem is to estimate the probability distribution using maximum entropy, i.e. calculating point estimates for some set of correlations based on the observed sequences  ...  Building on recent advances in Bayesian field-theoretic density estimation, we present a generalization of this maximum entropy approach that provides greater expressivity in regions of sequence space  ...  S1b for posterior variance estimates).  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.11.25.399253 fatcat:pzxkhidgi5dx3i7pm572uz2tdy

Missing data estimation in fMRI dynamic causal modeling

Shaza B. Zaghlool, Christopher L. Wyatt
2014 Frontiers in Neuroscience  
one of four candidate methods: zero-filling, average-filling, noise-filling using a fixed stochastic process, or one estimated using expectation-maximization.  ...  The effect of this estimation scheme was analyzed by treating it as a preprocessing step to DCM and observing the resulting effects on model evidence.  ...  A 0-1 loss function loss function may not be a good choice in a medical scenario because it should be expected for the cost of an incorrect decision to be different from a correct one, i.e., an incorrect  ... 
doi:10.3389/fnins.2014.00191 pmid:25071435 pmcid:PMC4082189 fatcat:gktuqb4el5dydmbm3scjqu3lzq

Ridge estimation of inverse covariance matrices from high-dimensional data

Wessel N. van Wieringen, Carel F.W. Peeters
2016 Computational Statistics & Data Analysis  
Subsequently, starting from a common ridge penalty, analytic expressions are derived for two alternative ridge estimators of the precision matrix.  ...  The comparisons may give reason to prefer the proposed alternative estimators.  ...  posterior probability that the edge between Y j and Y j is null given [P Ia (λ a )] jj .  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.csda.2016.05.012 fatcat:7bwuolkk2bfmpo4nhc2njm3zu4

An Explorative Study on Estimating Local Accuracies in Land-Cover Information Using Logistic Regression and Class-Heterogeneity-Stratified Data

Jingxiong Zhang, Wenjing Yang, Wangle Zhang, Yu Wang, Di Liu, Yingchang Xiu
2018 Remote Sensing  
Local or per-pixel accuracy is usually estimated through empirical modelling, such as logistic regression, which often proceeds in a class-aggregated or a class-stratified way, with the latter being generally  ...  A detailed review of existing methods for analyses, estimation, and use of local accuracy was provided, helping to put the proposed research in a broader context.  ...  A useful method for local accuracy estimation in the spectral domain is the so-called calibration method that seeks to transform various classification certainty measures, such as maximum posterior probabilities  ... 
doi:10.3390/rs10101581 fatcat:nntqmwrxanabjogrxtehp4z7wi

Combining Methods to Estimate Ecosystem Integrity and Ecosystem Service Potentials and Flows for Crop Production in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Jakub Zelený, Sabine Bicking, Kinh Bac Dang, Felix Müller
2020 Landscape Online  
The respective service flow is estimated from official regional statistics, and is represented by the total harvested biomass for food, fodder and energy.  ...  This study has been developed in the ecosystem service framework and focuses on the evaluation of ecological integrity as a basefor the capacity of Schleswig-Holstein to provide ecosystem services.  ...  Acknowledgements The BACOSA project has received funding from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (03F0737B).  ... 
doi:10.3097/lo.202079 fatcat:ycmoq5aqsra47exhfnoqkh4wza

Sparse Methods for Direction-of-Arrival Estimation [article]

Zai Yang, Jian Li, Petre Stoica, Lihua Xie
2017 arXiv   pre-print
The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of these sparse methods for DOA estimation, with a particular highlight on the recently developed gridless sparse methods, e.g., those based on covariance  ...  DOA estimation is a major problem in array signal processing and has wide applications in radar, sonar, wireless communications, etc.  ...  On-Grid Sparse Methods In this section we introduce the first class of sparse methods for DOA estimation, termed as on-grid sparse methods.  ... 
arXiv:1609.09596v2 fatcat:m7vtzr22gnb6joxll2laefxo5i

Characterization of a sex-determining region and its genomic context via statistical estimates of haplotype frequencies in daughters and sons sequenced in pools [article]

Richard Cordaux, Mohamed Amine Chebbi, Isabelle Giraud, David R.J. Pleydell, Jean Peccoud
2020 biorxiv/medrxiv   pre-print
Overall, our results provide strong evidence for an extremely low divergence of sex chromosomes in A. vulgare.  ...  We developed a Bayesian method that uses the SNP genotypes of individually sequenced parents and poolseq data from F1 siblings to estimate the genetic distance between a given genomic region (contig) and  ...  Theoretical models and field surveys on A. vulgare indicate that 617 invasion of a ZW population by feminizing Wolbachia leads to the loss of W chromosomes, as 618 feminized ZZ individuals take the role  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.08.06.240416 fatcat:ij7sdvixorhgtex3p2ko4lz5uq
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