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docid=-225778988 REFERENCES CITED Ferguson, R. Brian, and Neil Whitehead, eds 1992 War in the Tribal Zone: Expanding States and Indigenous Warfare. Santa Fe, NM: School of American Research Press. ... Brian Ferguson Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ 07102-1801 NOTES 1. Interviews with the nurse, Sago Williams, can be seen at http www. youtube.com/watch? ...doi:10.1111/j.1548-1433.2012.01551.x fatcat:geoggpbqljgx3p7nxo2air6aey
Neil Ferguson We live in an ever more connected, mobile and interdependent world, where small perturbations can have unpredictable and sometimes far-reaching effects. ... Ferguson is at the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. ...doi:10.1038/446733a pmid:17429381 fatcat:3y7ppwa2p5htvmkvqhush3jv3u
R 0 characterizes the intrinsic transmissibility of infections and depends on both disease biology (determining Mathematical prediction in infection Neil M Ferguson Neil M Ferguson is Professor of ...doi:10.1383/medc.126.96.36.199124 pmid:32288561 pmcid:PMC7129438 fatcat:rxcaskbciravlajwob33kzotpq
Mathematical prediction in infection Neil M Ferguson Abstract It is now increasingly common for infectious disease epidemics to be analysed with mathematical models. ... A Figure 1 1 Figure 1 Neil M Ferguson DPhil is Professor of Mathematical Biology and Director of the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London, UK. ...doi:10.1016/j.mpmed.2009.07.004 pmid:32288567 pmcid:PMC7108383 fatcat:snd3fzpbyjgh3kojny2qmj5zxq
Neil Ferguson is a novelist and short-fiction writer. Visit his website at neilferguson@com B Neil Ferguson. Reprinted with permission. ... At the Clinic Neil Ferguson In the waiting area between Phlebotomy and Doctor Abromovitch's Clinic, among strangers who have something in common, observe the electronic queue-machine click 90, 91, 92 one ...doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.114.146936 fatcat:xadlr7oncrgalfszb5vdy4ag4u
, 2010 (Ferguson, , 2011 (Ferguson, , 2014;; to reexamine the findings in light of recent advances in the field. ... Also dealing with the psychological well-being of former extremists or combatants is an important but often overlooked factor (Ferguson, 2014; Ferguson, Burgess and Hollywood, 2010; Stern, 2010) especially ...doaj:2ff7e59805094652b2bf652e8ea5a40c fatcat:qow4ebrbpnafxl3527lw23e3h4
The rising threat of antibiotic resistance in Europe and beyond is of increasing concern and is prompting renewed effort to better understand and mitigate their impact. Escherichia Coli blood stream infections are a more major concern in Europe given their incidence and severe associated outcomes. Additionally the level of 3rd generation cephalosporins and carbapenems resistance among those bacteraemias has significantly increased, limiting available treatment options. We estimated the currentdoi:10.1101/052944 fatcat:aglbmrvkxbhuzebzhlv5luq2im
more »... urden associated with E. coli blood stream infections in Europe at 17,000 (95%CI [8,000; 30,000]) excess deaths and 960,000 (95%CI [600,000; 1,450,000]) extra hospital bed days. From those, the contribution due to 3rd generation cephalosporins and carbapenems resistant strains reached 6,000 (95%CI [2,000; 12,000]) excess deaths, and 200,000 (95%CI [76,000; 420,000]) extra hospital bed stay. In the worst case scenario, we estimated the burden of E. coli blood stream infection in 2026 could increase over 4-fold, mostly resulting from an increase in the level of resistance rather than an increase in the incidence of blood stream infections. Finally, we estimated that the impact of combined novel diagnostics and treatments could substantially reduce the excess mortality by 18.5% to 55.5%, and length of stay by 13.2% to 75.6%.
Objective: WHO recommends countries consider dengue vaccination in geographic settings only where epidemiological data indicate a high burden of disease. In defining target populations, WHO recommend that prior infection with any dengue serotype should be >70% seroprevalence. Here we address considerations for serosurvey design in the context of the newly licensed CYD-TDV vaccine. Methods: To explore how the design of seroprevalence surveys (age range, survey size) would affect estimates of thedoi:10.1101/171140 fatcat:5sxgjaen2zc35fp5wm2fusk2ce
more »... force of infection, for every combination of age range, total survey size, transmission setting, and test sensitivity/specificity, 100 age-specific seroprevalence surveys were simulated using a beta-binomial distribution and a simple catalytic model. The transmission intensity was then re-estimated using a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm. Findings: Sampling from a wide age range led to more accurate estimates than having a larger sample size. This finding was consistent across all transmission settings. The optimal age range to sample from differed by transmission intensity, with younger and older ages being important in high and low transmission settings respectively. The optimum test sensitivity and specificity given an imperfect test also differed by transmission setting with high sensitivity being important in high transmission settings and high specificity important in low transmission settings. Conclusions: When assessing the suitability for vaccination by seroprevalence surveys, countries should ensure that an appropriate age range is sampled, taking into account epidemiological evidence about the local burden of dengue.
The current influenza A antigenic evolution paradigm suggesting that antigenic evolution is highly constrained, with successful new viruses being near optimal at maximizing their antigenic distance from past strains. This begs the question of whether influenza antigenic evolution is fundamentally predictable, or if it takes place on a much higher dimensional antigenic space with multiple possible trajectories. We tackle this issue by building a genotype to phenotype map validated on historicaldoi:10.1101/770446 fatcat:kcrlruid6bet3ocv5c7nhnvoui
more »... emagglutination inhibition assay data by using machine learning methods. This map uses amino acid physiochemical properties for inference, learning the expected antigenic distance given the differences in polarity and hydrophobicity observed across any two viral sequences, and is thus applicable to newly sampled viruses with previously unseen amino acids. This allows us to accurately blindly predict the antigenic relevance of soon to be vaccine viral strains. We couple the genotype to phenotype map with a molecular evolutionary simulation algorithm to explore the limits of influenza antigenic evolution and infer to what extent it is in fact predictable. Although we do uncover some canalization of antigenic trajectories, we find that multiple antigenic lineages are equally viable at any one point in time even though typically only one of those trajectories is actually realized.
Components of ground and flight vehicles are subjected to random vibration excitations. A common approach to qualify such components is to expose them to a random Gaussian excitation, defined by the power spectral density (PSD) of the vibration under consideration. In real life, however, it is common to experience non-Gaussian acceleration inputs such as road irregularities in the automotive world or turbulent pressure fluctuations for the aerospace sector. Traditional Gaussian random testdoi:10.1016/j.proeng.2015.12.652 fatcat:uompompx7vhhlhhjoftv5hvusa
more »... ls do not accurately represent the bursts and peaks seen in service use. The consequence of not using the right type of test signal during vibration testing of the product leads to higher field failure rates and added warranty costs. Modern controllers can generate non-Gaussian excitation signals with a given PSD and kurtosis. A simulation with kurtosis control makes the vibration test more realistic and therefore closer to real-world excitations. This paper addresses the question of linking fatigue damage with the prescribed input kurtosis. Direct applications of these results include improved fatigue life estimations and a method to accelerate shaker tests by generating high kurtosis, non-Gaussian drive signals. The algorithm is validated using numerical simulations and a case study illustrates the application of the method.
Shock and Vibration
A novel shock isolation strategy for base excited system is presented by introducing a two-degree-of-freedom model with passive friction, where the friction is applied to an attached mass instead of directly to the primary isolated mass. The model is evaluated against the benchmark case of single-degree-of-freedom system with friction applied directly to the primary isolated mass. The performances of the models are compared in terms of the maximum displacement response and the accelerationdoi:10.1155/2017/7313809 fatcat:pfla5amuebalthmsz4xhp4p62e
more »... g the application of the shock input for the case when the shock input duration is approximately equal to the natural period of the system (amplification region). From the results, the two-degree-of-freedom model can produce both maximum displacement reduction and smoother acceleration at the point of motion transition. An experimental rig was built to validate the theoretical results against the experimental results; it is found that the experimental results closely match the theoretical predictions.
This presentation concentrates on calculating the high cycle fatigue life from sine-on-random excitations. A spectral domain approach offers advantages over the time domain approach when computation times are prohibitive. The proposed approach is to derive the statistical rainflow cycle histogram from a sine-on-random spectrum of stress data and then to use the appropriate material fatigue curve to obtain the estimated life. A case study illustrates the application of the method on a componentdoi:10.1016/j.proeng.2015.02.033 fatcat:ofp3fgkvwjcylmj7vfpgzhygpa
more »... ttached to a helicopter. Comparisons with traditional time-domain approaches are presented and show excellent agreement.
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