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Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Joost Vervoort, Amanda Palazzo, Shahnila Islam, Steven Lord, Ariella Helfgott, Petr Havlík, Rathana Peou, Marieke Sassen, Marieke Veeger, Arnout van Soesbergen, Andrew P. Arnell (+3 others)
2016 Environmental Modelling & Software  
four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia.  ...  This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify  ...  program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)'s program on Economic and Policy Innovations for Climate-Smart Agriculture (EPIC), the United Nations  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.008 fatcat:ugmxmugtsfaatfehsqdpa5txfq

Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change

Joost M. Vervoort, Philip K. Thornton, Patti Kristjanson, Wiebke Förch, Polly J. Ericksen, Kasper Kok, John S.I. Ingram, Mario Herrero, Amanda Palazzo, Ariella E.S. Helfgott, Angela Wilkinson, Petr Havlík (+2 others)
2014 Global Environmental Change  
Acknowledgements We would like to thank the CGIAR Research Programme Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security for enabling the research informing this paper.  ...  We would also like to thank Monika Zurek for her helpful suggestions. Finally, we would like to thank three anonymous reviewers for their help in improving the manuscript.  ...  that each represent two plausible future states for a factor.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.001 fatcat:6jqu3bw5e5h2lllijewjv65pji

Multi-level Scenarios for Exploring Alternative Futures for Upper Tributary Watersheds in Mainland Southeast Asia

Louis Lebel
2006 Mountain Research and Development  
Peer-reviewed: March 2006 Accepted: May 2006 Multi-level Scenarios for Exploring Alternative Futures for Upper Tributary Watersheds in Mainland Southeast Asia Louis Lebel 263 Mountain Research and  ...  The present article introduces an approach to building and using multi-level scenarios and applies it to upper tributary watersheds in mainland Southeast Asia.  ... 
doi:10.1659/0276-4741(2006)26[263:msfeaf]2.0.co;2 fatcat:46mzqhxtjjfblknqvgaysitybu

Scenario techniques for energy and environmental research: An overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty

Céline Guivarch, Robert Lempert, Evelina Trutnevyte
2017 Environmental Modelling & Software  
The emphasis on diversity is justified by the purpose of the scenarios envisaged in the case study: the scenarios are intended to be applied to diverse policy processes in Southeast Asia to develop robust  ...  Scenario thinking forms the core of future analysis in energy, climate and other environmental research and decision making.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.017 fatcat:e5q2ecrsrzdz3e72uy3mpzv7ni

Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam

Ahmad Dermawan, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Annette Huber-Lee, Amanda Fencl
2013 Technological forecasting & social change  
Smallholder tree plantations are seen as promising routes to alleviating poverty and increasing forest area among the countries in Southeast Asia.  ...  The authors therefore felt than an explicitly multi-scale approach was called for.  ...  The authors would like to thank the Unites States Agency for International Development (USAID) for partially funding the research project.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.021 fatcat:yvbxm5emdbd4doragdwog533ge

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

Yusuke Satoh, Taher Kahil, Edward Byers, Peter Burek, Günther Fischer, Sylvia Tramberend, Peter Greve, Martina Flörke, Stephanie Eisner, Naota Hanasaki, Piotr Magnuszewski, Luzma Fabiola Nava (+3 others)
2017 Earth's Future  
Key points: • A first assessment of Asian water futures using multi-model and multi-scenario approach • 1.6-2 billion people are projected to experience severe water stress conditions in Asia by 2050 •  ...  The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models.  ...  The multi-model ensemble mean have been used to estimate TWD and TWR.  ... 
doi:10.1002/2016ef000503 fatcat:xtl7k6kvlveo3hkrf7nbk6kaha

Exploring Futures of the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Scenarios and Pathways [chapter]

Joyashree Roy, Eddy Moors, M. S. R. Murthy, S. V. R. K. Prabhakar, Bahadar Nawab Khattak, Peili Shi, Christian Huggel, Vishwas Chitale
2019 The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment  
Currently, there are no HKH specific quantitative models for future scenarios (see Box 4.2 and Sect. 4.1.1 for Asia-specific scenarios reflected in global reports that have some relevance for the HKH).  ...  No regional quantitative model simulations for future social economic scenarios of the HKH region have been developed previously.  ...  reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_4 fatcat:seze2ny2cva6hhdrhsjrhqrpqy

Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR

Niels Debonne, Jasper van Vliet, Andreas Heinimann, Peter Verburg
2018 Regional Environmental Change  
The model is applied to simulate land change in Laos until 2030, using three contrasting scenarios: (1) a target to quadruple the area of LSLA, (2) a moratorium for new LSLA, and (3) no target for LSLA  ...  Scenarios yield drastically different land change trajectories despite having similar demands for agricultural commodities.  ...  reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1316-8 pmid:30996671 pmcid:PMC6434982 fatcat:mv6phduapvbmxgsuocuxctq6d4

Brazilian Coffee Production and the Future Microbiome and Mycotoxin Profile Considering the Climate Change Scenario

Deiziane Gomes dos Santos, Caroline Corrêa de Souza Coelho, Anna Beatriz Robottom Ferreira, Otniel Freitas-Silva
2021 Microorganisms  
Within the climate change scenario, aflatoxins, which are more toxic than OTA, may become dominant, promoting greater food insecurity surrounding coffee production.  ...  Brazil holds a series of favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production including the hours and intensity of sunlight, the availability of agricultural land and water resources, as well as diverse  ...  Modeling and validation of climate suitability.  ... 
doi:10.3390/microorganisms9040858 pmid:33923588 fatcat:5sytlxfwbjfifhvolqdorho2cy

Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios

Nigel W. Arnell
2004 Global Environmental Change  
projections made using six climate models driven by SRES emissions scenarios.  ...  This paper describes an assessment of the relative effect of climate change and population growth on future global and regional water resources stresses, using SRES socio-economic scenarios and climate  ...  Acknowledgements This research has been funded by the UK Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DE-FRA), contract EPG/1/1/70.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006 fatcat:sizlb5hucrg7voiy44ujifitzy

Climate Change Scenarios – Implications for Strategic Asset Allocation

Danyelle Jann Guyatt
2011 Social Science Research Network  
Most models predict precipitation increases in the summer monsoon season in South and Southeast Asia, as well as in East Africa.  ...  /East Asia, Russia and India/South Asia to the TIP™ factor risks for each scenario Climate Change Scenarios -Implications for Strategic Asset Allocation Table 18 18 Sensitivities of China/East Asia  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1911824 fatcat:bvkifeamejgkxkcz7uup2aaahe

Land Use-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Service Values and Simulation of Future Scenarios: A Case Study of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Yongkang Zhou, Xiaoyao Zhang, Hu Yu, Qingqing Liu, Linlin Xu
2021 Sustainability  
use and ESVs under two scenarios: natural development scenarios and ecological protection scenarios.  ...  The stability of the major land use types is the key factor responsible for the overall increasing ESV trend. Different regions on the QTP had substantially varied ESVs.  ...  Acknowledgments: The authors thank all researchers involved in data acquisition, image registration, and urban lands delineation and verification.  ... 
doi:10.3390/su13074079 fatcat:y53tdf4pwjhhbojh4tbvcqyzve

Integrating Insights from Social-Ecological Interactions into Sustainable Land Use Change Scenarios for Small Islands in the Western Indian Ocean

Rebecca Jo Stormes Newman, Claudia Capitani, Colin Courtney-Mustaphi, Jessica Paula Rose Thorn, Rebecca Kariuki, Charis Enns, Robert Marchant
2020 Sustainability  
and developing populations and exposure to sea level and climate change.  ...  This framework aims to facilitate the incorporation of local community perspectives into water, energy and food nexus thinking about sustainable land use to support local livelihoods.  ...  -M. and R.K. were supported by the "Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC)" project through the Sustainability and Resilience-Tackling Climate and Environmental Changes Programme funded by  ... 
doi:10.3390/su12041340 fatcat:3nmtjsetifcvvjoi6s2xlgoy6e

Scenarios for Global Aquaculture and Its Role in Human Nutrition

Jessica A. Gephart, Christopher D. Golden, Frank Asche, Ben Belton, Cecile Brugere, Halley E. Froehlich, Jillian P. Fry, Benjamin S. Halpern, Christina C. Hicks, Robert C. Jones, Dane H. Klinger, David C. Little (+4 others)
2020 Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture  
This article explores plausible aquaculture futures and their role in nutrition security using a qualitative scenario approach.  ...  Global demand for freshwater and marine foods (i.e., seafood) is rising and an increasing proportion is farmed.  ...  A current example analogous to the former situation is found in South and Southeast Asia, where millions of rural households maintain small ponds in homesteads and rice fields.  ... 
doi:10.1080/23308249.2020.1782342 fatcat:cvsa6pr42jfddaslntneypeb6a

Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways

Guillaume Rohat, Johannes Flacke, Hy Dao, Martin van Maarseveen
2018 Climatic Change  
scenarios-within assessments of future climate risks.  ...  The extended SSPs can be readily employed to explore future populations' vulnerability to climate hazards under varying levels of socioeconomic development. Climatic Change  ...  This work was partly supported by the State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation (SERI, Switzerland) within the framework of its program BCotutelles de these^.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2318-8 fatcat:wkpmg3rtc5civbcu2uk43nfmiu
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