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Modeling for Mere Mortals [chapter]

Jeff Kramer, Jeff Magee
1999 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
mere mortals.  ...  In this paper we outline one such effort which is specifically intended to facilitate modelling as part of the software process, and to try to make model specification and model checking accessible to  ...  We gratefully acknowledge the EPSRC (BEADS GR/M 24493) and the EU (C3DS ESPRIT project 24962) for their financial support.  ... 
doi:10.1007/3-540-49059-0_1 fatcat:l2fpv4q5jzcodj4cp5t65oexmi

Limitations of Ranking Lists Based on Cardiac Surgery Mortality Rates

S. Siregar, R. H. H. Groenwold, E. K. Jansen, M. L. Bots, Y. van der Graaf, L. A. van Herwerden
2012 Circulation. Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes  
Ranks were assessed using crude and adjusted mortality rates, using a random effects logistic regression model. Risk adjustment was performed using the logistic EuroSCORE.  ...  Additional analyses were performed for patients with isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The ranking lists, based on mortality rates in 3 consecutive years, showed considerable reshuffling.  ...  Ranks were likely to fluctuate merely due to chance and were thus instable. The results held true for both crude and risk-adjusted mortality rates.  ... 
doi:10.1161/circoutcomes.111.964460 pmid:22592754 fatcat:nbyu2b44yvacrfddzvd7hhvyze

What is the added value of the waist-to-hip ratio on top of the BIOSTAT risk prediction model in patients with heart failure? Reply

Koen W. Streng, Chim C. Lang, Adriaan A. Voors
2018 European Journal of Heart Failure  
What is the added value of the waist-to-hip ratio on top of the BIOSTAT risk prediction model in patients with heart failure? Reply Streng, Koen W.; Lang, Chim C.; Voors, Adriaan A.  ...  manuscript, we merely aimed to investigate the independent association of WHR with all-cause mortality, and therefore corrected for the previously published risk prediction model.  ...  The BIOSTAT-CHF prediction model contains the strongest predictors for mortality, and were also confounders in our manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1002/ejhf.1324 pmid:30295977 pmcid:PMC6607481 fatcat:sldvlxqp7vdefdxq4opimiqleu

Preoperative statin therapy reduces postoperative all-cause mortality in cardiac surgery: A meta-analysis of controlled studies

Hisato Takagi, Norikazu Kawai, Takuya Umemoto
2009 Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery  
We also abstracted adjusted ORs and 95% CIs for mortality if reported. Study-specific estimates were combined using inverse variance-weighted averages of logarithmic ORs in a randomeffects model.  ...  The analysis, however, included 10 observational studies but merely 3 small randomized controlled trials (sample size: 40, 77, and 200). [3] [4] [5] In an attempt to correct for and minimize selection  ...  *Propensity score matching. yMultivariate analysis. zPooled estimate using a random-effects model. OR (95% CI) for mortality  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jtcvs.2008.02.045 pmid:19154887 fatcat:6zrwuhhjtzhhtdyx6di5zh5rtq

A meta-analysis of controlled studies of preoperative statin therapy for prevention of postoperative mortality in cardiac surgery

Hisato Takagi, Takuya Umemoto
2009 Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery  
We excluded observational controlled trials that reported merely crude mortality or a crude OR for death.  ...  To minimize confounding effects, we carefully selected merely high-quality observational studies that reported the adjusted OR for postoperative death and included them in our meta-analysis.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jtcvs.2009.05.027 pmid:19698886 fatcat:othzeo5dozh3lblyubmbwbsfhi

Body mass index and the risk of mortality in type II diabetic patients from Verona

G Zoppini, G Verlato, C Leuzinger, C Zamboni, E Brun, E Bonora, M Muggeo
2003 International Journal of Obesity  
For this purpose, survival in the different quartiles of BMI was evaluated by a Cox model, controlling for sex, age, treatment, smoking, duration of diabetes, hypertension, and fasting plasma glucose.  ...  RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined a cohort of 3398 type II diabetic patients, alive on December 1986 and followed up for 10 years, to assess mortality and its causes and to investigate the relationship  ...  Menarini, Merck Sharp & Dohme, BMI and mortality in type II diabetes G. Zoppini et al  ... 
doi:10.1038/sj.ijo.802199 pmid:12587011 fatcat:si54q5vf6rhobnj7e5etv4drp4

Brief Report

Aurelio Tobías, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini
2017 Epidemiology  
Conclusions: The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating associations of them with  ...  Methods: We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature-mortality shape estimated  ...  In Teruel the temperature-mortality curve is monotonic increasing, so the1 st -99 th centile constraint merely increases the minimum mortality temperature estimate from the minimum to the 1 st centile.  ... 
doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000000567 pmid:27748681 pmcid:PMC5380105 fatcat:uzrcq5ft2jg67dbiyxdcown3ca

Generalized Linear Models in Actuarial Work

S. Haberman, A. E. Renshaw
1990 Journal of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society  
The purpose of the paper is to show that generalized linear models have a wide area of application in actuarial work and are not confined merely to models for motor insurance premiums.  ...  The models allow the effects of individual factors and their interactions on excess mortality may be assessed.  ...  The purpose of the paper is to show that generalized linear models have a wide area of application in actuarial work and are not confined merely to models for motor insurance premiums.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s2049929900010485 fatcat:ru5e7zqtffeavicqx54rd4so5m

Host dynamics determine responses to disease: additive vs. compensatory mortality in a grasshopper–pathogen system

Erica J. Kistner, Gary E. Belovsky
2014 Ecology  
Simply put, disease mortality merely substituted for starvation mortality and did not affect muskrat population dynamics.  ...  In some instances, disease mortality merely compensates for other mortality sources and plays no role in host population regulation (Holmes 1982) .  ...  Appendix C Summary of model selection statistics evaluating variation in grasshopper survival across developmental stage, density level, and disease exposure variables (Ecological Archives E095-225-A3)  ... 
doi:10.1890/13-0969.1 fatcat:ugargtygqfaqthzi2nd4i4w6h4

The Effect of Primary Care Physician Supply and Income Inequality on Mortality Among Blacks and Whites in US Metropolitan Areas

Leiyu Shi, Barbara Starfield
2001 American Journal of Public Health  
Race/ethnicity-specific mortality indicators were produced and provided on our request by the Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, because no  ...  In particular, we thank Harry Rosenberg and Donna Hoyert for their efforts.  ...  That Black race remained an overriding determinant of disparities in mortality, even after inclusion of socioeconomic covariates, suggests that race/ ethnicity is not merely a proxy for socioeconomic variables  ... 
doi:10.2105/ajph.91.8.1246 pmid:11499112 fatcat:f4ehnxfi4vg7tkdll67hb5cihm

Evidence supports the superiority of closed ICUs for patients and families: we are not sure

B. Guidet, N. Kentish-Barnes, H. Wunsch
2016 Intensive Care Medicine  
Focusing on mortality for ICU patients is overly simplistic [3, 4]. Mortality rates can be influenced by numerous external factors and questions remain as to the best moment to assess mortality?  ...  The need for coherent decisionmaking is vital for caregivers: being able to express  ...  Focusing on mortality for ICU patients is overly simplistic [3, 4] . Mortality rates can be influenced by numerous external factors and questions remain as to the best moment to assess mortality?  ... 
doi:10.1007/s00134-016-4510-5 pmid:27586994 fatcat:ervyvha4ijeypbmx2aeuvzh3lq

Comments to a polar bear population model

Nils Are Øritsland
1985 Polar Research  
Population projections using the Leslie model with hunting mortalities added are instructive first approximations in evaluations of field data, however, and are recommended as exercises also for polar  ...  ., 117-118) note correctly that a Leslie matrix model treats cubs and females as independent units which is not the case for polar bears.  ...  Leslie's matrix model is recommended as a useful practical population model for long lived species with a distinct seasonal breeding pattern.  ... 
doi:10.3402/polar.v3i1.6943 fatcat:u7txmjypszdjtg6sa3m4anwdxy

Recessions lower (some) mortality rates:

Eric Neumayer
2004 Social Science and Medicine  
a static and a dynamic econometric model.  ...  The same is true for mortality from cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and influenza, motor vehicle accidents and suicides, but not necessarily for other specific mortality causes.  ...  I would like to thank Peter Krause from the German Institute for Economic Research as well as many individuals  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0277-9536(03)00276-4 pmid:14723900 fatcat:tdxbpk3oyreltc62djldwhante

Page 20 of American Anthropologist Vol. 85, Issue 1 [page]

1983 American Anthropologist  
Table IV takes the Maghreb-type model life table constructed by Acsadi and Nemeskeri (1970) and first eliminates infant mortality and in addition then eliminates early childhood mortality.  ...  One might question whether a reduction in infant mortality could account for the sharp increase in growth rate inferred for the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, how much of a reduction would be necessary  ... 

Page 266 of Genetics Vol. 169, Issue 1 [page]

2005 Genetics  
When the logistic model was used, the entire mortality trajectory was analyzed.  ...  Although other mathematical models may be more accurate, given the limitations in sample size, the Gompertz model is the most appropriate choice for this analysis since it is accurate while being simple  ... 
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