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Modelling epistemic uncertainty in ir evaluation

Murat Yakici, Mark Baillie, Ian Ruthven, Fabio Crestani
2007 Proceedings of the 30th annual international ACM SIGIR conference on Research and development in information retrieval - SIGIR '07  
In this study, we present a first attempt at modelling both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty associated with IR evaluation.  ...  MODELLING UNCERTAINTY IR evaluation can be thought of as a probabilistic reasoning and decision process.  ... 
doi:10.1145/1277741.1277900 dblp:conf/sigir/YakiciBRC07 fatcat:ac2ftpduczha7pzy2fldazc3ee

EMPIRICAL COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR THE HIERARCHICAL PROPAGATION OF HYBRID UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ASSESSMENT, IN PRESENCE OF DEPENDENCES

NICOLA PEDRONI, ENRICO ZIO
2012 International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems  
Whereas aleatory uncertainty is always described by probability distributions, epistemic uncertainty may be represented in different ways (e.g., probabilistic or possibilistic), depending on the information  ...  of epistemic uncertainty is adopted) and ii) studying the effect of the probabilistic/possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty (when the state of dependence between the epistemic parameters  ...  DS-IRS: Pl(Z 1 ∈ (-∞, Model function Z 2 = Y 1 *Y 2 /Y 3 -Non-probabilistic epistemic uncertainty MC-based DS-IRS: Bel(Z 2 ∈ (-∞, z 2 ]) MC-based DS-IRS: Pl(Z 2 ∈ (-∞, z 2 ]) Hybrid MC-FIA: Bel(Z 2 ∈  ... 
doi:10.1142/s0218488512500250 fatcat:zz6avt3vpzf6lifmml2ujahvsq

Hierarchical propagation of probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainty in the parameters of a risk model

N. Pedroni, E. Zio, E. Ferrario, A. Pasanisi, M. Couplet
2013 Computers & structures  
We consider a model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike, and use probability distributions to represent aleatory uncertainty and possibility distributions to describe the epistemic uncertainty  ...  A hybrid method is introduced to hierarchically propagate the two types of uncertainty, and the results are compared with those of a Monte Carlo-based Dempster-Shafer approach employing independent random  ...  Then, the different design options must be evaluated within a flooding risk analysis framework accounting for uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.compstruc.2013.02.003 fatcat:7gad4ziizngqlinop55wu56oxq

Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis: A Fuzzy Set Approach

Palash Dutta, Tazid Ali
2012 International Journal of Computer Applications  
Here, we consider that model parameters are affected by epistemic uncertainty. To represent epistemic uncertainty in general triangular fuzzy number or trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used.  ...  Risk assessment is generally performed using models and model is a function of some parameters which are usually affected by uncertainty.  ...  Aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty are two distinct facets of uncertainty in risk assessment.  ... 
doi:10.5120/6199-8734 fatcat:o3dxalhsajf7xethqtvoafc4qu

Bayesian Autoencoders for Drift Detection in Industrial Environments

Bang Xiang Yong, Yasmin Fathy, Alexandra Brintrup
2020 2020 IEEE International Workshop on Metrology for Industry 4.0 & IoT  
Autoencoders are unsupervised models which have been used for detecting anomalies in multi-sensor environments.  ...  To this end, we first propose the development of Bayesian Autoencoders to quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.  ...  presented was supported by European Metrology Programme for Innovation and Research (EMPIR) under the project Metrology for the Factory of the Future (MET4FOF), project number 17IND12 as well as the PITCH-IN  ... 
doi:10.1109/metroind4.0iot48571.2020.9138306 dblp:conf/metroi/YongFB20 fatcat:biecv2qywbfv5pewqelsltwosi

Risk-Based Multilevel Methodology to Stress Test Critical Infrastructure Systems

Simona Esposito, Božidar Stojadinović, Anže Babič, Matjaž Dolšek, Sarfraz Iqbal, Jacopo Selva, Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Domenico Giardini
2020 Journal of Infrastructure Systems  
The methods, results, opinions, findings, and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission.  ...  Acknowledgments The work presented in this paper was conducted within the project "STREST: Harmonized approach to stress tests for civil infrastructures against natural hazards" funded by the European  ...  models to quantify the epistemic uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.1061/(asce)is.1943-555x.0000520 fatcat:wmt76k3jofapvfruwvj5atbovu

Protecting built property against fire disasters: Multi ‐attribute decision making with respect to fire risk

Egidijus Rytas Vaidogas, Jurgita Šakėnaitė
2010 International Journal of Strategic Property Management  
the presence of epistemic uncertainties in the elements of fire risk estimate.  ...  Epistemic probability distributions assigned to elements of fire risk are specified and propagated though models of the multi-attribute selection by means of Monte carlo simulation. an example presented  ...  uncertainty in the likelihoods ir l is modelled by the random variables ir L expressed through the epistemic random variables defined in Table 1 : 2 . the values of µ ir and σ ir were calculated by  ... 
doi:10.3846/ijspm.2010.29 fatcat:u53hn56ijjdcjdvaktvpnl7b7q

A Quantitative Comparison of Epistemic Uncertainty Maps Applied to Multi-Class Segmentation [article]

Robin Camarasa
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Uncertainty assessment has gained rapid interest in medical image analysis. A popular technique to compute epistemic uncertainty is the Monte-Carlo (MC) dropout technique.  ...  In the case of multi-class segmentation, the number of methods is even larger as epistemic uncertainty can be computed voxelwise per class or voxelwise per image.  ...  Jungo et al. (2018) studied the relationship between the "ground truth" aleatoric uncertainties and the epistemic uncertainties of a MC dropout model evaluating the weighted mean entropy.  ... 
arXiv:2109.10702v1 fatcat:jz7steet5zgphems2eipl7hm2m

JOINT ESTIMATION OF DEPTH AND ITS UNCERTAINTY FROM STEREO IMAGES USING BAYESIAN DEEP LEARNING

M. Mehltretter
2022 ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences  
Moreover, the evaluation reveals the importance of considering both, aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, in order to achieve an accurate estimation of the overall uncertainty related to a depth estimate  ...  On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty, which accounts for simplifications or incorrect assumptions with respect to the formulated model hypothesis, is often neglected.  ...  In contrast, epistemic uncertainty accounts for incorrect or inaccurate model hypotheses.  ... 
doi:10.5194/isprs-annals-v-2-2022-69-2022 fatcat:v4glmtyqe5at3ne7yjenbxov6a

Calibrated Diffusion Tensor Estimation [article]

Davood Karimi, Simon K. Warfield, Ali Gholipour
2022 arXiv   pre-print
We also propose a new method for evaluating the quality of predicted uncertainties.  ...  Although there has been a growing interest in using deep learning methods in diffusion-weighted MRI, prior works have not addressed the issue of model uncertainty.  ...  Given an input dMRI patch x ∈ IR n,n,n,m , the network predicts the tensor and voxel-wise estimation uncertainty, respectively y ∈ IR n,n,n,6 and u ∈ IR n,n,n , for that patch.  ... 
arXiv:2111.10847v2 fatcat:ymox7uzo5vcnljfvi3db3sybni

Page 3648 of Mathematical Reviews Vol. , Issue 94g [page]

1994 Mathematical Reviews  
The concept of the limit of an epistemic process is also defined. Every empirical model for a specific problem is proved to be the limit of an epistemic process.  ...  Bunder (5-WLG; Wollongong) 94g:03060 03B60 90C70 Lang, Jérome (F-TOUL3-IR; Toulouse) Semantic evaluation in possibilistic logic. Application to min-max discrete optimisation problems.  ... 

Uncertainties in age- and gender-based health risk assessment for recreational bathing: Arsenic in Del Azul stream, Argentina

Fabio Peluso, Ignacio Masson, José González Castelain, Natalia Othax, Sabrina Dubny
2015 Human and Ecological Risk Assessment  
It represents a case study on the carcinogenic risk for bathers and on how the risk varies among age groups and genders, analyzing the uncertainties of the model input variables and the risk quantification  ...  The risk decreased with age and it was higher in males than in females, with larger differences between the two older age groups.  ...  The application of the 2D MC model with one input exposure variable used at a time as an epistemic uncertainty variable showed that the three major contributors to the epistemic uncertainty were the bathing  ... 
doi:10.1080/10807039.2015.1107468 fatcat:sddfgpiaqzfunfctrjivv7hdty

A Fuzzy-Sets Based Approach for Modelling Uncertainties in Quantitative Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants Under Seismic Actions

N. Buratti, B. Ferracuti, M. Savoia, G. Antonioni, V. Cozzani
2012 Chemical Engineering Transactions  
The effects of these uncertainties on the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of local and societal risk indexes, caused by accidental scenarios triggered by seismic events, are evaluated for a case study  ...  This paper describes a fuzzy set based approach for dealing with uncertainties in the assessment of "NaTech" events triggered by earthquakes: and in particular with those related to seismic hazard and  ...  This type of uncertainty is known as epistemic uncertainty within the context of PSHA and is normally evaluated using logic trees.  ... 
doi:10.3303/cet1226018 doaj:7e13c86c005f428d89844364d31f7d08 fatcat:53e3qpgmhzbmja7k7wxbna4dma

Variability and epistemic uncertainty in water ingestion rates and pharmacokinetic parameters, and impact on the association between perfluorooctanoate and preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project population

Raghavendhran Avanasi, Hyeong-Moo Shin, Veronica M. Vieira, Scott M. Bartell
2016 Environmental Research  
In conclusion, our study shows that the change of the rank exposure among the study participants due to variability and epistemic uncertainty in the independent exposure parameters was large enough to  ...  We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate inter-individual variability/ epistemic uncertainty in the exposure assessment and reanalyzed the epidemiological association.  ...  David Savitz and his research group at Brown University for kindly allowing us to use/modify the preeclampsia data set in the C8 Health Project study population for our analysis.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envres.2016.01.011 pmid:26796985 pmcid:PMC4761513 fatcat:5vumgkojkbaxpe4vank6fqngp4

Stochastic and epistemic uncertainty propagation in LCA

Julie Clavreul, Dominique Guyonnet, Davide Tonini, Thomas H. Christensen
2013 The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment  
The objective of this study is to present a methodology that combines probability and possibility theories to represent stochastic and epistemic uncertainties in a consistent manner and apply it to LCA  ...  In a real situation, an excessive distance between these two bounds might motivate the decision-maker to increase the information base regarding certain critical parameters, in order to reduce the uncertainty  ...  Acknowledgements The case study presented in this paper was based on the work by Hamelin et al. (2012) and . We are grateful to Lorie Hamelin for making some background data available.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11367-013-0572-6 fatcat:6rbkuqzh3bh7hd6d4fzvjo6hei
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