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Modeling and predicting behavioral dynamics on the web

Kira Radinsky, Krysta Svore, Susan Dumais, Jaime Teevan, Alex Bocharov, Eric Horvitz
2012 Proceedings of the 21st international conference on World Wide Web - WWW '12  
We also explore other dynamics of Web behaviors, such as the detection of periodicities and surprises.  ...  User behavior on the Web changes over time. For example, the queries that people issue to search engines, and the underlying informational goals behind the queries vary over time.  ...  of our modeling techniques for capturing the dynamics of user behavior on the Web.  ... 
doi:10.1145/2187836.2187918 dblp:conf/www/RadinskySDTBH12 fatcat:tpwrnnvn4nhznbyrxjwa3si6tq

Analysis of topic dynamics in web search

Xuehua Shen, Susan Dumais, Eric Horvitz
2005 Special interest tracks and posters of the 14th international conference on World Wide Web - WWW '05  
We examine the predictive accuracies of probabilistic models of topic transitions for individuals and groups of users.  ...  We explore temporal dynamics by comparing the accuracy of the models for predicting topic transitions at increasingly distant times in the future.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AND NOTES We thank Johnson Apacible, Greg Hullander, Haoyong Zhang, and Robin Wilson for help in data collection.  ... 
doi:10.1145/1062745.1062889 dblp:conf/www/ShenDH05 fatcat:npj4rzqsk5dkhomajarzkziakq

Modeling and predicting temporal patterns of web content changes

Maria Carla Calzarossa, Daniele Tessera
2015 Journal of Network and Computer Applications  
This paper analyzes the temporal patterns of the content changes of three major news websites with the objective of modeling and predicting their dynamics.  ...  Models based on trigonometric polynomials and ARMA components accurately reproduce the dynamics of the empirical change patterns and provide extrapolations into the future to be used for forecasting.  ...  These models are the basis for forecasting, that is, predicting the future dynamics of the websites based on current and historical behavior.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jnca.2015.06.008 fatcat:s4gqxotunbhpjnycjiub6rz3pu

Predicting Active Users' Personality Based on Micro-Blogging Behaviors

Lin Li, Ang Li, Bibo Hao, Zengda Guan, Tingshao Zhu, Chunyu Liu
2014 PLoS ONE  
Their personality traits were measured by the Big Five Inventory, and digital records of micro-blogging behaviors were collected via web crawlers.  ...  The classification accuracy ranged from 84% to 92%. We also built regression models utilizing PaceRegression methods, predicting participants' scores on each dimension of the Big Five Inventory.  ...  Such correlation-based conclusions could not be used directly to predict web users' personality traits, and measures of web use behaviors rely on self-report technique.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0084997 pmid:24465462 pmcid:PMC3898945 fatcat:srz5szltyjfp7gz4kpggq6vwvi

A Vague Improved Markov Model Approach for Web Page Prediction

Priya Bajaj, Supriya Raheja
2014 International Journal of Computer Science & Engineering Survey  
It is an intelligent predictive mining that analyze the user web access history and predict the next page. In this work, vague improved markov model is presented to perform the prediction.  ...  In this paper, an integrated model is suggested to improve the prediction accuracy and effectiveness.  ...  Prediction of the next accessed Web page for prefetching and caching is achieved by modeling the Web log using Dynamic Nested Markov model.  ... 
doi:10.5121/ijcses.2014.5205 fatcat:ar47zpunjfglndyml2w2cz674a

Living analytics methods for the web observatory

Ernesto Diaz-Aviles
2013 Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on World Wide Web - WWW '13 Companion  
data becoming ubiquitous in the social web, in order to discover the most relevant and attractive information to support observation, understanding and analysis of the Web.  ...  We center the discussion on two areas: (i) Recommender Systems for Big Fast Data and (ii) Collective Intelligence, both key components towards an analytics toolbox for our Web Observatory.  ...  The massive amounts of information from people's daily living interactions require new and innovative analytic models to observe, understand and predict the dynamics of the actors and components of the  ... 
doi:10.1145/2487788.2488169 dblp:conf/www/Diaz-Aviles13 fatcat:woxilu7ahnanpasywnsjnus5wy

Temporal web dynamics and its application to information retrieval

Kira Radinsky, Fernando Diaz, Susan Dumais, Milad Shokouhi, Anlei Dong, Yi Chang
2013 Proceedings of the sixth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining - WSDM '13  
Fogarty and D. Weld. Zoetrope: Interacting with the ephemeral web.  ...  Traditional IR: single snap shot  Word/query trends: aggregates over docs  Document change: aggregates over terms  (Word,Document) trends: Zoetrope  System that enables interaction with historical Web  ...  Dumais, Jaime Teevan, Alex Bocharov, Eric Horvitz: Modeling and predicting behavioral dynamics on the web.  ... 
doi:10.1145/2433396.2433500 dblp:conf/wsdm/RadinskyDDSDC13 fatcat:v3r5yqpnwjcezm35ux4v5eiyse

Efficient web usage mining process for sequential patterns

Sang T. T. Nguyen
2009 Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Information Integration and Web-based Applications & Services - iiWAS '09  
It is designed based on the integration of the dynamic clustering-based Markov model with the Pre-Order Linked WAP-Tree Mining (PLWAP) algorithm to enhance mining performance.  ...  This process consists of three main stages: preprocessing web access sequences from the web server log, mining preprocessed web log access sequences by a tree-based algorithm, and predicting web access  ...  Helen Lu (The University of Technology, Sydney, NSW, Australia) for their advices on writing this paper.  ... 
doi:10.1145/1806338.1806425 dblp:conf/iiwas/Nguyen09 fatcat:av6f7uqrcna5vnqnegmqiji3tm

Performance modeling of an Apache Web server with a dynamic pool of service processes

Tien Van Do, Udo R. Krieger, Ram Chakka
2008 Telecommunications Systems  
They clearly indicate that the proposed analytic model can indeed accurately predict the performance of the dynamic pool size behavior of an Apache Web server.  ...  It analyzes its dynamic pool size behavior. For the first time, we propose a queueing model to approximate the performance of the latter.  ...  Here, we focus on the MPM non-threaded Prefork processing module and try to capture the dynamic behavior of the pool size under various workload conditions by an analytic model.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11235-008-9116-y fatcat:zi3rx4qmpzfg7fbgxmncnnwljy

Behavioral dynamics on the web

Kira Radinsky, Krysta M. Svore, Susan T. Dumais, Milad Shokouhi, Jaime Teevan, Alex Bocharov, Eric Horvitz
2013 ACM Transactions on Information Systems  
We explore the modeling and prediction of such temporal patterns in Web search behavior.  ...  Finally, we discuss opportunities for using models of temporal dynamics to enhance other areas of Web search and information retrieval.  ...  TEMPORAL MODELING OF WEB SEARCH BEHAVIOR We now present a modeling technique based on state-space models that we use to capture the dynamics of Web behavior.  ... 
doi:10.1145/2493175.2493181 fatcat:uuchmtxa5zcd5aw2tyrihrq2li

Time Series Analysis of the Dynamics of News Websites

Maria Carla Calzarossa, Daniele Tessera
2012 2012 13th International Conference on Parallel and Distributed Computing, Applications and Technologies  
The resulting models can be used to describe the dynamics of the changes and predict future change rates.  ...  The time series describing the change rate is decomposed into trend, seasonal and irregular components and models of each component are then identified.  ...  Our main contribution is in the framework of predicting Web dynamics and deals with the application of time series analysis techniques to the identification of models able to represent the temporal behavior  ... 
doi:10.1109/pdcat.2012.130 dblp:conf/pdcat/CalzarossaT12 fatcat:wlaajripvbbkjeztjqdjg7qnlu

Chaotic dynamics in food web systems [chapter]

Gregor F. Fussmann
2007 Complex Population Dynamics  
I argue that mathematical models which allow for the specific structural properties of natural food webs are more likely to predict realistic patterns of chaos and stability in field and experimental food  ...  Simple mathematical models predict frequent chaotic dynamics for food webs of relatively low complexity suggesting that the long-term dynamics of natural populations could be essentially unpredictable.  ...  Numerical simulation is a method that probes the dynamical behavior predicted by food web models.  ... 
doi:10.1142/9789812771582_0001 fatcat:xrh75jnc6jcwhcqp4vbgkgiqaq

Dynamic Modeling of Web Purchase Behavior and E-Mailing Impact by Petri Net

Christine Balagué, Janghyuk Lee
2007 Recherche et Applications en Marketing (English Edition)  
In this article, the authors introduce Petri nets to model the dynamics of Web site visits and purchase behaviors in the case of wish list systems.  ...  They describe Web site activities and their transition with probability distributions and model the sequential impact of influential factors through links that better explain Web purchase behavior dynamics  ...  Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank for access to their data and Gilles Laurent for constructive set of comments and suggestions.  ... 
doi:10.1177/205157070702200203 fatcat:zyxjwl46krccxbvneft6zl3sbe

Empirical examination of a collaborative web application

Christopher Stewart, Matthew Leventi, Kai Shen
2008 2008 IEEE International Symposium on Workload Characterization  
Online instructional applications, social networking sites, Wiki-based web sites, and other emerging web applications that rely on end users for the generation of web content are increasingly popular.  ...  resource usage prediction.  ...  Students in the Advanced Operating Systems course at the University of Rochester gave early feedbacks on our characterization of the WeBWorK workload.  ... 
doi:10.1109/iiswc.2008.4636094 dblp:conf/iiswc/StewartLS08 fatcat:qpxl5uv3crec3ddlwekxhxwmty

Persistence and flow reliability in simple food webs

Ferenc Jordán, István Scheuring, István Molnár
2003 Ecological Modelling  
We have presented how various dynamical models predict different behavior of modelled communities characterized by the same structure and complexity.  ...  The question addressed here is how network flow reliability is related to the dynamical behavior and stability of these 'model communities'.  ...  Acknowledgements We thank Professor Gábor Vida and Viktor Mü ller for useful comments on the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0304-3800(02)00296-x fatcat:fiyfc2zn25hs5o4ps7c3yf3jpi
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