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Football scores, the Poisson distribution and 30 years of final year projects in Mathematics, Statistics and Operational Research

Phil Scarf
2017 MSOR Connections  
In a narrative that discusses the author's engagement with this model and other related models, the paper presents a number of these projects, their attractions and their pitfalls, and poses a number of  ...  The development of the Poisson match as a model used in the prediction of the outcome of football matches is described.  ...  The third is that sport gives students the opportunity for the application of modelling to the real world (Porter and Bartholomew, 2016) .  ... 
doi:10.21100/msor.v15i3.491 fatcat:25ulvs6is5fothuja2m6cm2wey

A Modified Meta-Heuristic Approach for Vehicle Routing Problem with Simultaneous Pickup and Delivery

Alfian Faiz, Subiyanto Subiyanto, Ulfah Mediaty Arief
2018 International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research  
Instead of stochastic approach, selection of perturbation scheme used in the algorithm employed an empirical selection based on each perturbation scheme success along the search.  ...  The ASM help algorithm to get more diversification degree and jumping from local optimum condition using most successful perturbation scheme empirically in the search process.  ...  The authors are also grateful to all the member of UNNES Electrical Engineering Students Research Group (UEESRG) whose constructive comments and support have led to improving the quality of this paper.  ... 
doi:10.29099/ijair.v2i2.71 fatcat:3qhfhf6ry5b3lg7zp5i2okphse

A Prediction Tournament Paradox [article]

David Aldous
2019 arXiv   pre-print
In a prediction tournament, contestants "forecast" by asserting a numerical probability for each of (say) 100 future real-world events.  ...  But consider a realistic-size tournament with many contestants, with a range of accuracies. It may seem self-evident that the winner will likely be one of the most accurate forecasters.  ...  In mathematical terms, a prediction tournament consists of a collection of n questions of the form "state a probability for a specified real-world event happening before a specified date".  ... 
arXiv:1903.02131v1 fatcat:vqi3ynqy2rgdhdvio3zcxu5meq

A Prediction Tournament Paradox

David J. Aldous
2019 American Statistician  
In a prediction tournament, contestants "forecast" by asserting a numerical probability for each of (say) 100 future real-world events.  ...  But consider a realistic-size tournament with many contestants, with a range of accuracies. It may seem self-evident that the winner will likely be one of the most accurate forecasters.  ...  Funding The author gratefully acknowledges support by N.S.F. grant DMS-1504802.  ... 
doi:10.1080/00031305.2019.1604430 fatcat:zo2fjl7ahffedixrhpntbxdgvy

More Probability Models for the NCAA Regional Basketball Tournaments

Neil C. Schwertman, Kathryn L. Schenk, Brett C. Holbrook
1996 American Statistician  
[See, for example, the analysis of the college baseball world series by Ladwig and Schwertman (1992) .]  ...  TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS Predicting the probability of each seed winning the regional tournament (and advancing to the final four) requires the consideration of all possible paths and opponents.  ... 
doi:10.2307/2685041 fatcat:awto6id4mvd5vk3yhyxglihxka

More Probability Models for the NCAA Regional Basketball Tournaments

Neil C. Schwertman, Kathryn L. Schenk, Brett C. Holbrook
1996 American Statistician  
[See, for example, the analysis of the college baseball world series by Ladwig and Schwertman (1992) .]  ...  TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS Predicting the probability of each seed winning the regional tournament (and advancing to the final four) requires the consideration of all possible paths and opponents.  ... 
doi:10.1080/00031305.1996.10473539 fatcat:od3xbi3esbgmnnqfviq7egalou

Teaching modeling skills using a massively multiplayer online mathematics game

Roberto Araya, Abelino Jiménez, Manuel Bahamondez, Patricio Calfucura, Pablo Dartnell, Jorge Soto-Andrade
2012 World wide web (Bussum)  
The analysis also shows diffusion within the teams of modeling strategies for simple patterns.  ...  One important challenge in mathematics education is teaching modeling skills. We analyze the logs from a game-based learning system used in a massively multiplayer online tournament.  ...  National tournaments of online mathematics and science games Here we report on the implementation of the National Tournaments of Online Mathematics and Science games in Chile.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11280-012-0173-5 fatcat:kx2dbtumzjee5hymugof3owuqe

The Combination of Discrete-Event Simulation and Genetic Algorithm for Solving the Stochastic Multi-Product Inventory Optimization Problem

Ilya Jackson, Jurijs Tolujevs, Tobias Reggelin
2018 Transport and Telecommunication  
The paper contains a detailed description of the optimization technique and the numerical example of six- product inventory model.  ...  The paper describes an eventual combination of discrete-event simulation and genetic algorithm to define the optimal inventory policy in stochastic multi-product inventory systems.  ...  The authors would like to thank both the consortium of the project and the European Commission.  ... 
doi:10.2478/ttj-2018-0020 fatcat:6qtmukmztff73hfmgcazj7qezu

What Behavioural Economics Teaches Personnel Economics

Uschi Backes-Gellner, Donata Bessey, Kerstin Pull, Simone N. Tuor
2008 Social Science Research Network  
But why use laboratory experiments if rank order tournaments are so common in the real world ?  ...  overcome the specific disadvantages of laboratory experiments and provide some insights into the external validity of laboratory experiments for real world behaviour.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1092826 fatcat:fsvt4mns6rhgtdzy27zkf2ko4y

Optimization of Nonlinear Dose- and Concentration-Response Models Utilizing Evolutionary Computation

Andrew L. Beam, Alison A. Motsinger-Reif
2010 Dose-Response  
both real and simulated data.  ...  ᮀ An essential part of toxicity and chemical screening is assessing the concentrated related effects of a test article.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Stephen Ferguson for helpful discussion on dose response modeling and comments on the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.2203/dose-response.09-030.beam pmid:22013401 pmcid:PMC3186933 fatcat:jubeuemqb5edbmrioze65hyf6q

Combining simulation with genetic algorithm for solving stochastic multi-product inventory optimization problem

I. Jackson, Transport and Telecommunication Institute, Latvia
2019 The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration  
Besides that, the model under consideration is distinguished by uncertain replenishment lags and lost-sales. The paper contains both mathematical description and algorithmic implementation.  ...  The proposed approach contributes to the field of industrial engineering by providing a simple and flexible way to compute nearly-optimal inventory control parameters.  ...  Besides, real-world stochasticity may be modelled throughout the bestfit probability distribution.  ... 
doi:10.26577/be-2019-4-e9 fatcat:jp6vmav6djcsdfbjlweajhbjmq

Cultural memory

Kevin N. Laland, Luke Rendell
2013 Current Biology  
(A) Analysis of the social learning strategies tournament (Box 1) showed how increased reliance on social learning affects the diversity and longevity of culture.  ...  A recent mathematical analysis revealed an exponential relationship between transmission fidelity and the longevity of cultural knowledge [4] ( Figure 2B ).  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.cub.2013.07.071 pmid:24028955 fatcat:wrbz5kxzzvajjf4j2qqkyei66y

How Models Fail [chapter]

Eckhart Arnold
2015 Collective Agency and Cooperation in Natural and Artificial Systems  
At the same time this lack of empirical testing and confirmation has almost entirely been ignored by the modelers community.  ...  In this paper, I examine some of the typical narratives and standard arguments with which these models are justified by their authors despite the lack of empirical validation.  ...  Therefore, the tournament was conducted which gathers a contingent but large selection of strategies.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-15515-9_14 fatcat:wujooj7jknbtnch74nfvdvld64

Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis

Charles E. Cunningham, Ken Deal, Yvonne Chen
2010 Patient  
Dr Mark Loeb provided helpful advice regarding the design of the H1N1 survey used to illustrate ACBC methods. Bryan Orme provided thoughtful comments during the preparation of this manuscript.  ...  Acknowledgments This project was supported by the Jack Laidlaw Chair in Patient-Centered Health at McMaster University Faculty of Health Sciences.  ...  of utilities, and to better predict real-world preferences  ... 
doi:10.2165/11537870-000000000-00000 pmid:22273433 pmcid:PMC3580138 fatcat:qfatka24r5exrklfg5idutbra4

Incentives versus Sorting in Tournaments: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Edwin Leuven, Hessel Oosterbeek, Joep Sonnemans, Bas van der Klaauw
2011 Journal of Labor Economics  
A vast body of empirical studies lends support to the incentive effects of rankorder tournaments.  ...  A standard non-experimental analysis exploiting across tournament variation in reward size and competitiveness confirms earlier findings.  ...  To make the pool of competitors in tournaments more homogeneous and to mimic a realistic feature of real-world tournaments, we let participants sort themselves into tournaments with different reward sizes  ... 
doi:10.1086/659345 fatcat:ahb52py22fe3pfvp5nye6qguli
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