Filters








168 Hits in 8.2 sec

Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact

Mattia Mazzoli, Emanuele Pepe, David Mateo, Ciro Cattuto, Laetitia Gauvin, Paolo Bajardi, Michele Tizzoni, Alberto Hernando, Sandro Meloni, José J. Ramasco, Alex Perkins
2021 PLoS Computational Biology  
Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID  ...  When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger  ...  We study the connection between inter-city mobility flows and incidence curves to find a clear relation between mobility and COVID-19 incidence peaks across Europe.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009326 pmid:34648495 fatcat:yl2blv2cprbrrdl5n5snlm6mfu

COVID-19 impacts and adaptations in Asia and Africa's aquatic food value chains

Ben Belton, Leah Rosen, Lucinda Middleton, Saadiah Ghazali, Abdullah-Al Mamun, Jacqueline Shieh, Hamia S. Noronha, Goutam Dhar, Mohammod Ilyas, Christopher Price, Ahmed Nasr-Allah, Ibrahim Elsira (+14 others)
2021 Marine Policy  
We tracked the impacts of COVID-19 and associated policy responses on the availability and price of aquatic foods and production inputs during 2020, using a high frequency longitudinal survey of 768 respondents  ...  The COVID-19 pandemic is a shock affecting all areas of the global food system.  ...  Strategy: Aquatic Foods for Healthy People and Planet, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104523 pmid:34744258 pmcid:PMC8564473 fatcat:5lkbeg5nwrdrpeelqaap3wqrzi

Putting food systems thinking into practice: Integrating agricultural sectors into a multi-level analytical framework

Gareth D. Borman, Walter S. de Boef, Flo Dirks, Yeray Saavedra Gonzalez, Abishkar Subedi, Marja H. Thijssen, Judith Jacobs, Ted Schrader, Salome Boyd, Hermine J. ten Hove, Edwin van der Maden, Irene Koomen (+10 others)
2022 Global Food Security  
We share an application of the integrated framework in a particular case: rapid assessments of the impact of COVID-19 on the functioning of the horticulture, sesame, and seed sectors across seven low-and  ...  We highlight lessons learned from applying the multi-level integrated framework for putting food systems thinking into practice.  ...  Acknowledgements We recognize the tremendous commitment of sector stakeholders in Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Myanmar, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda, and their efforts in conducting and participating  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100591 fatcat:necxe2h5pfeahkbp6lrcriszri

Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review [article]

Nicola Perra
2020 arXiv   pre-print
Here, I aim to review some of the vast literature written on the subject of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic.  ...  Before COVID-19 the literature on the subject was mainly theoretical and largely missed validation. The main issue was the lack of empirical data capturing behavioral change induced by diseases.  ...  Their value and impact in the fight against COVID-19 cannot be overstated.  ... 
arXiv:2012.15230v1 fatcat:g2474tlbmjaypmjf5rz4u4pzzm

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Robin N. Thompson, T. Déirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ben Ashby, Tom Britton, Peter Challenor, Lauren H. K. Chappell, Hannah Clapham, Nik J. Cunniffe, A. Philip Dawid, Christl A. Donnelly (+31 others)
2020 Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences  
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.  ...  This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources  ...  Many sources of heterogeneity between individuals (and between populations) exist, including the strong skew of severe COVID-19 outcomes towards the elderly and individuals from specific groups.  ... 
doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.1405 pmid:32781946 pmcid:PMC7575516 fatcat:gu6faqxw2nelxpzrpbm3cy7lxu

Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies [article]

Robin N Thompson, T Deirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ben Ashby, Tom Britton, Peter Challoner, Lauren H K Chappell, Hannah Clapham, Nik J Cunniffe, A Philip Dawid, Christl A Donnelly (+31 others)
2020 arXiv   pre-print
The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand  ...  Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.  ...  We are now moving into a stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in which data collection and novel research to inform the modelling issues discussed here are both possible and essential for global health.  ... 
arXiv:2006.13012v4 fatcat:d6tfm77cbfbjxe7vbca3xa2w3u

Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 on the Italian Agri-Food Sector: An Analysis of the Quarter of Pandemic Lockdown and Clues for a Socio-Economic and Territorial Restart

Gianni Barcaccia, Vincenzo D'Agostino, Alessandro Zotti, Bruno Cozzi
2020 Sustainability  
Our prospective paper reports an updated analysis of the impact that this pandemic had on the Italian agri-food sector during the national lockdown and discusses why and how this unprecedented economic  ...  The effect on the typical food and wine exports, and the local environment tourism segments is also taken into account in this analysis, because of their old and deep roots into the cultural and historical  ...  This study was carried out in partial fulfilment of the research program carried out by the Think Tank of the University of Padova "Post COVID-19: Ideas for the Recovery."  ... 
doi:10.3390/su12145651 fatcat:lv47rwyqzjfljnyglstsldhkom

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA

Karl J. Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman, Adeel Razi, Guillaume Flandin, Jean Daunizeau, Oliver J. Hulme, Alexander J. Billig, Vladimir Litvak, Catherine J. Price, Rosalyn J. Moran, Christian Lambert
2021 Wellcome Open Research  
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region.  ...  Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses  ...  Models of the international spread of COVID-19-such as the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEAM)-usually partition the world into regions centred on major transportation hubs (e.g., airports).  ... 
doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15986.3 fatcat:zyp3fsg7x5hx3jopcoyzjyhspq

Generalised functional additive mixed models with compositional covariates for areal Covid-19 incidence curves [article]

Matthias Eckardt and Jorge Mateu and Sonja Greven
2022 arXiv   pre-print
We use the model to estimate the effect of the age, sex and smoking (functional) composition of the population on regional Covid-19 incidence data for Spain, while accounting for climatological and socio-demographic  ...  covariate effects and spatial correlation.  ...  ., Meloni, S. and Ramasco, J. J. (2020) Effects of mobility and multi-seeding on the propagation of the covid-19 in spain. medRxiv.  ... 
arXiv:2201.08362v1 fatcat:pnkve64hzzbczb4fufplrv4ehy

Endemic infectious states below the epidemic threshold and beyond herd immunity [article]

Javier Aguilar, Raúl Toral, Sandro Meloni, Jose J. Ramasco
2022 arXiv   pre-print
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, we have assisted at a sequence of epidemic peaks as prevention measures were enforced and relaxed.  ...  The main findings hold for a variety of epidemic and mobility models, network topologies connecting the subpopulations and demographic distributions.  ...  093732-B-C21/C22), and the María de Maeztu Program for units of Excellence in R&D, grant MDM-2017-0711 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.  ... 
arXiv:2207.03462v2 fatcat:o43322ucerg77epdwic3a4dzlu

Killing Two Birds with One Stone? Green Dead Ends and Ways Out of the COVID-19 Crisis

Erik Gawel, Paul Lehmann
2020 Environmental and Resource Economics  
Abandoning barriers to green investments and imposing a carbon price are equally important.  ...  Where economically sensible, green subsidies should contribute both to stabilizing the economy and mitigating climate change.  ...  mobility in EU27 + UK, as a consequence of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10640-020-00443-y pmid:32836828 pmcid:PMC7340856 fatcat:k5whawvj2rfydbinxka5y6ksoi

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA

Karl J. Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman, Adeel Razi, Guillaume Flandin, Jean Daunizeau, Oliver J. Hulme, Alexander J. Billig, Vladimir Litvak, Catherine J. Price, Rosalyn J. Moran, Christian Lambert
2021 Wellcome Open Research  
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region.  ...  Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses  ...  The data appeared to be read in successfully, but subsequently, an indexing error was hit and I was not able to debug further.  ... 
doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15986.2 fatcat:trbucjng6nfdzbqbg5qtwjivp4

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America [article]

Karl J. Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman, Adeel Razi, Guillaume Flandin, Jean Daunizeau, Oliver J. Hulme, Alexander J. Billig, Vladimir Litvak, Cathy J. Price, Rosalyn J. Moran, Christian Lambert
2020 arXiv   pre-print
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region.  ...  Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care.  ...  Models of the international spread of COVID-19-such as the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEAM)-usually partition the world into regions centred on major transportation hubs (e.g., airports).  ... 
arXiv:2004.13017v1 fatcat:u4ujunp63fbljff7b7rcw4syfe

Modeling Epidemic Spreading through Public Transit using Time-Varying Encounter Network [article]

Baichuan Mo, Kairui Feng, Yu Shen, Clarence Tam, Daqing Li, Yafeng Yin, Jinhua Zhao
2020 arXiv   pre-print
Social activity contacts at both local and global levels are also considered.  ...  We select the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a case study along with smart card data from Singapore to illustrate the model at the metropolitan level.  ...  However, static networks are only approximations of the real interplay between time scales.  ... 
arXiv:2004.04602v2 fatcat:jy6mbfi4y5gwpn5p2fsbhvkdh4

Retarded logistic equation as a universal dynamic model for the spread of COVID-19 [article]

B Shayak, Mohit M Sharma
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
In this work we propose the retarded logistic equation as a dynamic model for the spread of COVID-19 all over the world.  ...  We believe that the spread of COVID in every localized area such as a city, district or county can be accounted for by one of our solution classes.  ...  Similarly, the difference between Cities B and D is an 11-day delay (recall that the first seven days in the plots are the seeding period, so they don't count) in imposing the lockdown in D. 11 days out  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.06.09.20126573 fatcat:l53xv66uhnb53lnsyqooxnqq4m
« Previous Showing results 1 — 15 out of 168 results