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Real-time air quality forecasting, part II: State of the science, current research needs, and future prospects

Yang Zhang, Marc Bocquet, Vivien Mallet, Christian Seigneur, Alexander Baklanov
2012 Atmospheric Environment  
and sophisticated statistical models, and supported with modern numerical/computational technologies and a suite of real-time observational data from all platforms.  ...  Part II highlights several recent scientific advances in some of these areas that can be incorporated into RT-AQF models to address model deficiencies and improve forecast accuracies.  ...  The empirical variance of the ensemble provides a confidence interval along with the forecast itself (which may be given by an ensemble mean).  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.02.041 fatcat:tqbzq64l25erxo2uqcbzfbjlkq

Inter-ocean fluxes south of Africa in an eddy-permitting model

C.J.C. Reason, J.R.E. Lutjeharms, J. Hermes, A. Biastoch, R.E. Roman
2003 Deep-sea research. Part II, Topical studies in oceanography  
Acknowledgements This research forms part of the author's PhD and has been supported by the Water Research Commission. References Biastoch, A., and W.  ...  The experiments have been part of the KIHZproject of the Helmholtz-Society. The authors also wish to express thank to D.  ...  by climate variability associated with the NAO.  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0967-0645(02)00385-5 fatcat:tf2nsr4glbc4pbr72xuuis7ofm

Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity

R. C. Reiner, A. A. King, M. Emch, M. Yunus, A. S. G. Faruque, M. Pascual
2012 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
Critically, we find that the action of climate variability (El Niño southern oscillation and flooding) is quite localized: There is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest  ...  . risk propagation | cholera and flooding | disease forecasting | inhomogeneous Markov chain | spatiotemporal dynamics of urban cholera  ...  The cholera case data used in this paper were collected with the support of ICDDR,B and its donors who provide unrestricted support to ICDDR,B for its operation and research.  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.1108438109 pmid:22308325 pmcid:PMC3277579 fatcat:nxyoudm46bannonkrjtqskrwye

Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts

Ralf Weisse, Debora Bellafiore, Melisa Menéndez, Fernando Méndez, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, Patrick Willems
2014 Coastal Engineering  
Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show  ...  In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles.  ...  There is considerable inter-annual and decadal variability in the meteorological induced parts of sea level extremes, but no clear trend.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.017 fatcat:bbysxd2lwfezvlkc4xpxv5mami

Childhood vaccines and antibiotic use in low- and middle-income countries

Joseph A. Lewnard, Nathan C. Lo, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Isabel Frost, Ramanan Laxminarayan
2020 Nature  
By analysing data from large-scale studies of households, we estimate that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and live attenuated rotavirus vaccines confer 19.7% (95% confidence interval, 3.4-43.4%) and 11.4%  ...  Vaccines may reduce the burden of antimicrobial resistance, in part by preventing infections for which treatment often includes the use of antibiotics1-4.  ...  estimates of uncertainty (e.g. confidence intervals)For null hypothesis testing, the test statistic (e.g.  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2238-4 pmid:32376956 fatcat:4axyszzu5zailbfpffyammdwwe

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Cornelia Schwierz, Pamela Köllner-Heck, Evelyn Zenklusen Mutter, David N. Bresch, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Martin Wild, Christoph Schär
2009 Climatic Change  
Insured stormrelated losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular  ...  conditions of the risk transfer.  ...  Acknowledgements Parts of the data have been provided through the PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the EU through contract EVK2-CT2001-00132. We are particularly indebted to Jens H.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9712-1 fatcat:batwi4vtibgo5pkxsjw5tea6ia

Examination of the uncertainty in contaminant fate and transport modeling: A case study in the Venice Lagoon

J. Sommerfreund, G.B. Arhonditsis, M.L. Diamond, M. Frignani, G. Capodaglio, M. Gerino, L. Bellucci, S. Giuliani, C. Mugnai
2010 Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety  
the northern and central parts of the lagoon and the more isolated southern basin.  ...  We found that modeled concentrations of Cu, Pb, OCDD/F and PCB-180 varied by up to an order of magnitude, exhibiting both contaminant-and site-specific variability.  ...  in the Venice Lagoon: experimental and modellistic approach''.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ecoenv.2009.05.008 pmid:19493571 fatcat:z335qshkcnflnntbonu3j2xq5m

The Eulerian urban dispersion model EPISODE. Part II: Extensions to the source dispersion and photochemistry for EPISODE-CityChem v1.2 and its application to the city of Hamburg

Matthias Karl, Sam-Erik Walker, Sverre Solberg, Martin O. P. Ramacher
2019 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions  
EPISODE-CityChem was evaluated with a series of tests and with a first application to the air quality situation in the city of Hamburg, Germany.  ...  of the 8-h running mean) and PM<sub>10</sub> (daily mean) set forth in the Air Quality Directive, qualifying the model for use in policy applications.  ...  Part one examines the application of EPISODE to air quality scenarios in the Nordic winter setting.  ... 
doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-325 fatcat:56uussxa6bfspgicyn4now72gu

A Bayesian integrated population dynamics model to analyze data for protected species

Hoyle, S. D., Maunder, M. N.
2004 Animal Biodiversity and Conservation  
We describe a method for estimating population dynamics and decision analysis that is generally applicable, extremely flexible, uses data efficiently, and gives answers in a useful format.  ...  It ensures that model assumptions and parameter estimates are consistent throughout the analysis, that uncertainty is propagated through the analysis, and that the correlations among parameters are preserved  ...  Jay Barlow, Susan Chivers, Tim Gerrodette, and Steve Reilly of the NMFS helped with data and advice.  ... 
doaj:3f7f1a670eea4440a89b8b44f9dbf8ee fatcat:6irq7wfnjrfdthcscya7sccmvi

Mesoscale Mapping of Sediment Source Hotspots for Dam Sediment Management in Data-Sparse Semi-Arid Catchments

Smetanová, Müller, Zargar, Suleiman, Gholami, Mousavi
2020 Water  
Erosion and high sediment loads in rivers cause reservoir siltation and decrease storage capacity, which pose risk on water security for citizens, agriculture, and industry.  ...  Despite widespread availability of rigorous methods, approaches simplifying spatial and temporal variability of erosion are often inappropriately applied to very data sparse semi-arid regions.  ...  Data availability statement: The data used in this study are publicly available, and cited in the reference section.  ... 
doi:10.3390/w12020396 fatcat:bvvikqlcvvduvfvr2pldixpymq

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mathilde Sørensen, Stephane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili (+39 others)
2021 Frontiers in Earth Science  
To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful.  ...  In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions.  ...  Understanding and estimating the annual probability of landslide failure in rock slopes with complex fracture patterns and stress conditions is associated with large uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.3389/feart.2021.628772 fatcat:7mtsxakc5rfitdthowj6urirvq

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models

Hadush Meresa, Bernhard Tischbein, Tewodros Mekonnen
2022 Natural Hazards  
These results provide useful knowledge for policy-relevant flood indices, water resources and flood risk control and for studies related to uncertainty associated with peak flood magnitude and frequency  ...  With the advent of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, flood managers and water resource planners are interested to know how changes in catchment flood risk are expected to alter relative  ...  Acknowledgements This study is supported by the DAAD and FIAT PANIS program.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11069-021-05152-3 fatcat:nh7an4jdrrdbzfyvkkctqhugpy

The Uncertain Value of Perfect ENSO Phase Forecasts: Stochastic Agricultural Prices and Intra-Phase Climatic Variations

David Letson, Guillermo P. Podestá, Carlos D. Messina, R. Andrés Ferreyra
2005 Climatic Change  
Climate and crop yield variability associated with El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are now predictable within limits.  ...  The use of synthetic weather and crop price series, with crop simulation models, helps show the range and likelihood of climate forecast value.  ...  Acknowledgements This work was supported by grants from NOAA (Office of Global Programs) and the National Science Foundation (Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment Initiative, Biocomplexity in the  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10584-005-1814-9 fatcat:6uojd4r4cfbu7eenmj4vtquxje

Wind Waves in the Mediterranean Sea: An ERA5 Reanalysis Wind-Based Climatology

Francesco Barbariol, Silvio Davison, Francesco Marcello Falcieri, Rossella Ferretti, Antonio Ricchi, Mauro Sclavo, Alvise Benetazzo
2021 Frontiers in Marine Science  
A possible relationship with the atmospheric parameter anomalies and with teleconnection patterns (through climate indices) that motivates such variability is investigated, with results suggesting that  ...  The results, initially presented for the four seasons and then for winter and summer only, show the regions of the basin where largest waves occur and those with the largest temporal variability.  ...  variability in the MS, which are also valid for the inter-annual variability.  ... 
doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.760614 fatcat:madjttwk75dofgegrita4jqtiq

The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes

Hadush K. Meresa, Renata J. Romanowicz
2017 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences  
This implies that ignoring one of the three uncertainty sources may cause great risk to future hydrological extreme adaptations and water resource planning and management.</p>  ...  in fitting theoretical distribution models to annual extreme flow series.  ...  the associated 95 % confidence bounds (dashed line).  ... 
doi:10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017 fatcat:mkwaa5t4kzhbbmqdxwlindadlq
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