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A revaluation of lake-phosphorus loading models using a Bayesian hierarchical framework

Vincent Cheng, George B. Arhonditsis, Michael T. Brett
2009 Ecological research  
We revisit the phosphorus-retention and nutrient-loading models in limnology using a Bayesian hierarchical framework.  ...  Keywords Total phosphorus AE Bayesian hierarchical modeling AE Hydraulic retention time AE Sedimentation AE Water-quality standards AE Confidence of compliance ...the efficacy of predictive limnology is  ...  Our objective herein was to revisit the foundation of the existing phosphorus-retention and nutrient-loading models in order to demonstrate how the hierarchical Bayes can be used to balance between sitespecific  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11284-009-0630-5 fatcat:yjjj3h2v4rfjjke2q4ru2yt5yi

A Multilevel Model of the Impact of Farm-Level Best Management Practices on Phosphorus Runoff

K.H. Reckhow, S.S. Qian, R.D. Harmel
2009 Journal of the American Water Resources Association  
The result of this research is a model with parameters which vary with key practice categories and thus may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices on phosphorus runoff.  ...  model than when working with either all of the data together or working separately with the individuals.  ...  For example, in the environmental sciences, Reckhow (1996) used empirical Bayes (EB) analysis to develop a model that could be used to predict the index of biotic integrity at specific sites in the Scioto  ... 
doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00298.x fatcat:kr4xqrqkvrayrcu3idweeqwdcu

Integration of Bayesian Inference Techniques with Mathematical Modeling [chapter]

G. Arhonditsis, S. Stremilov, A. Gudimov, M. Ramin, W. Zhang
2011 Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science  
The lessons learned from this 26 study will contribute towards the development of integrated modelling frameworks. 27 28  ...  The two eutrophication models are used in conjunction 21 with the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) 22 watershed model.  ...  Arhonditsis / Integration of Bayesian inference techniques with mathematical modelling the limited contact runoff has with the soil matrix, which tends to trap particulate 182 phosphorus and chemically  ... 
doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-374711-2.00910-4 fatcat:ztvgc5ejsff3ned6sgedmqfrai

A Bayesian hierarchical framework for calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models

Weitao Zhang, George B. Arhonditsis
2009 Ecological Modelling  
This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical formulation for simultaneously calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models at multiple systems (or sites of the same system) with differences in their trophic  ...  Finally, we discuss the prospect of extending this framework to spatially explicit biogeochemical models (e.g., more effectively connect inshore with offshore areas) along with the benefits for environmental  ...  Our objective herein was to demonstrate how the hierarchical Bayes can be used to simultaneously calibrate mathematical models at multiple sites with The degree of updating of the model input parameters  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.05.023 fatcat:jtsg6qphcjg7jptbpnsfwyk3yy

Using a Bayesian hierarchical model to improve Lake Erie cyanobacteria bloom forecasts

Daniel R. Obenour, Andrew D. Gronewold, Craig A. Stow, Donald Scavia
2014 Water Resources Research  
In this study, we address these uncertainties by relating latesummer bloom observations to spring phosphorus load within a Bayesian modeling framework.  ...  blooms (2014) , Using a Bayesian hierarchical model to improve Lake Erie cyanobacteria bloom forecasts, Water Resour.  ...  In addition, we thank Peter Richards and David Baker for assistance with the loading data. All data sources are described in sections 2.1 and 2.2. This is NOAA-GLERL contribution 1719.  ... 
doi:10.1002/2014wr015616 fatcat:5sqix3vym5a5rfd3uyzbhb573q

Bayesian Hierarchical/Multilevel Models for Inference and Prediction Using Cross-System Lake Data [chapter]

Craig A. Stow, E. Conrad Lamon, Song S. Qian, Patricia A. Soranno, Kenneth H. Reckhow
2009 Real World Ecology  
Multilevel/hierarchical models are similar in concept to random coefficient and empirical Bayes models which have been previously demonstrated with cross-system lake data (Reckhow 1993 , Reckhow 1996  ...  Bayes theorem offers modelers considerably more flexibility.  ...  orcopied in whole or in part without the written permission ofthe publisher (Springer Science + Business Media, LLC, 233 Sprinl Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-0-387-77942-3_5 fatcat:vy5yedlakvg6fiuadhtuwvy5fu

Delineation of the role of nutrient dynamics and hydrologic forcing on phytoplankton patterns along a freshwater–marine continuum

George B. Arhonditsis, Craig A. Stow, Hans W. Paerl, Lexia M. Valdes-Weaver, Laura J. Steinberg, Kenneth H. Reckhow
2007 Ecological Modelling  
Model results highlight the stronger association between phosphorus and total phytoplankton dynamics at the upstream freshwater locations; both nitrogen and phosphorus played a significant role in the  ...  We used a Bayesian structural equation modeling (SEM) approach that considers the regulatory role of the physical environment (flow, salinity, and light availability), nitrogen (dissolved oxidized inorganic  ...  , and the model performance with or without phosphorus (N + P versus N models) was evaluated by the use of the Bayes factor (Kass and Raftery, 1995) .  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.06.010 fatcat:pzxrxvnguvgnheqwhv6ydrinsq

Evolutionary Pathways of Diagnosis in Osteoporosis [chapter]

Antonio Bazarra-Fernandez
2012 Osteoporosis  
In statistics, the use of Bayes factors is a Bayesian alternative to classical hypothesis testing. Bayesian model comparison is a method of model selection based on Bayes factors.  ...  FEA is a widely-used technique for the computer modelling of structures under mechanical loading.  ... 
doi:10.5772/29405 fatcat:jv3qolrzl5cwjjcezlnggjwccu

Soil total phosphorus threshold in the Everglades: a Bayesian changepoint analysis for multinomial response data

Song S. Qian, Yangdong Pan, Ryan S. King
2004 Ecological Indicators  
As a cumulative indicator of phosphorus loading to the wetland system, the top 10 cm soil TP concentration is often used to indicate eutrophication.  ...  A Bayesian changepoint model was developed in this study. The statistical model can directly use species assemblage data as a measure of structural change.  ...  This shows that the mesocosm soil TP may have not reached an equilibrium with TP loading and thus may not be indicative of phosphorus availability.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2003.11.005 fatcat:2psfsdlg2neczel2sey5p4lcom

Temporal mapping of phytoplankton assemblages in Lake Geneva: Annual and interannual changes in their patterns of succession

Orlane Anneville, Sami Souissi, Frédéric Ibanez, Vincent Ginot, Jean Claude Druart, Nadine Angeli
2002 Limnology and Oceanography  
However, in the 1990s, phytoplankton biomass increased again, almost reaching the high values recorded during the period of greatest P loading.  ...  column, where phosphorus was still abundant.  ...  In the early 1980s, the phosphorus concentration responded to the reduction in P loading, and mean annual concentrations in total phosphorus fell from a maximum of 89.5 g P L Ϫ1 in 1979 to 39.6 g P L Ϫ1  ... 
doi:10.4319/lo.2002.47.5.1355 fatcat:i4bxox4mird3rhspm4c2gfibye

Physiochemical properties influencing biomass abundance and primary production in Lake Hoare, Antarctica

Radu Herbei, W. Berry Lyons, Johanna Laybourn-Parry, Christopher Gardner, John C. Priscu, Diane M. McKnight
2010 Ecological Modelling  
Primary production rates (PPR) are strongly correlated to light (PAR) at 12-15 m and to soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) at 8-22 m.  ...  For example, in Borsuk et al. (2001) , the authors implement a hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting benthic oxygen demand from organic matter loading.  ...  is, the right hand side of (2) does not necessarily integrate to one with respect to the parameters (while the left hand side does).  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.12.015 fatcat:mwxiwlqm3rdj3o2m3vc76b2pvq

Using Landscape Limnology to Classify Freshwater Ecosystems for Multi-ecosystem Management and Conservation

Patricia A. Soranno, Kendra Spence Cheruvelil, Katherine E. Webster, Mary T. Bremigan, Tyler Wagner, Craig A. Stow
2010 BioScience  
approach, considering multiple spatial scales as drivers of ecosystem dynamics, and acknowledging the hierarchical structure of freshwater ecosystems.  ...  We demonstrate our system by applying two types of predictive classification modeling approaches to develop nutrient criteria for eutrophication management in 1998 north temperate lakes.  ...  Using Bayes' species conservation.  ... 
doi:10.1525/bio.2010.60.6.8 fatcat:mnnm7pjtjbfq3d4wzawjkmytni

Chlorophyll a as an indicator of microcystin: Short-term forecasting and risk assessment in Lake Erie

Song S. Qian, Craig A. Stow, Freya E. Rowland, Qianqian Liu, Mark D. Rowe, Eric J. Anderson, Richard P. Stumpf, Thomas H. Johengen
2021 Ecological Indicators  
The model evolves over time with additional data to reflect the changing dynamics of cyanobacterial toxin production.  ...  Keyword: Bayesian hierarchical model harmful algal blooms informative priors predictive model sequential updating A B S T R A C T We developed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to establish a  ...  By comparing the empirical Bayes literature and studies on Stein's paradox, we suggest that the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework provides a descriptive means for deriving informative prior distribution  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108055 fatcat:i3porbr3zvekno3gg2zzskdnwa

Case Study of the Chicago River Watershed: Physical Modeling vs Data-driven Modeling of an Urban Watershed

Naila Mahdi, Haithum Elhadi, Krishna Pagilla
2017 Journal of Water Management Modeling  
However, it is always useful to have modeling alternatives to validate the simulation results of a physically based model with a data-driven one.  ...  The 5 y water quality simulation resulted in finding total nitrates loadings at both point and nonpoint sources.  ...  The ship canal was also observed to carry the majority of ammonia and phosphorus loads during low flow conditions.  ... 
doi:10.14796/jwmm.c431 fatcat:5w7mzhidazh5dm6jbrswi2w7we

Spatio-temporal trends of nitrogen deposition and climate effects on Sphagnum productivity in European peatlands

Gustaf Granath, Juul Limpens, Maximilian Posch, Sander Mücher, Wim de Vries
2014 Environmental Pollution  
with climate warming.  ...  Using a modelling approach we estimated that between 1900-1950 N 53 deposition impacts remained limited irrespective of geographical position.  ...  (Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Greece, see 6 178 179 180 182 183 184 Table 1 . 1 Results of the Hierarchical Bayes Linear Models (HBLM) with log e response ratio.Negative coefficients  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2013.12.023 pmid:24457298 fatcat:tckdqiqz6nclbdvkju7alpwaoi
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