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Inferring Metapopulation Propagation Network for Intra-city Epidemic Control and Prevention
[article]
2018
arXiv
pre-print
Preserved Fulltext
Understanding the propagation in large-scale metapopulations and predicting the future outbreaks thus become crucially important for epidemic control and prevention. ...
In this paper, we argue that the intra-city epidemic propagation should be modeled on a metapopulation base, and propose a two-step method for this purpose. ...
to describe the propagation of epidemic in an intra-city metapopulation. ...
arXiv:1806.08978v1
fatcat:qcgrcqi3ffbbnjgwynvesxs5iq
Spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation: An overview
[article]
2014
biorxiv/medrxiv
pre-print
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This review elaborates the latest progresses on the spatial metapopulation dynamics, discusses empirical and theoretical findings that verify the validity of networked metapopulations, and the application ...
An emerging disease is one infectious epidemic caused by a newly transmissible pathogen, which has either appeared for the first time or already existed in human populations, having the capacity to increase ...
Acknowledgments We appreciate the two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. We are grateful to the instructive discussions with Guanrong Chen, Joseph T. Wu, Shlomo Havlin, Ming Tang ...
doi:10.1101/003889
fatcat:5ytjn43ibfhorjzw65g25ymdpe
Spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation: an overview
2014
Chinese Science Bulletin
Preserved Fulltext
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This review elaborates the latest progresses on the spatial metapopulation dynamics, discusses empirical and theoretical findings that verify the validity of networked metapopulations, and the sketches ...
An emerging disease is one infectious epidemic caused by a newly transmissible pathogen, which has either appeared for the first time or already existed in human populations, having the capacity to increase ...
Acknowledgments We appreciate the two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. We are grateful to the instructive discussions with Guanrong Chen, Joseph T. Wu, Shlomo Havlin, Ming Tang ...
doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0499-8
pmid:32214746
pmcid:PMC7088704
fatcat:iiea2yqjkzbdjopi4v3zwbbwj4
Periodicity in Movement Patterns Shapes Epidemic Risk in Urban Environments
[article]
2018
arXiv
pre-print
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Here, we use a dynamic metapopulation model informed by hourly transit data for Shanghai to estimate epidemic risks across thousands of outbreak scenarios. ...
With a highly mobile population exceeding 24 million people, Shanghai, China is a transportation hub at high risk for the importation and subsequent global propagation of infectious diseases. ...
Epidemic growth rates are expected to be highest for outbreaks originating at the heart of the city, at central locations in the urban mobility network, and on Fridays. ...
arXiv:1809.05203v1
fatcat:kaja54j7rba3fazabh6flsajqi
Interplay between population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics in cities
2021
Communications Physics
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We study 163 cities, chosen from four different continents, and report a global trend where the epidemic risk induced by human mobility increases consistently in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly ...
Here we develop a data-driven approach combines with a meta-population modeling to capture the interplay between population density, mobility and epidemic spreading. ...
Controlling for these other factors, as an application to potential epidemic waves, our indicator allows for identifying those cities that are likely to become epidemic centers once the first imported ...
doi:10.1038/s42005-021-00679-0
fatcat:5mcrzdlcrfezhlvyrjgn7c33zu
Highly coordinated nationwide massive travel restrictions are central to effective mitigation and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in China
[article]
2022
arXiv
pre-print
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epidemic under check. ...
As such, infections can propagate further into other interconnected places both near and far, thereby necessitating synchronous lockdowns. ...
F.F. is indebted to Dan Rockmore and Nicholas Christakis for stimulating discussions on pandemic modeling and data analysis. ...
arXiv:2201.02353v1
fatcat:ex6mgmobpfeediigd6arawbhda
Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations
2018
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
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There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. ...
In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. ...
Acknowledgments The authors thankfully acknowledge the computer resources, technical expertise and support provided by the Laboratorio Nacional de Supercómputo del Sureste de México, CONACYT network of ...
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006234
pmid:29432455
pmcid:PMC5825167
fatcat:4nbjrz6lbvgdrbphxoe42ixfyi
Applications of Technological Solutions in Primary Ways of Preventing Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases—A Systematic Literature Review
2021
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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Topics for further research and improvement were also identified such as the need for a better description of data analysis and evidence. ...
From the 1139 initially retrieved, 219 papers were selected for data extraction, analysis, and synthesis according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. ...
the
relative infection density definition
IEEE Access
2020
S130
[159]
Inferring Metapopulation Propagation
Network for Intra-city Epidemic Control
and Prevention
Two-step method for intra-city ...
doi:10.3390/ijerph182010765
pmid:34682511
fatcat:drvsrdvj4nftvgfyj2kkcrgmx4
COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2. Modeling the present, looking at the future
2020
Physics reports
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This includes the many ways of social contacts - (multiplex) social contact networks, (multilayers) transport systems, metapopulations, etc. - that may act as a framework for the virus propagation. ...
But modeling not only plays a fundamental role in analyzing and forecasting epidemiological variables, but it also plays an important role in helping to find cures for the disease and in preventing contagion ...
They focused on the propagation of COVID-19 within China for which they considered mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics ...
doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2020.07.005
pmid:32834430
pmcid:PMC7386394
fatcat:ytcgwdnjvjffhpe2qpxivpv5ge
Simple reaction-diffusion population model on scale-free networks
2008
Physical Review E
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Windus and H. J. Jensen, J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 40, 2287 (2007)] on scale-free networks. ...
In the case of modified diffusion, we obtain a larger critical death rate and steady population density, at the meanwhile, lower critical population density, which is good for the survival of species. ...
Additional funding to attend and present this work at the 2008 International Workshop and Conference on Network Science has been provided by the BBSRC. ...
doi:10.1103/physreve.78.047101
pmid:18999568
fatcat:6bfp2ub7vnbenfdfmmxgq63etm
How to Save Human Lives with Complexity Science
2014
Social Science Research Network
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We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain ...
The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. ...
and the source are credited. ...
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2390049
fatcat:w7et3cjzcffqrbbd3e7vbsfzuq
Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
2014
Journal of statistical physics
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We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain ...
The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. ...
and the source are credited. ...
doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1024-9
pmid:26074625
pmcid:PMC4457089
fatcat:cmvqhkwwubfdvnkh3zjew5qacu
State-by-State prediction of likely COVID-19 scenarios in the United States and assessment of the role of testing and control measures
[article]
2020
medRxiv
pre-print
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With key parameter values determined by empirical data, the model enables the most likely epidemic scenarios to be predicted for each State, which are indicative of whether testing services and control ...
The vast disparities in the epidemic trends among the States imply the need for long-term placement of control measures to fully contain COVID-19. ...
Another work studied the epidemic risks and trends in different cities in Spain [13] through traffic data-driven, stochastic simulations of virus propagation and diffusion in spatial regions and inference ...
doi:10.1101/2020.04.24.20078774
fatcat:ze6lh67onjgc5oiuc27selahba
Epidemic processes in complex networks
2015
Reviews of Modern Physics
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Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported. ...
Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens ...
We thank Nicole Samay for help with the diagrams and figures. ...
doi:10.1103/revmodphys.87.925
fatcat:uzfyzpqsjfhmtncx3qfcuresiy
Data-Driven Methods to Monitor, Model, Forecast and Control Covid-19 Pandemic: Leveraging Data Science, Epidemiology and Control Theory
[article]
2020
arXiv
pre-print
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When possible, we provide examples of their applications on past or present epidemics. We do not provide an exhaustive enumeration of methodologies, algorithms and applications. ...
The focus is on the potential of well-known datadriven schemes to address different challenges raised by the pandemic: i) monitoring and forecasting the spread of the epidemic; (ii) assessing the effectiveness ...
For example, non linear model predictive control can be used to control the epidemics by solely acting upon the individuals contact pattern or network [210] . ...
arXiv:2006.01731v2
fatcat:nntq6zi4y5fkfays2qgadyio5q
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