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Inferring Metapopulation Propagation Network for Intra-city Epidemic Control and Prevention [article]

Jingyuan Wang, Xiaojian Wang, Junjie Wu
2018 arXiv   pre-print
Understanding the propagation in large-scale metapopulations and predicting the future outbreaks thus become crucially important for epidemic control and prevention.  ...  In this paper, we argue that the intra-city epidemic propagation should be modeled on a metapopulation base, and propose a two-step method for this purpose.  ...  to describe the propagation of epidemic in an intra-city metapopulation.  ... 
arXiv:1806.08978v1 fatcat:qcgrcqi3ffbbnjgwynvesxs5iq

Spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation: An overview [article]

Lin WANG, Xiang Li
2014 biorxiv/medrxiv   pre-print
This review elaborates the latest progresses on the spatial metapopulation dynamics, discusses empirical and theoretical findings that verify the validity of networked metapopulations, and the application  ...  An emerging disease is one infectious epidemic caused by a newly transmissible pathogen, which has either appeared for the first time or already existed in human populations, having the capacity to increase  ...  Acknowledgments We appreciate the two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. We are grateful to the instructive discussions with Guanrong Chen, Joseph T. Wu, Shlomo Havlin, Ming Tang  ... 
doi:10.1101/003889 fatcat:5ytjn43ibfhorjzw65g25ymdpe

Spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation: an overview

Lin Wang, Xiang Li
2014 Chinese Science Bulletin  
This review elaborates the latest progresses on the spatial metapopulation dynamics, discusses empirical and theoretical findings that verify the validity of networked metapopulations, and the sketches  ...  An emerging disease is one infectious epidemic caused by a newly transmissible pathogen, which has either appeared for the first time or already existed in human populations, having the capacity to increase  ...  Acknowledgments We appreciate the two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. We are grateful to the instructive discussions with Guanrong Chen, Joseph T. Wu, Shlomo Havlin, Ming Tang  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0499-8 pmid:32214746 pmcid:PMC7088704 fatcat:iiea2yqjkzbdjopi4v3zwbbwj4

Periodicity in Movement Patterns Shapes Epidemic Risk in Urban Environments [article]

Zhanwei Du, Spencer J Fox, Petter Holme, Jiming Liu, Alison P. Galvani, Lauren Ancel Meyers
2018 arXiv   pre-print
Here, we use a dynamic metapopulation model informed by hourly transit data for Shanghai to estimate epidemic risks across thousands of outbreak scenarios.  ...  With a highly mobile population exceeding 24 million people, Shanghai, China is a transportation hub at high risk for the importation and subsequent global propagation of infectious diseases.  ...  Epidemic growth rates are expected to be highest for outbreaks originating at the heart of the city, at central locations in the urban mobility network, and on Fridays.  ... 
arXiv:1809.05203v1 fatcat:kaja54j7rba3fazabh6flsajqi

Interplay between population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics in cities

Surendra Hazarie, David Soriano-Paños, Alex Arenas, Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes, Gourab Ghoshal
2021 Communications Physics  
We study 163 cities, chosen from four different continents, and report a global trend where the epidemic risk induced by human mobility increases consistently in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly  ...  Here we develop a data-driven approach combines with a meta-population modeling to capture the interplay between population density, mobility and epidemic spreading.  ...  Controlling for these other factors, as an application to potential epidemic waves, our indicator allows for identifying those cities that are likely to become epidemic centers once the first imported  ... 
doi:10.1038/s42005-021-00679-0 fatcat:5mcrzdlcrfezhlvyrjgn7c33zu

Highly coordinated nationwide massive travel restrictions are central to effective mitigation and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in China [article]

Xingru Chen, Feng Fu
2022 arXiv   pre-print
epidemic under check.  ...  As such, infections can propagate further into other interconnected places both near and far, thereby necessitating synchronous lockdowns.  ...  F.F. is indebted to Dan Rockmore and Nicholas Christakis for stimulating discussions on pandemic modeling and data analysis.  ... 
arXiv:2201.02353v1 fatcat:ex6mgmobpfeediigd6arawbhda

Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations

Jorge Velázquez-Castro, Andrés Anzo-Hernández, Beatriz Bonilla-Capilla, Moisés Soto-Bajo, Andrés Fraguela-Collar, Robert C Reiner
2018 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases  
There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases.  ...  In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient.  ...  Acknowledgments The authors thankfully acknowledge the computer resources, technical expertise and support provided by the Laboratorio Nacional de Supercómputo del Sureste de México, CONACYT network of  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006234 pmid:29432455 pmcid:PMC5825167 fatcat:4nbjrz6lbvgdrbphxoe42ixfyi

Applications of Technological Solutions in Primary Ways of Preventing Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases—A Systematic Literature Review

Gleidson Sobreira Leite, Adriano Bessa Albuquerque, Plácido Rogerio Pinheiro
2021 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health  
Topics for further research and improvement were also identified such as the need for a better description of data analysis and evidence.  ...  From the 1139 initially retrieved, 219 papers were selected for data extraction, analysis, and synthesis according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria.  ...  the relative infection density definition IEEE Access 2020 S130 [159] Inferring Metapopulation Propagation Network for Intra-city Epidemic Control and Prevention Two-step method for intra-city  ... 
doi:10.3390/ijerph182010765 pmid:34682511 fatcat:drvsrdvj4nftvgfyj2kkcrgmx4

COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2. Modeling the present, looking at the future

Ernesto Estrada
2020 Physics reports  
This includes the many ways of social contacts - (multiplex) social contact networks, (multilayers) transport systems, metapopulations, etc. - that may act as a framework for the virus propagation.  ...  But modeling not only plays a fundamental role in analyzing and forecasting epidemiological variables, but it also plays an important role in helping to find cures for the disease and in preventing contagion  ...  They focused on the propagation of COVID-19 within China for which they considered mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2020.07.005 pmid:32834430 pmcid:PMC7386394 fatcat:ytcgwdnjvjffhpe2qpxivpv5ge

Simple reaction-diffusion population model on scale-free networks

An-Cai Wu, Xin-Jian Xu, J. F. F. Mendes, Ying-Hai Wang
2008 Physical Review E  
Windus and H. J. Jensen, J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 40, 2287 (2007)] on scale-free networks.  ...  In the case of modified diffusion, we obtain a larger critical death rate and steady population density, at the meanwhile, lower critical population density, which is good for the survival of species.  ...  Additional funding to attend and present this work at the 2008 International Workshop and Conference on Network Science has been provided by the BBSRC.  ... 
doi:10.1103/physreve.78.047101 pmid:18999568 fatcat:6bfp2ub7vnbenfdfmmxgq63etm

How to Save Human Lives with Complexity Science

Dirk Helbing, Dirk Brockmann, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay, Ulf Blanke, Olivia Woolley-Meza, Mehdi Moussaid, Anders Johansson, Jens Krause, Sebastian Schutte, Matjaz Perc
2014 Social Science Research Network  
We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain  ...  The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science.  ...  and the source are credited.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2390049 fatcat:w7et3cjzcffqrbbd3e7vbsfzuq

Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute

Dirk Helbing, Dirk Brockmann, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay, Ulf Blanke, Olivia Woolley-Meza, Mehdi Moussaid, Anders Johansson, Jens Krause, Sebastian Schutte, Matjaž Perc
2014 Journal of statistical physics  
We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain  ...  The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science.  ...  and the source are credited.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1024-9 pmid:26074625 pmcid:PMC4457089 fatcat:cmvqhkwwubfdvnkh3zjew5qacu

State-by-State prediction of likely COVID-19 scenarios in the United States and assessment of the role of testing and control measures [article]

Zheng-Meng Zhai, Yong-Shang Long, Jie Kang, Yi-Lin Li, Lang Zeng, Li-Lei Han, Zhao-Hua Lin, Yin-Qi Zeng, Da-Yu Wu, Ming Tang, Di Xu, Zonghua Liu (+1 others)
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
With key parameter values determined by empirical data, the model enables the most likely epidemic scenarios to be predicted for each State, which are indicative of whether testing services and control  ...  The vast disparities in the epidemic trends among the States imply the need for long-term placement of control measures to fully contain COVID-19.  ...  Another work studied the epidemic risks and trends in different cities in Spain [13] through traffic data-driven, stochastic simulations of virus propagation and diffusion in spatial regions and inference  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.04.24.20078774 fatcat:ze6lh67onjgc5oiuc27selahba

Epidemic processes in complex networks

Romualdo Pastor-Satorras, Claudio Castellano, Piet Van Mieghem, Alessandro Vespignani
2015 Reviews of Modern Physics  
Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.  ...  Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens  ...  We thank Nicole Samay for help with the diagrams and figures.  ... 
doi:10.1103/revmodphys.87.925 fatcat:uzfyzpqsjfhmtncx3qfcuresiy

Data-Driven Methods to Monitor, Model, Forecast and Control Covid-19 Pandemic: Leveraging Data Science, Epidemiology and Control Theory [article]

Teodoro Alamo, D. G. Reina, Pablo Millán
2020 arXiv   pre-print
When possible, we provide examples of their applications on past or present epidemics. We do not provide an exhaustive enumeration of methodologies, algorithms and applications.  ...  The focus is on the potential of well-known datadriven schemes to address different challenges raised by the pandemic: i) monitoring and forecasting the spread of the epidemic; (ii) assessing the effectiveness  ...  For example, non linear model predictive control can be used to control the epidemics by solely acting upon the individuals contact pattern or network [210] .  ... 
arXiv:2006.01731v2 fatcat:nntq6zi4y5fkfays2qgadyio5q
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