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A PERT Schedule Planning Method Based on the Improved Time Parameter Estimation

XUE-KAI ZHANG, HAO-HAN GAO, JIA LIU, JING-TAO FANG
2018 DEStech Transactions on Computer Science and Engineering  
This paper introduces a new PERT schedule planning method based on the improvement of the time parameter estimation.  ...  Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is one of the main project management methods used in electrical engineering construction.  ...  of mean and variance calculation formulas for fixed probability combinations.  ... 
doi:10.12783/dtcse/ceic2018/24519 fatcat:wwhtgrd4uzfwhbk6iurfeqvajy

A Review of Activity Time Distributions in Risk Analysis

Enobong Francis Udoumoh, Daniel W. Ebong
2017 American Journal of Operations Research  
For detail application of PERT, interested readers are referred to [1] [2] .  ...  Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) alongside recent modifications is a popular and useful tool in project risk analysis.  ...  Gollenko-Ginzburg [20] worked on the improvement of the classical PERT estimates based on only two subjective estimates the pessimistic 1) and optimistic 2) times.  ... 
doi:10.4236/ajor.2017.76027 fatcat:6lutlmkaireyri4bsvafajl6d4

Estimating completion-time distribution in stochastic activity networks

N-H Shih
2005 Journal of the Operational Research Society  
An improved PERT-type formula for standard deviation. JE Trans 30: 273-275. Lau H and Lau AH (1997).  ...  An improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution. J Forecasting 16: 83-95. Lau AH, Lau H and Zhang Y (1996).  ... 
doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601880 fatcat:od2f7vjkvbgrhie23pssulj3ji

Project Evaluation Review Technique Model to Dredging Operations in Niger Delta

Barinyima Nkoi, Animia Ajor Wordu, Fortune Worgu
2019 European Journal of Engineering Research and Science  
This research applies Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) model to estimate acceptable duration for execution of each activity having random variable of time and some probability distribution  ...  The PERT was applied for the data analysis, to construct the PERT scheme for the dredging operations.  ...  Services Ltd and Machineering Dredging Solutions Limited who gave the consultancy of putting their project into research back-up to enable them proffer best methods of operating to strike profit in an  ... 
doi:10.24018/ejers.2019.4.3.1115 fatcat:l75tlq6cwzdmzfgzb3cb5joluy

Triangular approximations for continuous random variables in risk analysis

D Johnson
2002 Journal of the Operational Research Society  
Estimating the mean and variance for c> 3 and a8 c—> 3 from above. 0 approaches its eo distributions in PERT and decision analysis.  ...  For example, if the underlying distribu- tion is a positively skewed beta, Keefer and Verdini'* have shown that the average absolute errors in estimating the mean and variance using the basic PERT formulae  ... 
doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601330 fatcat:vy7nxcfuujblpltvan4fvqaxrq

Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation Based on Uncertainty of Linkage between Activities

Seon-Gyoo Kim, Junyoung Kim
2020 Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture  
The Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) that is considered to be one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration cannot consider the uncertainties  ...  The purpose of this study is to propose the new method, the Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique (PLET), for probabilistically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation  ...  Therefore, the formula for estimating the elapsed days in the PLET can be directly applied to the equation of the PERT.  ... 
doi:10.17265/1934-7359/2020.04.005 fatcat:ybhc4vb4djhh5fjjvd62dilxye

Schedule and Cost Buffer Sizing: How to Account for the Bias between Project Performance and Your Model

Larry Leach
2003 Project Management Journal  
Statistical pooling of variance does not account for sources of bias in the estimates; i.e., systematic reasons that the estimates may be high or low.  ...  The PMBOK® Guide and supporting literature recommend estimating the variability for all project time and cost estimates, and sizing appropriate schedule or cost buffers (also known as contingency or management  ...  When using PERT, Monte Carlo, and CCPM, you should use the mean duration and cost estimates as the baseline task estimate.  ... 
doi:10.1177/875697280303400205 fatcat:ou6bwl6ewffhpnyrs2c2cjmiea

Comparative Study of Pipeline Deliverables using Deterministic and Stochastic Models

Ernest Oria Ihendeson, Awajiogak A Ujile, Anthony K. Leol
2019 European Journal of Engineering Research and Science  
Program Evaluation Review Techniques (PERT), the variance and standard deviation of the critical activities were also calculated.  ...  The probability of completion of a project within a given period was gotten with PERT. Comparing the results for deterministic duration 60 days to 79 days, which is 50% compared to 64%.  ...  Calculating The Expected Mean Time, Variance And Standard DeviationUsing the mathematical formulae below and data from Appendix G, H, I. J, K. L, M and N.  ... 
doi:10.24018/ejers.2019.4.1.1097 fatcat:3vowbdqnjfayzjztgynqnd5p6u

Comparison of Project Scheduling techniques: PERT versus Monte Carlo simulation

Pooja Deshmukh, Neela Rajhans
2018 Industrial Engineering Journal  
In this research study PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) is applied on a project to evaluate the probability of project completion.  ...  In any project the constraints of schedule, budget, scope and quality which form the basis of the project management triangle can be fulfilled by implementing project management planning tools & techniques  ...  The 3 estimate activity durations along with predecessor activities and activities mean and variance are mentioned in table 1.  ... 
doi:10.26488/iej.11.7.1134 fatcat:cvjjvqx3s5gftlix4s5vbym2te

M-PERT: Manual Project-Duration Estimation Technique for Teaching Scheduling Basics

Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez
2017 Journal of construction engineering and management  
6 The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) has become a classic Project 7 Management tool for estimating project duration when the activities have uncertain durations. 8 However, despite its  ...  This 12 paper proposes joining the most relevant of those to create a new reformulated PERT, named 13 M-PERT. 14 M-PERT is quite accurate when estimating real project duration, while also allowing for  ...  currently have average errors below 2% for the mean and 382 below 10% for the variance.  ... 
doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001358 fatcat:cgofsphh3re4jdrimw44v4jnoa

Minimizing the Pessimistic Time of Activity in Overhaul Project

2019 Tehnički Vjesnik  
The objective of this paper is to analyse some concepts of the project management techniques and the proposed mathematical model for estimating the project completion probability after crashing of PERT  ...  PERT FOR PROJECT COMPLETION PROBABILITY PERT is a management technique to estimate the probability that a project will finish on time.  ...  variance for each activity.  ... 
doi:10.17559/tv-20180410114808 fatcat:bovvagb2infm5fe5ey6dbewicm

Page 45 of The Journal of Industrial Engineering Vol. 17, Issue 1 [page]

1966 The Journal of Industrial Engineering  
The basic PERT formulae for estimating the mean and vari- ance have long been known as approximate.  ...  Analyses of variance were conducted to deter- mine the effects of temperature, etchant concentration, and sodium aluminate concentration on the etch rate, and to determine if the initial surface finishes  ... 

A STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS APPROACH ON THE COST-TIME PROFILE FOR SELECTING THE BEST FUTURE STATE MA

Seyed Mohammad Seyedhosseini, Ahmad Ebrahimi-Taleghani
2015 South African Journal of Industrial Engineering  
Two factors that are of particular importance for the customer and the manufacturer -the TPLT and the direct cost of the product -are reviewed and analysed by calculating the subarea of the CTP curve,  ...  Based on a proposed step-by-step stochastic analysis method, and also by using non-parametric Kernel estimation methods for estimating the probability density function of CTIs, the process of choosing  ...  So beta distribution with experimental mean and variance is used extensively in PERT.  ... 
doi:10.7166/26-1-644 fatcat:3htnbn32fzcyjg5sdjqajqztpi

CPM, PERT and Project Management with Fuzzy Logic Technique and Implementation on a Business

Mete Mazlum, Ali Fuat Güneri
2015 Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences  
With certain activity times, classic CPM and PERT optimization and with using triangular fuzzy numbers for fuzzy data, CPM and PERT optimization are analyzed.  ...  In this study, classic PERT and CPM, which are project management techniques, fuzzy PERT and fuzzy CPM, which are used in the fuzzy project management, will be used to improve an online internet branch  ...  Using time estimates for activities WinQSB program analyzed and activity results were obtained.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.378 fatcat:ydlxyz6gcjck3pczi2zuggbfn4

Propagation of Cross-Section Uncertainties in Criticality Calculations in the Framework of UAM-Phase I Using MCNPX-2.7e and SCALE-6.1

C. J. Díez, J. J. Herrero, O. Cabellos, J. S. Martínez
2013 Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations  
At UPM, our research group treats these exercises with sensitivity calculations and the "sandwich formula" to propagate cross-section uncertainties.  ...  In the framework of the OECD/NEA project on Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) for Design, Operation, and Safety Analysis of LWRs, several approaches and codes are being used to deal  ...  safety. " Also, this work is also partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education of Spain through the FPU Program for teaching and researching formation under Grant AP2009-1801 for the first  ... 
doi:10.1155/2013/380284 fatcat:t4hrupytqnabfikww6e23gxawy
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