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How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19? [article]

Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Jan Markus Brauner, Gavin Leech, Anna B. Stephenson, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Jan Kulveit, Yee Whye Teh, Leonid Chindelevitch, Yarin Gal
2020 arXiv   pre-print
To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make?  ...  We further evaluate how robust estimates are to different choices of epidemiological parameters and data.  ...  Acknowledgments We thank Laurence Aitchison for helpful comments leading to the Additive Effect Model. We thank Tom Rainforth, Eric Nalisnick and Andreas Kirsch for comments on the manuscript.  ... 
arXiv:2007.13454v3 fatcat:smldmcbivjbw7fyjkjbrm76j7q

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

Jan M Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Anna B Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad (+7 others)
2020 Science  
Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood.  ...  We estimate the effectiveness of NPIs, ranging from limiting gathering sizes, business closures, and closure of educational institutions to stay-at-home orders.  ...  CONCLUSION: We estimated the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 41 countries during the first wave of the pandemic.  ... 
doi:10.1126/science.abd9338 pmid:33323424 pmcid:PMC7877495 fatcat:p7sw6r4egze57fk2oz6qwpuuou

Mask-Wearing During the COVID-19 Pandemic [article]

Ashwin Aravindakshan, Jörn Boehnke, Ehsan Gholami, Ashutosh Nayak
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
These estimates remain robust across multiple sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Face mask usage as a preventative measure against the transmission of COVID-19 varies widely across countries.  ...  In summary, due to the confounding variables and the variations in the type of mask and its usage, randomized control trials of mask usage in populations are needed to determine the true effect of mask  ...  The model estimates remain robust to this change. (4) We vary the functional form of how mask-wearing relates to the growth of COVID-19.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.09.11.20192971 fatcat:2dmzwp4vrjfg5pmloebin2r5ga

The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures ‐ A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach [article]

Reinhold Kosfeld, Timo Mitze, Johannes Rode, Klaus Waelde
2020 biorxiv/medrxiv   pre-print
Since mid-March 2020 the Federal and state governments in Germany agreed on comprehensive public health measures to contain the spread of Covid-19.  ...  No incremental effect is evidenced for closure of establishments and shutdown of shopping malls and other stores. These findings prove to be highly robust to changes in model specification.  ...  | LITERATURE REVIEW This section reviews the available prior evidence on the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to suppress the spread of Covid-19 in Germany.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.12.15.20248173 fatcat:jmkfosn2cbadpexuoml56c2aje

COVID-19 and Postinfection Immunity

Robert D. Kirkcaldy, Brian A. King, John T. Brooks
2020 Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)  
In the absence of effective treatment or biomedical prevention, efforts to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have relied on nonpharmaceutical interventions such as personal preventive  ...  In addition to these public health interventions, development of herd immunity could also provide a defense against COVID-19.  ... 
doi:10.1001/jama.2020.7869 pmid:32391855 pmcid:PMC8596300 fatcat:apcwj4g4ljhbveohps52yu72d4

A control approach to the Covid-19 disease using a SEIHRD dynamical model [article]

Fernando A. Pazos, Flavia Felicioni
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as greatly affects the economy.  ...  The recent worldwide epidemic of Covid-19 disease, for which there is no vaccine or medications to prevent or cure it, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most  ...  Of course, recovered people are no longer able to transmit the virus. • u ∈ [0, 1] is the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions (NPIs). u = 0 means no intervention and the epidemic  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.05.27.20115295 fatcat:x5my4h6sffgprghrjhrs7uirfa

Effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19; a protocol of a systematic review and realist review

Shabnam Iezadi, Saber Azami-Aghdash, Akbar Ghiasi, Aziz Rezapour, Hamid Pourasghari, Fariba Pashazadeh, Kamal Gholipour, Wen-Jun Tu
2020 PLoS ONE  
However, there is neither systematic evidence on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical PHIs in controlling the COVID-19 nor on how these interventions work in different contexts.  ...  Therefore, in this study we will address two main objectives: 1) to assess the effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical PHIs in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a systematic review and meta-analyses  ...  However, there is neither systematic evidence on the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical PHIs in controlling the COVID-19 nor on how these interventions work in different contexts.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0239554 pmid:32991604 pmcid:PMC7523985 fatcat:gncmmpazejg2xi4ty52poveasa

Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from U.S. states [article]

Xiao Chen, Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, Ruoyan Sun, Jialiang Zhang
2021 medRxiv   pre-print
In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S.  ...  Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.  ...  Funding: H.H. is supported by the startup grant from the City University of Hong Kong (grant no. 7200689).  ... 
doi:10.1101/2021.05.08.21256892 fatcat:r2u2qcri6bcqdhbyl355vxrgh4

Lockdown Responses to COVID-19

Violeta A. Gutkowski
2021 Review  
How did countries between these two extremes respond to COVID-19?  ...  Finally, countries more vulnerable to contagion were faster at implementing effective containment measures against COVID-19, while countries with populations more vulnerable to death from COVID-19 due  ... 
doi:10.20955/r.103.127-51 fatcat:tztnskbmivewdd4zj5px5ybzh4

COVID-19 vaccinations are associated with reduced fatality rates: Evidence from cross-county quasi-experiments

Li-Lin Liang, Hsu-Sung Kuo, Hsiu J Ho, Chun-Ying Wu
2021 Journal of Global Health  
A country-level random effects model was used; a comprehensive set of variables for country characteristics and nonpharmaceutical interventions were included.  ...  However, the extent to which reductions in COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR) are attributable to mass vaccination in the real world remains unclear.  ...  The authors are grateful to researchers who compiled the data and made them publicly available. The authors also thank deeply two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.  ... 
doi:10.7189/jogh.11.05019 fatcat:rnpdq7uirbd35bpdj62th6weta

Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates

Cory Merow, Mark C. Urban
2020 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide and threatens millions of lives.  ...  However, uncertainty remains high, and the probability of weekly doubling rates remains >20% throughout summer in the absence of social interventions.  ...  We thank the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University for providing publicly available COVID-19 data.  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.2008590117 pmid:33051302 fatcat:jg34mar66bguvnzsx5mdlaj63m

Living with COVID-19: The road ahead

Wycliffe Enli Wei, Wei Keat Tan, Alex Richard Cook, Li Yang Hsu, Yik Ying Teo, Vernon Jian Ming Lee
2021 Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore  
Response measures employed to control it have generally been effective but are unlikely to be sustainable over the long term.  ...  Keywords: COVID-19, endemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, transition, vaccination  ...  In the initial pandemic response, without the availability of effective therapies or vaccines, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formed the main measures against the virus.  ... 
doi:10.47102/annals-acadmedsg.2021244 fatcat:czu7ycp7ujfwldroyksbtg7s3y

Spatial Allocation of Scarce Vaccine and Antivirals for COVID-19 [article]

François M. Castonguay, Julie C. Blackwood, Emily Howerton, Katriona M. Shea, Charles Sims, James N. Sanchirico
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
Although the COVID-19 disease burden is heterogeneous across space, the U.S.  ...  Interestingly, a lack of compliance to travel restrictions pushes the optimal allocations of vaccine towards the ad hoc and improves the relative robustness of the ad hoc rules, as the mixing of the populations  ...  [4] and estimates of effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions from Tian et al.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.12.18.20248439 fatcat:nnbbaitjdzbpnl4dgibyvm5nbm

COVID-19 – Lessons Learned and Questions Remaining

Ferric C Fang, Constance A Benson, Carlos del Rio, Kathryn M Edwards, Vance G Fowler, Jr., David N Fredricks, Ajit P Limaye, Barbara E Murray, Susanna Naggie, Peter G Pappas, Robin Patel, David L Paterson (+3 others)
2020 Clinical Infectious Diseases  
SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify essential questions about COVID-19 that remain to be answered.  ...  In this article, the editors of Clinical Infectious Diseases review some of the most important lessons they have learned about the epidemiology, clinical features, diagnosis, treatment and prevention of  ...  As noted above, the COVID-19 pandemic has already led to advances in how clinical trials are conducted.  ... 
doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa1654 pmid:33104186 pmcid:PMC7797746 fatcat:2e4etpzxbjb6jlbcvddqpsjqpq

Explaining the homogeneous diffusion of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions across heterogeneous countries

Abiel Sebhatu, Karl Wennberg, Stefan Arora-Jonsson, Staffan I. Lindberg
2020 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
We analyze the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries during the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19  ...  We provide insights for research on international policy diffusion and research on the political consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.  ...  We are grateful for comments from E-seminar participants at the Ratio Institute, Aalto University,  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.2010625117 pmid:32788356 fatcat:u2fjljv57zf3ha6wbwb7ap57ja
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