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Hindsight and Sequential Rationality of Correlated Play [article]

Dustin Morrill, Ryan D'Orazio, Reca Sarfati, Marc Lanctot, James R. Wright, Amy Greenwald, Michael Bowling
2022 arXiv   pre-print
Examining CFR in greater detail further leads to a new recursive definition of rationality in correlated play that extends sequential rationality in a way that naturally applies to hindsight evaluation  ...  We develop and advocate for this hindsight rationality framing of learning in general sequential decision-making settings.  ...  We advocate for a hindsight rationality framing of learning in sequential decision-making settings where rational correlated play, rather than factored equilibrium behavior, arises naturally through repeated  ... 
arXiv:2012.05874v7 fatcat:olatkpldqvg35mhjt6blnwitga

Hindsight and Sequential Rationality of Correlated Play [article]

Dustin Morrill, Ryan D'Orazio, Reca Sarfati, Marc Lanctot, James R. Wright, Amy Greenwald, Michael Bowling
2020
Examining CFR in greater detail further leads to a new recursive definition of rationality in correlated play that extends sequential rationality in a way that naturally applies to hindsight evaluation  ...  We develop and advocate for this hindsight rationality framing of learning in general sequential decision-making settings.  ...  Observable sequential rationality is a new extension of sequential rationality to correlated play in a way that naturally applies to hindsight evaluation.  ... 
doi:10.48550/arxiv.2012.05874 fatcat:aqkibyssr5fpzn7eifbtmjhyzy

Efficient Deviation Types and Learning for Hindsight Rationality in Extensive-Form Games [article]

Dustin Morrill, Ryan D'Orazio, Marc Lanctot, James R. Wright, Michael Bowling, Amy Greenwald
2022 arXiv   pre-print
Hindsight rationality is an approach to playing general-sum games that prescribes no-regret learning dynamics for individual agents with respect to a set of deviations, and further describes jointly rational  ...  To develop hindsight rational learning in sequential decision-making settings, we formalize behavioral deviations as a general class of deviations that respect the structure of extensive-form games.  ...  Thanks to Ian Gemp, Gabriele Farina, and anonymous reviewers for constructive comments and suggestions.  ... 
arXiv:2102.06973v7 fatcat:6qxd5f6r35axfgcif7afticqdy

Efficient Deviation Types and Learning for Hindsight Rationality in Extensive-Form Games: Corrections [article]

Dustin Morrill, Ryan D'Orazio, Marc Lanctot, James R. Wright, Michael Bowling, Amy R. Greenwald
2022 arXiv   pre-print
Hindsight rationality is an approach to playing general-sum games that prescribes no-regret learning dynamics for individual agents with respect to a set of deviations, and further describes jointly rational  ...  To develop hindsight rational learning in sequential decision-making settings, we formalize behavioral deviations as a general class of deviations that respect the structure of extensive-form games.  ...  Acknowledgements Computation provided by WestGrid and Compute Canada. Dustin Morrill, Michael Bowling, and James Wright are supported by the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute (Amii) and NSERC.  ... 
arXiv:2205.12031v2 fatcat:o6js7bf4brb2dpaoz4aoicq2si

Distributed No-Regret Learning in Multi-Agent Systems [article]

Xiao Xu, Qing Zhao
2020 arXiv   pre-print
For each of the four characteristics, we illuminate its implications and ramifications in game modeling, notions of regret, feasible game outcomes, and the design and analysis of distributed learning algorithms  ...  Four emerging game characteristics---dynamicity, incomplete and imperfect feedback, bounded rationality, and heterogeneity---that challenge canonical game models are explored.  ...  , availability of complete and perfect feedback, full rationality of players with unbounded cognition and computation capacity, and homogeneity among players in making rationality, access to and usage  ... 
arXiv:2002.09047v1 fatcat:igu7xdfmyzh3ddjz4li3xcmb6m

Exact Replication of the Best Rebalancing Rule in Hindsight [article]

Alex Garivaltis
2019 arXiv   pre-print
By contrast, I also study the more natural case of the best levered rebalancing rule in hindsight.  ...  This fact holds for the general market with n correlated stocks in geometric Brownian motion: we get C(S,t)=(T/t)^n/2(rt+b'Σ b· t/2), where Σ is the covariance of instantaneous returns per unit time.  ...  Acknowledgment I thank Erik Ordentlich and Thomas Cover for their timeless paper, The Cost of Achieving the Best Portfolio in Hindsight, which I found uplifting to the spirit.  ... 
arXiv:1810.02485v2 fatcat:fpjvfxdoxzfrlknuarsxhxpgoi

Measuring Individual Differences in Decision Biases: Methodological Considerations

Balazs Aczel, Bence Bago, Aba Szollosi, Andrei Foldes, Bence Lukacs
2015 Frontiers in Psychology  
The analysis of the responses (N = 1279) showed weak internal consistency within the surveys and a great level of discrepancy between the extracted patterns of the underlying factors.  ...  These results emphasize the need to understand the domain-specificity of cognitive biases as well as the effect of the wording of the cover story and the response mode on bias susceptibility before employing  ...  This research was supported by the European Union and the State of Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP 4.2.4.  ... 
doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01770 pmid:26635677 pmcid:PMC4652008 fatcat:soya43bscnaszixdeewn5k5mqy

The Psychology of Intellectual Property [chapter]

Gregory N. Mandel
2021 Handbook of Intellectual Property Research  
The chapter explores these approaches through a survey of research on three broad areas where human psychology plays an outsized role in intellectual property systems: heuristics and biases in intellectual  ...  In particular, this is a field where human subjects research on the design and implementation of intellectual property systems can be of great value.  ...  innovation is sequential: People build upon the inventions and achievements of those who came before them.  ... 
doi:10.1093/oso/9780198826743.003.0036 fatcat:u4isvbfwq5hy5mshs3px4hoepe

A theory integration program

Gerd Gigerenzer
2017 Decision  
The first step is integration of phenomena, that is, the study of how apparently disparate robust observations are theoretically connected, not just empirically correlated.  ...  Popper's program of competitive testing and the development of unified theories are 2 common routes toward this end.  ...  Instead, the violations are the product of sequential search through cues and a stopping rule, a search process similar to fast-and-frugal trees (Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, & Hertwig, 2006) .  ... 
doi:10.1037/dec0000082 fatcat:azbyojgfnzbergbcylsc7upnii

A NOTE ON THE EQUIVALENCE OF RATIONALIZABILITY CONCEPTS IN GENERALIZED NICE GAMES

ALEXANDER ZIMPER
2006 International Game Theory Review  
For example, only single-valued best responses are admitted and the individual strategy sets have to be convex and compact subsets of the real line R.  ...  The surprising ...nding is that equivalence does not hold for individual strategy sets that are compact and convex subsets of R n with n¸2.  ...  The Hindsight Bias in Situations of High and Low Self Esteem Relevance Nr.  ... 
doi:10.1142/s021919890600117x fatcat:2dreqqk7orbgtnqb2xc6jlgnfi

Evolutionary Cognitive Psychology [chapter]

Peter M. Todd, Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage
2015 The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology  
-surely relied on gathering and processing information, meeting the challenges of each of these domains would only have been possible by in each case gathering specific pieces of information and processing  ...  All of these capacities, the core topics of cognitive psychology, can be seen as epiphenomena arising over the course of evolution from the need to get the central jobs done: survival and reproduction.  ...  Acknowledgments We are grateful to Gary Brase and Lael Schooler for helpful comments on this chapter. Evolutionary Cognitive Psychology24  ... 
doi:10.1002/9780470939376.ch27 fatcat:6vpasryorrdsxf3ohdwc7yvfvq

"I Was Well-Calibrated All Along": Assessing Accuracy in Retrospect [chapter]

2007 Judgment and Decision Making  
Judgment and decision making: neo-Brunswikian and process-tracing approaches/edited by Peter Juslin, Henry Montgomery. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and indexes.  ...  The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. In K.I. Manktelow & D.E.Over (Eds.), Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 129-161). P. (1993).  ...  In this search, decision rules play a subordinate role.  ... 
doi:10.4324/9781410617675-12 fatcat:dp7d4gys4vazpg666ui3t4lhku

Introduction to Experimental Game Theory

Vincent P. Crawford
2002 Journal of Economic Theory  
provide complementary surveys of the experimental literature, and Plott [30] , Smith [42, 43] , and Roth [34, 35] discuss its methodology.With hindsight, the emergence of experimental game theory can  ...  [25] replicate Sefton and Yavas' results for the simultaneous version of the mechanism, using a slightly different design, and then compare the performance of the simultaneous and sequential versions  ... 
doi:10.1006/jeth.2001.2909 fatcat:qevagdt2pfdxxeox4pmn537z6y

Limits and limitations of no-regret learning in games

Barnabé Monnot, Georgios Piliouras
2017 Knowledge engineering review (Print)  
We also establish a strong equivalence between them and coarse correlated equilibria (CCE).  ...  We study the limit behavior and performance of no-regret dynamics in general game theoretic settings. We design protocols that achieve both good regret and equilibration guarantees in general games.  ...  P. would like to acknowledge SUTD grant SRG ESD 2015 097 and MOE AcRF Tier 2 Grant 2016-T2-1-170.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s0269888917000133 fatcat:5xryxizp55h2riaizxitfto4ae

Trust Your Instincts: The Relationship Between Intuitive Decision Making And Happiness

2016 European Scientific Journal  
rational thinkers; and that when both rational and intuitive thinkers experienced decisional fit, higher ratings of happiness were reported.  ...  It has not yet been determined whether decisional fit correlates with greater happiness and hence, the purpose of the current study was to investigate the difference between styles of thinking, styles  ...  There was a significant positive correlation between intuitive thinking and intuitive decision style and a negative correlation between rational thinking and intuitive decision style.  ... 
doi:10.19044/esj.2016.v12n11p463 fatcat:gtzm3k7n75fhbnefadvqwqcduu
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