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Distorting the Process of Scientific Inquiry
2012
BioScience
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Unlike statistical hypotheses, which usually consist of two alternatives (random or not), there is no limit to the number of research hypotheses that a person might generate to explain a pattern. ...
"predictions" that do not emerge from a research hypothesis or by testing "hypotheses" that were not erected to explain something and still call that "science." ...
doi:10.1525/bio.2012.62.8.3
fatcat:h6yqnpaimzh63mla6ctt6hjeui
Spandrels and a pervasive problem of evidence
2008
Biology & Philosophy
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These limitations create the problem of contrast failure: specific observations may fail to discriminate between rival evolutionary hypotheses. ...
I will not focus on the standard issues of adaptationism, and instead turn to the general morals we can draw for testing any evolutionary hypothesis. ...
Thanks also to Bill Wimsatt for pointing me towards Wright's discussion of the M. scurra case. ...
doi:10.1007/s10539-008-9144-8
fatcat:dzfogjt3cjdzziyl5thoaisheq
Heuristics for Inductive Learning
1985
International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
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A number of heuristics have been developed which greatly reduce the search space a learning program must consider in its attempt to construct hypotheses about why a failure occurred. ...
The resulting learning system, by integrating causal knowledge with heuristic search, has quickly gone from essentially random predictive accuracy to a system which consistently outperforms the experts ...
Thanks also to Eduard Hovy and Larry Birnbaum for incisive and enlightening comments on a draft of this paper. At APEX, thanks to Jim Stansfield for additional comments and suggestions. ...
dblp:conf/ijcai/Salzberg85
fatcat:g3ktlrp7cbarblvohmkcwc6awe
Committed to the insurance hypothesis of obesity
2017
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
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Can ideas about the regulation of body mass in birds be used to explain the breakdown of regulation associated with obesity and anorexia in humans? There is no evidence to think so. ...
Medicine can always benefit from the application of evolutionary ecology ideas, but we must be prepared to dismiss these ideas when they just do not fit the data. ...
Hence, the IH's most general prediction is that obesity today should be low compared to our ancestral conditions. This general prediction is not even mentioned, but it is clearly unsupported. ...
doi:10.1017/s0140525x16001461
pmid:29342584
fatcat:5qhybt5b6nbc3ocaofymt7vgdu
Systematic Error Analysis of the Stanford Question Answering Dataset
2018
Proceedings of the Workshop on Machine Reading for Question Answering
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A classifier was then constructed to predict whether SQuAD test examples were likely to be difficult for systems to answer based on features associated with the hypothesized aspects. ...
Through an iterative process, challenging aspects were hypothesized through qualitative analysis of the common error cases. ...
Acknowledgements We would like to thank Eric Lin, Peter Potash, Yadollah Yaghoobzadeh, and Kaheer Suleman for their feedback and helpful comments. ...
doi:10.18653/v1/w18-2602
dblp:conf/acl/RondeauH18
fatcat:gyuubaibwzaurnmb5wgdfqamxy
The Anti-induction for Scientific Realism
2018
Grazer Philosophische Studien
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I provide an example from the history of science to show that antiinductions sometimes work in science. ...
If it is a hasty generalization to infer that there are infinitely many unperformed experimental failures on the basis of the five experimental failures, so is it a hasty generalization to infer that there ...
Also, scientists should keep entertaining and testing further hypotheses, despite repeated failures, not with a view to finding true hypotheses, but with a view to finding successful hypotheses. ...
doi:10.1163/18756735-000044
fatcat:dzuapmylzbdflhlzyp3ls5izhy
Detecting deception: adversarial problem solving in a low base-rate world
2001
Cognitive Science
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We explain failure to detect deception by means of perturbations (bugs) in the domain knowledge of accounting needed to apply these heuristics to the specific context of financial statement fraud. ...
Since the detection of frauds occurs infrequently in the work of a given auditor, we explain success by the application of powerful heuristics gained from experience with deceptions in everyday life. ...
The model based its prediction on the fact that S16 failed to correctly evaluate the materiality of the (wrong) hypotheses generated to explain the cues in the case (Error C in Table 5 ). ...
doi:10.1016/s0364-0213(01)00040-4
fatcat:itrh4xk2lfdi3pjux2bqrhvxaa
Detecting deception: adversarial problem solving in a low base-rate world
2001
Cognitive Science
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We explain failure to detect deception by means of perturbations (bugs) in the domain knowledge of accounting needed to apply these heuristics to the specific context of financial statement fraud. ...
Since the detection of frauds occurs infrequently in the work of a given auditor, we explain success by the application of powerful heuristics gained from experience with deceptions in everyday life. ...
The model based its prediction on the fact that S16 failed to correctly evaluate the materiality of the (wrong) hypotheses generated to explain the cues in the case (Error C in Table 5 ). ...
doi:10.1207/s15516709cog2503_2
fatcat:qkxyxtk2rrambh3fgewm4zshke
Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?
[chapter]
1999
Seismicity Patterns, their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning
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First, we discuss the failures of direct earthquake forecasts and the poor quantitative predictive power of theoretical and computer simulation methods in explaining earthquakes. ...
These procedures should use methods designed in physics and other sciences to formulate hypotheses and carry out objective validation. ...
Below, we discuss a broader definition of prediction, summarize the failure of present research methods, and attempt to explain their causes. ...
doi:10.1007/978-3-0348-8677-2_3
fatcat:ldyphptsgbfpbgwlyxc6csor7u
Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?
1999
Pure and Applied Geophysics
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First, we discuss the failures of direct earthquake forecasts and the poor quantitative predictive power of theoretical and computer simulation methods in explaining earthquakes. ...
These procedures should use methods designed in physics and other sciences to formulate hypotheses and carry out objective validation. ...
Below, we discuss a broader definition of prediction, summarize the failure of present research methods, and attempt to explain their causes. ...
doi:10.1007/s000240050264
fatcat:hufoiefnrvecllz32f6kvr2qxq
Economic Rationality and Explaining Human Behavior: An Adaptationist Program?
2008
International Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences
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Attempts to explain human behavior that appeal to economic rationality share many of the same ontological assumptions and methodological practices that the so-called 'adaptationist program' in biology ...
These similarities extend to some macroeconomics researchers recent suggestions of ways that hypotheses regarding the causes of people's actions might be tested; as yet, however, these suggestions have ...
The reason for this is clear: the failure of a model of behavior to be adequately predictive (in arenas in which the model implies that it ought to be adequately predictive) is good evidence that the model ...
doi:10.18848/1833-1882/cgp/v03i07/52657
fatcat:lgpwgltdjbc73mcdqfgr462ubm
Page 371 of Austral Ecology Vol. 15, Issue 4
[page]
1990
Austral Ecology
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Alternatively, the model could be expanded to include explanations of other species that have not yet had their distribu- tions explained (competition explains Species X; therefore I propose the more general ...
to refine it by making it more general and broadly compelling (i.e. by making it capable of predicting processes and patterns at a larger or more widespread scale). ...
How to Make and Sell a Meaningful Empirical Contribution
2017
Cornell Hospitality Quarterly
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To help future authors make that case more successfully, I will use this essay to share my definition of a meaningful empirical contribution and to provide suggestions about how to make and sell such contributions ...
Excerpt] The main reason empirical submissions to Cornell Hospitality Quarterly (CQ) are rejected is that the authors failed to adequately answer the "so what?" question. ...
and (if desired) to lay out formal hypotheses. ...
doi:10.1177/1938965516680755
fatcat:oqfi65ery5f23kl4q3n6idagqq
Learning in order to avoid search in logic programming
1990
Computers and Mathematics with Applications
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by comparing the predictions of a qualitative simulation to observe data. ...
The diagnostic expert system is an example of a generate-and-test problem solver. ...
In effect, what occurs is that much of the search is moved from the testing to the generation of hypotheses. ...
doi:10.1016/0898-1221(90)90115-z
fatcat:icdngtvfmfcejfqy3cy26mb5rq
Quantitative analysis of faults and failures in a complex software system
2000
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
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We tested a range of basic software engineering hypotheses relating to: The Pareto principle of distribution of faults and failures; the use of early fault data to predict later fault and failure data; ...
However, in neither case is this explained by the size or complexity of the modules. ...
We are indebted to Martin Neil for his valuable input to this work and to Pierre-Jacques Courtois, Karama Kanoun, Jean-Claude Laprie, and Stuart Mitchell for their review comments. ...
doi:10.1109/32.879815
fatcat:i3k2pn4akjhxhcmrxbmuup7xka
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