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Tourism Traffic Demand Prediction Using Google Trends Based on EEMD-DBN

Yi Xiao, Xueting Tian, John J. Liu, Gaohui Cao, Qingxing Dong
2020 Engineering  
This model firstly applied dislocation weighted synthesis method to combine Google trends into a search composite index, and then it denoised the series with EEMD.  ...  The conclusion demonstrated that the forecast error of EEMD-DBN model is lower remarkably than the baselines of ARIMA, GM(1,1), FTS, SVM, CES and DBN model.  ...  CCNU19ZN024 and the Humanities and Social Sciences Layout Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China under Grant No. 20YJA740047.  ... 
doi:10.4236/eng.2020.123016 fatcat:x6ayhwzsvvc4tnitbi75hhxsz4

Forecasting of Visitors Arrived in Taiwan for Tourism Supply Chain Demand using Big Data

Yi-Hui Liang
2021 WSEAS Transactions on Computer Research  
Accord-ingly, this work presents the ARIMAX model for modelling and forecasting numbers of international tourists visiting Taiwan from Japan for different pur-poses and provides an analysis of the effects  ...  Google Trends on Google search engine can evaluate and compare how many times users are searching for specific terms or topics.  ...  Acknowledgements Thanks to the support of I-Shou University (ISU), Taiwan R.O.C. no. ISU-106-IUC-06.  ... 
doi:10.37394/232018.2021.9.10 fatcat:64z6uayztrb57hflap6jbvyyra

Geo-Tagged Photo Metadata Processing Method for Beijing Inbound Tourism Flow

Chen, Xu, Zheng, Luo
2019 ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information  
These methods can effectively filter out inbound tourist flow data from geotag photo metadata, thus providing a novel, reliable, and low-cost research data source for urban inbound tourism flow forecasting  ...  Wherein, the entropy filtering method was introduced to aid in determining whether the data were posted by inbound tourists; whether the inbound persons' activities were related to tourism was judged through  ...  Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge all of reviewers and editors. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.  ... 
doi:10.3390/ijgi8120556 fatcat:ac6cujbpgngn3g7vo6iknrn27a

A Daily Tourism Demand Prediction Framework Based on Multi-head Attention CNN: The Case of The Foreign Entrant in South Korea [article]

Dong-Keon Kim, Sung Kuk Shyn, Donghee Kim, Seungwoo Jang, Kwangsu Kim
2021 arXiv   pre-print
We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture.  ...  The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.  ...  Then, the proposed MHAC model predicts the tourist trend by reflecting the considered variables and the historical tourist trend data as inputs.  ... 
arXiv:2112.00328v1 fatcat:4echqpyf6zgyxkk5viw57c65se

A New Decomposition Ensemble Approach for Tourism Demand Forecasting: Evidence from Major Source Countries [article]

Chengyuan Zhang and Fuxin Jiang and Shouyang Wang and Shaolong Sun
2020 arXiv   pre-print
learning and deep learning model, in terms of the level forecasting accuracy and directional forecasting accuracy.  ...  This study carefully explores the multi-scale relationship between tourist destinations and the major source countries, by decomposing the corresponding monthly tourist arrivals with noise-assisted multivariate  ...  EMD Tourist arrivals; Baidu Index Li & Law (2019) Hong Kong Inbound demand Monthly EEMD Tourist arrivals; Google Trends Lin et al. (2018) Mainland China Tourism demand Daily EMD Tourist  ... 
arXiv:2002.09201v1 fatcat:yzdw2xwmffh3xdvuzbvo2hknce


Ebrucan İSLAMOĞLU, Nuri Özgür DOĞAN
2020 Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute  
This paper deals with forecasting international tourism demand, specifically focusing on the Spanish tourist visits in Cappadocia region of Turkey.  ...  In accordance with this aim, eight forecasting models are used. The results of the analyses for each model are obtained and the forecasting accuracy examined.  ...  In accordance with this situation the number of inbound Spanish tourists to Nevşehir decreased between the years of 2008 and 2012.  ... 
doi:10.30794/pausbed.679682 fatcat:klono4n2sfaqdmrjt6bg4fqltm

The Role of Internet Search Index for Tourist Volume Prediction Based on GDFM Model

2020 Tehnički Vjesnik  
Tourist volume is increasing with the expansion of the scale of tourism, and improving the prediction of tourist volume is helpful for tourism managers to make decisions.  ...  The results show that the prediction accuracy is improved in our method, and the prediction accuracy of tourist volume is improved by over 10%, with an average error of only 4.3% when compared with the  ...  The total number of tourists was subtracted to the number of inbound tourists in order to exclude the influence of the inbound tourist volume.  ... 
doi:10.17559/tv-20191231071057 fatcat:jp7xlt6bjvcrdl5kk527fllfdi

The Macroeconomic Determinants of International Casino Travel: Evidence from South Korea's Top Four Inbound Markets

Hyunduk Suh, Sung-Bum Kim
2018 Sustainability  
Implications and suggestions for future studies are provided along with the results of this study.  ...  Using monthly data from 2006 to 2016, we utilized a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the dynamic effects of macroeconomic factors on the number of casino visitors.  ...  Google Trends and define a dummy variable that is scored 1 when the z-score of the index exceeds 1.  ... 
doi:10.3390/su10020554 fatcat:xnqys7zql5avtmsx57z5szvkzm

Pent-up demand effect at the tourist market

Iuliia Kostynets, Valeriia Kostynets, Vitalii Baranov
2020 Economics & Sociology  
The authors analyzed the English-language and Russian-language queries "Tours to Italy" and "Journey to Paris" using the Google Trends data and determined the dynamics of search queries over the past five  ...  The correlation analysis has confirmed that the popularity of searches from potential consumers is closely correlated with the volume of real demand for tourist services.  ...  Trends of English-language and Russian-language requests for "Tours to Italy" according to Google Trends Source: own data The results shown in this figure show a clear seasonality in the inquiries of potential  ... 
doi:10.14254/2071-789x.2020/13-2/18 fatcat:3cxtz6tlvzb4texrmirstsvoym

Research on the forecast of tourism reception consumption trend – Taking Shandong Province as an example

Diao Yanhua, K.H.M. Mansur, Y. Fu
2021 E3S Web of Conferences  
Based on the data of 2019 large-scale sample survey of domestic tourists and related economic data, this paper analyses the future per capita domestic tourism expenditure of 16 cities in Shandong Province  ...  It is found that the unbalanced phenomenon of tourism consumption in 16 cities in the province will exist for a long time, which needs to be paid enough attention.  ...  For example, Li et al. (2017) use Google, Baidu and other network search data combined with traditional econometric model to forecast the tourist flow [4] .  ... 
doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202125101083 fatcat:5baavvkbcfa5dfn475hzvv7fsu

Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals

Emmanuel Sirimal Silva, Zara Ghodsi, Mansi Ghodsi, Saeed Heravi, Hossein Hassani
2017 Annals of Tourism Research  
We also find that MSSA has the capability of not only identifying leading indicators, but also forecasting tourism demand with far better accuracy in comparison to its univariate counterpart, Singular  ...  Our findings indicate with statistically significant evidence that there exists cross country relations between European tourist arrivals which can help in improving the predictive accuracy of tourism  ...  the SSA-V model, and N is the number of the forecasts.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.annals.2017.01.012 fatcat:lnkkdz5ip5fxvmwsjoj2jdrlci

Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting: A Review of Literature Related to Greater China

Gang Li
2009 Journal of China Tourism Research  
, forecasting exercises and emerging research trends.  ...  Comparisons between the two bodies of literature published in two languages show a number of research gaps, such as the diversity and sophistication of the research methodology, rigour of the modelling  ...  Measurement of Tourism Demand In consistency with the general literature on tourism demand modelling and forecasting, tourism demand for Greater China is usually measured by the number of tourist arrivals  ... 
doi:10.1080/19388160802711386 fatcat:enhs6vmjyncaxalvnl5mwy23ki

Globalization and Assessement of the Soft Power Potential of Belarus Using Econometric Instruments

Olena Primierova, Juliet Abakumova, T. Kliestik
2021 SHS Web of Conferences  
Also, the holding of sports and cultural events has a positive effect on the influx of foreign tourists into the country.  ...  Research background: When it comes to conducting international events in a country with a small open economy, the issue of assessing the ratio of costs of the event to subsequent economic effects is relevant  ...  , as measured by the Google Trend indices: the number of queries "Belarus", "Republic of Belarus", "Minsk" (in Russian and English) and some others increased significantly in the period before and during  ... 
doi:10.1051/shsconf/20219208015 fatcat:cpt276zbzjdfdozeukbh6rsdce

Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism

Puneet Vatsa
2020 Annals of Tourism Research  
Tourism research is replete with applications of univariate time-series decomposition techniques: multivariate frameworks have been largely ignored.  ...  Upon isolating trends and cycles in tourism demand from these countries, we find evidence of strong long-term comovement: they share one common trend.  ...  Li and Law (2019) also applied EEMD to decompose (Google Trends) search engine data, derive cyclical components, and build forecasts of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from nine countries.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.annals.2020.102965 pmid:32508372 pmcid:PMC7264943 fatcat:vf3lvkhdhjehtddsm6ujwqhii4

Tourism Demand Forecasting: An Ensemble Deep Learning Approach [article]

Shaolong Sun, Yanzhao Li, Ju-e Guo, Shouyang Wang
2021 arXiv   pre-print
The availability of tourism-related big data increases the potential to improve the accuracy of tourism demand forecasting, but presents significant challenges for forecasting, including curse of dimensionality  ...  Both bagging and stacked autoencoder can effectively alleviate the challenges brought by tourism big data and improve the forecasting performance of the models.  ...  Yang et al. (2015) suggest that localized SII data should be selected by comparing the fitness and forecasting ability of Google Trends with those of Baidu Index.  ... 
arXiv:2002.07964v3 fatcat:lwn7pmsxcrdihpldiw3hx2y77i
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