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Dynamic Forecasting Algorithm of Inbound Ice and Snow Tourism in China Based on Improved Deep Confidence Network

Yuguang Zhao, Chuanming Jiao, Jinhui Li, Zhigang Yuan, Xin Li, Hanghai Gu, Zhong Zhang, Fazlullah Khan
2021 Mobile Information Systems  
The inbound tourism demand dynamic prediction model uses an improved deep confidence network to learn and train the prediction model, input test data into the trained model, and output the dynamic prediction  ...  time, a dynamic forecasting algorithm for ice and snow inbound tourism based on an improved deep confidence network is proposed.  ...  Acknowledgments is study was supported by Qiqihar City Philosophy and Social Science Research Planning Project: Research on the status and development PATH of Qiqihar city's ice and snow sports industry  ... 
doi:10.1155/2021/5016905 fatcat:kseucnlyrzftfe5hud3wvuzusm

Tourism Traffic Demand Prediction Using Google Trends Based on EEMD-DBN

Yi Xiao, Xueting Tian, John J. Liu, Gaohui Cao, Qingxing Dong
2020 Engineering  
EEMD extracted the high frequency noise from the original series. The low frequency series of search composite index would be used to forecast the low frequency tourism traffic series.  ...  This paper considered the noise interference and proposed a hybrid model, combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), deep belief network (DBN) and Google trends, for tourism traffic demand  ...  CCNU19ZN024 and the Humanities and Social Sciences Layout Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China under Grant No. 20YJA740047.  ... 
doi:10.4236/eng.2020.123016 fatcat:x6ayhwzsvvc4tnitbi75hhxsz4

The Forecast of The Number of Inbound Tourists and The Analysis of The Source Market During The Epidemic of Coronavirus Disease

2020 International Journal of Biology and Genetics  
These models are better than linear regression and time series.  ...  As a leading tourism city in China, how to attract more tourists is not only related to the development of inbound tourism in Shanghai, but also provides some inspiration for other cities during the epidemic  ...  There are many methods to predict the number of Inbound Tourists: Jincheng Tang, Songsak sriboonchitta and Xinyu yuan [1] use the time series model combined with belief function to predict the demand  ... 
doi:10.31829/2692-4242/biogen2020-3(1)-109 fatcat:om3kybascjhcdg6odykpm2dcyu

A review of demand forecasting models and methodological developments within tourism and passenger transportation industry

Iman Ghalehkhondabi, Ehsan Ardjmand, William A. Young, Gary R. Weckman
2019 Journal of Tourism Futures  
Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.  ...  Design/methodology/approach -Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.  ...  Yu (2015) , optimized the grey model to forecast the inbound tourism demand for China. His model obtains more accurate results compared to time series.  ... 
doi:10.1108/jtf-10-2018-0061 fatcat:yrh57fdybbfnjn3byl23rwnn3e

Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach

George Athanasopoulos, Minfeng Deng, Gang Li, Haiyan Song
2014 Tourism Management  
This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand.  ...  The empirical results reveal significant substitution relationships between Australian domestic tourism and outbound travel to Asia, the UK and the US.  ...  Athanasopoulos and Hyndman (2008) used innovations state space models to forecast the domestic tourism demand.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2014.03.018 fatcat:oi7g5oefyrhahechggtwrfuyqm

Does Political and Economic Freedom Matter for Inbound Tourism? A Cross-National Panel Data Estimation

Shrabani Saha, Jen-Je Su, Neil Campbell
2016 Journal of Travel Research  
Su and Lin 2014, 3 to our knowledge, is the only study that includes political freedom as one of the control variables in modelling inbound tourism -nevertheless, since political freedom is not the main  ...  Additionally, it is reasonable to contend, that there would be tourists who are used to living in countries with high levels of personal freedom and hence prefer to have holidays in countries with such  ...  According to Baltagi 2008 and Wooldridge 2009 , panel data models are advantageous over models with cross-sectional or time-series data because panel data allows researchers to control for time-invariant  ... 
doi:10.1177/0047287515627028 fatcat:pqahmliu7vhx7imsphk2ks4ki4

Trends Underpinning Tourism to 2015

Larry Dwyer
2003 International Journal of Tourism Sciences  
Special thanks go to Tourism New South Wales and Victoria University for allowing us to use their facilities for the Sydney and Melbourne workshops.  ...  The authors would like to thank the many government and industry representatives who attended the workshops in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney and contributed their ideas and perspectives to the final report  ...  Tourism Forecasts for Australia The Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC) of Tourism Research Australia produces forecasts for inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, and economic value using an iterative  ... 
doi:10.1080/15980634.2003.11434550 fatcat:37yr2civoffqpg24c7fyknnjbu

Tourism as a factor of long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis for Chile

Juan G Brida, Wiston Risso
2009 European Journal of Tourism Research  
We use annual data from 1988 to 2008 of the GDP of Chile, the tourism expenditure and the real exchange rate.  ...  This paper empirically investigates the impact of tourism on the long-run economic growth of Chile by using the Johansen analysis to obtain a co-integrated vector among the relevant variables and the Granger  ...  Data, model and results It is difficult to find long time series of tourism for Chile.  ... 
doi:10.54055/ejtr.v2i2.36 fatcat:dcveztdjpndzhcxrszk6yibss4


Linchuan Yang, K.W. Chau, Yi Lu, Xu Cui, Fanyu Meng, Xu Wang
2020 International Journal of Strategic Property Management  
This study examines locale-varying relationships between tourism development (measured by tourist volume and tourism expenditure) and retail property prices from 2002Q1 to 2014Q4 in Hong Kong using standard  ...  In other words, we find that tourism development measures can be used to better predict changes in retail property prices in the PTSA than simply referring to the price history.  ...  The authors are grateful to the three re-viewers for their constructive comments.  ... 
doi:10.3846/ijspm.2020.13343 fatcat:hdc2cg5zozglzlswef7ia2jtnu


International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2020 IMF Staff Country Reports  
taken to be weakly exogenous) for the 33 economies, and update this data until 2018Q2.  ...  The GVAR model includes 33 economies, which together cover more than 90 percent of world GDP (see Table 1 ).  ...  It links individual country-specific models in a coherent manner to form a global modelling framework by using time series, panel data, and factor analysis techniques.  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781513529424.002 fatcat:m7ehjzholnex3dzj2lkryaj3oi

Tourism Opportunities for Kazakhstan on the Great Silk Road

M. Yessenov, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, A. Beisakhmet, E. Kalimbetov, A. Artemiev, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
2017 Journal of Geography and Environmental Management  
beliefs, and scientific and technical achievements.  ...  Astana intends to invest $10 billion, $6 billion of which will come from private investors, and the country's tourism planners hope that it will help to develop its tourism sector by 2020.  ...  Tourism as a sector of the national economy produces the product, which has to correspond to the market categories of demand and supply.  ... 
doi:10.26577/jgem.2018.2.450 fatcat:i2oe6nnrhveydfxjpr227xjlvq

Oil depletion: What does this mean for Scottish tourism?

Ian Yeoman, J. John Lennon, Adam Blake, Miriam Galt, Chris Greenwood, Una McMahon-Beattie
2007 Tourism Management  
These were developed using a triangulation of methods including the use of systems thinking models to construct the scenarios to computable general equilibrium modelling to analyse the impact of oil and  ...  The Energy Inflation scenario presumes mass belief in the plenitude of available oil reserves and the failure to respond quickly enough to alter demand.  ...  in inbound tourism to the urban centres at least.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2006.09.014 fatcat:wiexjgdrvvc27jbdd4zta6fafy

International Journal of Business and Management, Vol. 4, No. 9, September 2009, all in one PDF file

Lisa Wang
2009 International Journal of Business and Management  
Acknowledgement I would like to express my thanks to Feng Nianhua, Zhang Weiya, Tang Shu, Yu Shihai, Li Na  ...  , that between the international inbound tourism and export trade is 0.977; and that between the international inbound tourism and investment attraction is 0.943.  ...  , and to increase the functions of products, all of which demand for amounts of capital.  ... 
doi:10.5539/ijbm.v4n9p0 fatcat:efikc3xfcred3fa6icirvfiobu

Panel threshold analysis of Taiwan's outbound visitors

Chou Ming Che
2013 Economic Modelling  
According to the forecast of World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the global demand for tourism and travel totalled US$ 5,490,400 in 2004, or 3.8% of global GDP, with worldwide tourism investments expected  ...  First presented by Tong (1978) , the threshold model was an application of the threshold autoregression (TAR) model to the empirical testing of nonlinear time series.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.006 fatcat:4kou43kzkbe6jnbykeiwvhurge

COVID-19 and China's Hotel Industry: Impacts, a Disaster Management Framework, and Post-Pandemic Agenda

Fei Hao, Qu Xiao, Kaye Chon
2020 International Journal of Hospitality Management  
A COVID-19 management framework is proposed to address the anti-pandemic phases, principles, and strategies.  ...  , digital and intelligent transformation, and market reshuffle.  ...  Despite the existence of the aforementioned frameworks and models, there is a growing demand for a context-specific model for COVID-19 because of the following reasons: existing frameworks are not realigned  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102636 pmid:32834356 pmcid:PMC7405826 fatcat:cltimazjjzhfhfw2fuw5z2bvs4
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