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Extracting transmission and recovery parameters for an adaptive global system dynamics model of the COVID-19 pandemic

Craig S. Carlson, David M. Rubin, Vilma Heikkilä, Michiel Postema
2021 Zenodo  
Accurately modelling the susceptibility, infection, and recovery of populations with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic is highly relevant for the implementation of counter- measures by governing bodies.  ...  The average transmission and recovery parameters were computed to be 0.33 week^{−1} and 0.23 week^{−1} , respectively.  ...  We demonstrate that the extraction of transmission and recovery parameters from real SIR data is feasible for an adaptive global system dynamics model of the COVID-19 pandemic.  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.5084435 fatcat:bmv3evw3obacxh2rob352k2jzi

Data Analysis, Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 using Machine Learning

Toshaniwali Bhargav, Toran Verma
2021 International Journal of Computer Applications  
In this work, we present a global analysis and exploring the World Wide data of Covid-19.  ...  The parameters of the models are estimated by utilizing real-time data.  ...  Data pre-processing After extracting the data, we can pre-process the raw data of COVID-19 and make it suitable for a machine learning model.  ... 
doi:10.5120/ijca2021921425 fatcat:fe55vcemvzelvpdbpuijxur72i

COVID-19 Modeling: A Review [article]

Longbing Cao, Qing Liu
2021 arXiv   pre-print
It constructs a research landscape of COVID-19 modeling tasks and methods, and further categorizes, summarizes, compares and discusses the related methods and progress of modeling COVID-19 epidemic transmission  ...  This paper provides a comprehensive review of the challenges, tasks, methods, progress, gaps and opportunities in relation to modeling COVID-19 problems, data and objectives.  ...  More information about COVID-19 modeling is in https://datasciences.org/covid19-modeling/.  ... 
arXiv:2104.12556v3 fatcat:pj2bketcrveafbjf2m7tx3odxy

Time Series Forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada Using LSTM Networks

Vinay Kumar Reddy Chimmula, Lei Zhang
2020 Chaos, Solitons & Fractals  
In addition to that, we compared transmission rates of Canada with Italy and USA. Here we also presented the 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 th day predictions for 2 successive days.  ...  Based on the public datasets provided by John Hopkins university and Canadian health authority, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 outbreak in Canada using state-of-the-art Deep Learning  ...  Wide range of statistical and mathematical models [9, 10] have been proposed to model the transmission dynamics of current COVID-19 epidemic.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109864 pmid:32390691 pmcid:PMC7205623 fatcat:dbihil3fqnha7dxlj2xnmf5yte

Dynamics of Interacting Hotspots – I [article]

Suman Dutta
2020 arXiv   pre-print
The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread.  ...  Although each stochastic exchange conserves populations pair-wise, the disorder drives the global system towards newer routes to dynamic equilibrium.  ...  Since an effective model requires the prior knowledge of transmission and recovery rates, it is almost impossible to estimate them in the midway of an epidemic, for the rates depend on the nature of instantaneous  ... 
arXiv:2004.12799v1 fatcat:ybjl5qiqz5fcpmmmu5qu7zzrgy

Short-term statistical forecasts of COVID-19 infections in India

Ram Kumar Singh, Martin Drews, Manuel De La Sen, Manoj Kumar, S.S. Singh, A.K. Pandey, Prashant Kumar Srivastava, Manmohan Dobriyal, Meenu Rani, Preeti Kumari, Pavan Kumar
2020 IEEE Access  
Using these results alongside a complementary SIR model, we find that one-third of the Indian population could eventually be infected by COVID-19, and that a complete recovery from COVID-19 will happen  ...  Here we demonstrate the performance of an easily transferable statistical model based on the classic Holt-Winters method as means of providing COVID-19 forecasts for India at different administrative levels  ...  Due to the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission, which is still to be fully understood by researchers, and the high number of infected people globally, managing the associated health risks is still the main  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2020.3029614 pmid:34812360 pmcid:PMC8545286 fatcat:nrcq7a4y2zbmznzs6fc3rew35e

A review of mathematical modeling, artificial intelligence and datasets used in the study, prediction and management of COVID-19

Youssoufa Mohamadou, Aminou Halidou, Pascalin Tiam Kapen
2020 Applied intelligence (Boston)  
In the past few months, several works were published in regards to the dynamics and early detection of COVID-19 via mathematical modeling and Artificial intelligence (AI).  ...  Both Mathematical modeling and AI have both shown to be reliable tools in the fight against this pandemic. Several datasets concerning the COVID-19 have also been collected and shared open source.  ...  Compliance with Ethical Standards Conflict of interests The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10489-020-01770-9 pmid:34764546 pmcid:PMC7335662 fatcat:sxoc44h6bvhfjccdimeyfgchh4

STAN: spatio-temporal attention network for pandemic prediction using real-world evidence

Junyi Gao, Rakshith Sharma, Cheng Qian, Lucas M Glass, Jeffrey Spaeder, Justin Romberg, Jimeng Sun, Cao Xiao
2021 JAMIA Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association  
Objective We aim to develop a hybrid model for earlier and more accurate predictions for the number of infected cases in pandemics by (1) using patients' claims data from different counties and states  ...  It uses a graph attention network to capture spatio-temporal trends of disease dynamics and to predict the number of cases for a fixed number of days into the future.  ...  We use an additional transmission dynamics loss based on pandemic transmission dynamics to optimize the model.  ... 
doi:10.1093/jamia/ocaa322 pmid:33486527 fatcat:i6iaxzfl5bhhvek7zpo7ermhge

Strategy Management of COVID-19 Pandemic: An Integrative Review

Brahim Zaadoud, EL Rhazi Karima
2021 Journal of healthcare  
Before the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries had their preparedness for pandemics  ...  This rapid spread of COVID-19 has prompted numerous community responses.  ...  The failure to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide can be largely attributed to a lack of awareness of the importance of airborne transmission of the virus via aerosols.  ... 
doi:10.36959/569/469 fatcat:vnjm6flg6rbljepa52l5uwv7fm

Modelling the Potential Impact of Social Distancing on the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa

F. Nyabadza, F. Chirove, C. W. Chukwu, M. V. Visaya, Raul Alcaraz
2020 Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine  
In this paper, we present a deterministic model to describe the impact of social distancing on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa.  ...  The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global health problem whose impact has been significantly felt in South Africa.  ...  Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the Faculty of Science at the University of Johannesburg for material support towards the inception and completion of this project.  ... 
doi:10.1155/2020/5379278 pmid:33178332 pmcid:PMC7647790 fatcat:lnruv6gjjjfanmorgher7lx2lq

STAMINA: Bioinformatics Platform for Monitoring and Mitigating Pandemic Outbreaks

Nikolaos Bakalos, Maria Kaselimi, Nikolaos Doulamis, Anastasios Doulamis, Dimitrios Kalogeras, Mathaios Bimpas, Agapi Davradou, Aggeliki Vlachostergiou, Anaxagoras Fotopoulos, Maria Plakia, Alexandros Karalis, Sofia Tsekeridou (+15 others)
2022 Technologies  
This paper presents the components and integrated outcome of a system that aims to achieve early detection, monitoring and mitigation of pandemic outbreaks.  ...  The architecture of the platform aims at providing a number of pandemic-response-related services, on a modular basis, that allows for the easy customization of the platform to address user's needs per  ...  Data Availability Statement: All data driven applications used the our world in data COVID-19 datasets, complimented by proprietary datasets share by the STAMINA consortium.  ... 
doi:10.3390/technologies10030063 fatcat:haa4gagpxzcolmwhdnzlvpq3gm

PANDEMIC ANALYTICS TO ASSESS RISK OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK

Tapalina Bhattasali
2020 Azerbaijan Journal of High Performance Computing  
COVID-19 pandemic has spread all over the world within a short period. It has changed every aspect of our daily lives significantly.  ...  The analysis part is capable of forecasting the status and of answering various questions that arise from various parts of the world, such as the dependency of COVID-19 infection with sex, age, location  ...  Pandemic analytics demand the design of a system model to analyze the official data, which can be used to address various predictive questions in the context of COVID-19.  ... 
doi:10.32010/26166127.2020.3.1.32.45 fatcat:nmah7pcbwrc3fjwgq7kvgagjye

Understanding the Evolution of Government Attention in Response to COVID-19 in China: A Topic Modeling Approach

Quan Cheng, Jianhua Kang, Minwang Lin
2021 Healthcare  
The effective control over the outbreak of COVID-19 in China showcases a prompt government response, in which, however, the allocation of attention, as an essential parameter, remains obscure.  ...  These findings shed light on the Chinese government's dynamic response to the pandemic and indicate the strength of applying adaptive governance strategies in coping with public health emergencies.  ...  Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. Healthcare 2021, 9, 898  ... 
doi:10.3390/healthcare9070898 fatcat:657guk76qjhrdes3n6a2632ufa

Data-Driven Methods for Present and Future Pandemics: Monitoring, Modelling and Managing [article]

Teodoro Alamo, Daniel G. Reina, Pablo Millán Gata, Victor M. Preciado, Giulia Giordano
2021 arXiv   pre-print
This survey analyses the role of data-driven methodologies for pandemic modelling and control.  ...  to past or present epidemics, such as Covid-19, as well as their potential application to future epidemics.  ...  See also [234] for an strategy that optimizes testing resources in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.  ... 
arXiv:2102.13130v2 fatcat:x32qf63ggvd7raopwpp357tryi

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling analysis with high-and-moderate risk populations

Salihu S. Musa, Isa A. Baba, Abdullahi Yusuf, Tukur A. Sulaiman, Aliyu I. Aliyu, Shi Zhao, Daihai He
2021 Results in Physics  
for mitigating the COVID-19 epidemic in Nigeria.Besides, in the absence of an exact solution for the proposed model, we solve the model with the well-known ODE45 numerical solver and the effective numerical  ...  In this paper, we employ an SEIR-based compartmental model to study the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Nigeria.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to the handling editor and anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments which were used to strengthen the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104290 pmid:34026471 pmcid:PMC8131571 fatcat:g6ldicniq5cwbcq4pk44wpvgga
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