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A method for explaining Bayesian networks for legal evidence with scenarios

Charlotte S. Vlek, Henry Prakken, Silja Renooij, Bart Verheij
2016 Artificial Intelligence and Law  
We propose an explanation method for understanding a Bayesian network in terms of scenarios.  ...  Whereas a Bayesian network is a popular tool for analysing parts of a case, constructing and understanding a network for an entire case is not straightforward.  ...  Acknowledgments This work is part of the project ''Designing and Understanding Forensic Bayesian Networks with Arguments and Scenarios'' in the Forensic Science programme, financed by the Netherlands Organisation  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10506-016-9183-4 fatcat:vc7xmcanmzdd5bmldatzx6e4pe

Explaining Bayesian Networks in Natural Language: State of the Art and Challenges

Conor Hennessy, Alberto Bugarín, Ehud Reiter
2020 Zenodo  
This can serve as a re- search agenda for future work on natural language explanations of Bayesian Networks.  ...  In order to increase trust in the usage of Bayesian networks and to cement their role as a model which can aid in critical decision making, the challenge of explainability must be faced.  ...  Acknowledgments This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 860621.  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.5882297 fatcat:jzlyddagorbftnyfolbyia2s4a

Constructing and understanding Bayesian networks for legal evidence with scenario schemes

Charlotte Vlek, Henry Prakken, Silja Renooij, Bart Verheij
2015 Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law - ICAIL '15  
We make three distinct contributions: (1) we propose to use scenario schemes to aid the construction of Bayesian networks, (2) we propose a method for producing scenarios in text form from the resulting  ...  In this paper, we propose to combine Bayesian networks with a narrative approach to reasoning with legal evidence, the result of which allows a juror to reason with alternative scenarios while also incorporating  ...  Acknowledgements This work is part of the project "Designing and Understanding Forensic Bayesian Networks with Arguments and Scenarios" in the Forensic Science programme, financed by the Netherlands Organisation  ... 
doi:10.1145/2746090.2746097 dblp:conf/icail/VlekPRV15 fatcat:g72nqv4arna57lgccvervedncy

Editors' Review and Introduction: Models of Rational Proof in Criminal Law

Henry Prakken, Floris Bex, Anne Ruth Mackor
2020 Topics in Cognitive Science  
In this topic three approaches to rational reasoning about evidence in criminal law are compared in light of these demands: arguments, probabilities, and scenarios.  ...  The aim of this topic is to obtain more insight into how the different approaches can be applied in a legal context.  ...  We thank Hylke Jellema and Nadine Smit for translating the Simonshaven case files from Dutch into English and for anonymizing the files.  ... 
doi:10.1111/tops.12519 pmid:33146468 fatcat:7uzjr4m4ajbata7bi6ai426zyi

Arguments, scenarios and probabilities: connections between three normative frameworks for evidential reasoning

Bart Verheij, Floris Bex, Sjoerd T. Timmer, Charlotte S. Vlek, John-Jules Ch. Meyer, Silja Renooij, Henry Prakken
2015 Law, Probability and Risk  
We discuss a hybrid model that connects arguments and scenarios, a method to probabilistically model possible scenarios in a Bayesian network, a method to extract arguments from a Bayesian network, and  ...  a proposal to model arguments for and against different scenarios in standard probability theory.  ...  Acknowledgments The research reported in this paper has been performed in the context of the project 'Designing and Understanding Forensic Bayesian Networks with Arguments and Scenarios', funded in the  ... 
doi:10.1093/lpr/mgv013 fatcat:x3upvmnbnbh4fdqw7qpimby2iq

Building Bayesian networks for legal evidence with narratives: a case study evaluation

Charlotte S. Vlek, Henry Prakken, Silja Renooij, Bart Verheij
2014 Artificial Intelligence and Law  
In previous work, techniques were proposed to represent narratives in a Bayesian network and to use narratives as a basis for systematizing the construction of a Bayesian network for a legal case.  ...  In this paper, these techniques are combined to form a design method for constructing a Bayesian network based on narratives.  ...  Acknowledgements This work is part of the project "Designing and Understanding Forensic Bayesian Networks with Arguments and Scenarios" in the Forensic Science programme, financed by the Netherlands Organisation  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10506-014-9161-7 fatcat:mkdurd5zlfadffuov7ak4d4nv4

Relating Admissibility Standards for Digital Evidence to Attack Scenario Reconstruction

Changwei Liu, Anoop Singhal, Duminda Wijesekera
2014 Journal of Digital Forensics, Security and Law  
Using a prototype implementation, we show how evidence extracted by using forensic tools can be integrated with legal reasoning to reconstruct network attack scenarios.  ...  As a solution, we propose to integrate the legal aspects of evidence correlation into a Prolog based reasoner to address the admissibility requirements by creating most probable attack scenarios that satisfy  ...  to use the most admissible evidence obtained from a particular attacked network to construct a substantiated attack scenario.  ... 
doi:10.15394/jdfsl.2014.1180 fatcat:xx5xmgt4hnd7rd6j7y4lvm3ici

Explainable Automated Reasoning in Law using Probabilistic Epistemic Argumentation [article]

Inga Ibs, Nico Potyka
2020 arXiv   pre-print
We introduce a general scheme to model legal cases as probabilistic epistemic argumentation problems, explain how evidence can be modeled and sketch how explanations for legal decisions can be generated  ...  Here, we investigate probabilistic epistemic argumentation as a tool for automated reasoning about legal cases.  ...  (Vlek et al. 2016) propose a method to model different scenarios about crimes with Bayesian networks using scenario scheme idioms and to extract information about the scenario and the quality of the scenario  ... 
arXiv:2009.05815v1 fatcat:3og64fpx45c2zlp72lqar2gqyy

On direct and indirect probabilistic reasoning in legal proof

Henry Prakken
2014 Law, Probability and Risk  
In the academic literature three approaches to rational legal proof are investigated, broadly speaking based, respectively on Bayesian statistics, on scenario construction and on argumentation.  ...  Direct probabilistic reasoning directly reasons from evidence to hypotheses, while indirect probabilistic reasoning reasons from hypotheses to evidence (and then back to the hypotheses).  ...  and counterarguments can be extracted from a forensic Bayesian network.  ... 
doi:10.1093/lpr/mgu013 fatcat:h22rxqs7nrb2zbawtebqjwp3uy

Compositional Bayesian modelling for computation of evidence collection strategies

Jeroen Keppens, Qiang Shen, Chris Price
2010 Applied intelligence (Boston)  
Evidence collection is a difficult task, however, because it necessitates consideration of: a wide range of plausible crime scenarios, the evidence that may be produced under these hypothetical scenarios  ...  This paper presents such a KBS. It employs a novel compositional modelling technique that is integrated into a Bayesian model based diagnostic system.  ...  The authors are very grateful to Colin Aitken, Mark Lee, Tom Nelson and Burkhard Schafer for helpful discussions and assistance, whilst taking full responsibility for the views expressed here.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10489-009-0208-5 fatcat:sjy4kxrqcjd5dcorv5rah6t324

A two-phase method for extracting explanatory arguments from Bayesian networks

Sjoerd T. Timmer, John-Jules Ch. Meyer, Henry Prakken, Silja Renooij, Bart Verheij
2017 International Journal of Approximate Reasoning  
In this paper we propose to explain the inner workings of a BN in terms of arguments. We formalise a two-phase method for extracting probabilistically supported arguments from a Bayesian network.  ...  First, from a Bayesian network we construct a support graph, and, second, given a set of observations we build arguments from that support graph.  ...  Acknowledgement This work is part of the project "Designing and Understanding Forensic Bayesian Networks with Arguments and Scenarios", supported by the Forensic 935 Science research program financed by  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2016.09.002 fatcat:s2mdj32erjf6nltrqff6kax26e

Aquifers Overexploitation in SE Spain: A Proposal for the Integrated Analysis of Water Management

José Luis Molina, José Luis García Aróstegui, José Benavente, Consuelo Varela, Africa de la Hera, Juan Antonio López Geta
2009 Water resources management  
As from a hydrogeological point of view the water system is comprised of four autonomous aquifers, a Bayesian Network for  ...  As Bayesian Networks was the chosen technique for the integrated analysis, the information obtained by the sectorial studies was translated into specific variables, which together with the relations among  ...  The secondary goals of this paper are to show the Bayesian Networks (BNs) model structure designed as a Decision Support System (DSS) for this study, as well as the description and simulation of the different  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11269-009-9406-5 fatcat:gnfi64s4i5hdfnxsdytzwt4i7m

A structure-guided approach to capturing bayesian reasoning about legal evidence in argumentation

Sjoerd T. Timmer, John-Jules Ch. Meyer, Henry Prakken, Silja Renooij, Bart Verheij
2015 Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law - ICAIL '15  
We introduce the notion of a support graph as an intermediate structure between Bayesian networks and argumentation models.  ...  Moreover, we show that this model can provide a suitable template for argumentative analysis. Especially in the context of legal reasoning, the correct treatment of statistical evidence is important.  ...  Acknowledgments This work is part of the project "Designing and Understanding Forensic Bayesian Networks with Arguments and Scenarios", supported by the Forensic Science research program financed by the  ... 
doi:10.1145/2746090.2746093 dblp:conf/icail/TimmerMPRV15 fatcat:klibbzfxkrh2zisew2dkbc4mra

BARD: A structured technique for group elicitation of Bayesian networks to support analytic reasoning [article]

Ann E. Nicholson, Kevin B. Korb, Erik P. Nyberg, Michael Wybrow, Ingrid Zukerman, Steven Mascaro, Shreshth Thakur, Abraham Oshni Alvandi, Jeff Riley, Ross Pearson, Shane Morris, Matthieu Herrmann, A.K.M. Azad (+3 others)
2020 arXiv   pre-print
BARD (Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi) is both a methodology and an expert system that utilises (1) BNs as the underlying structured representations for better argument analysis, (2) a multi-user web-based  ...  Bayesian networks (BNs) are an artificial intelligence technology that models uncertain situations, supporting probabilistic and causal reasoning and decision making.  ...  Acknowledgement Funding for the BARD project was provided by IARPA through their CREATE project, under contract number 2017-16122000003.  ... 
arXiv:2003.01207v1 fatcat:xwbujeyv4nbi7ii47ukcin673a

The cybercrime process : an overview of scientific challenges and methods

Patrick Lallement
2013 International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications  
a judge.  ...  aim of this article is to describe the cybercrime process and to identify all issues that appear at the different steps, between the detection of incident to the final report that must be exploitable for  ...  This layer developed for IPS (Intrusion Prevention Systems) requires reasoning methods at a global level as for IPS. They use generally Bayesian approaches and variables from the network.  ... 
doi:10.14569/ijacsa.2013.041211 fatcat:dbyy6kbp4zeqtnuytz5mdl7d7y
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