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Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions

Christoph Werner, Tim Bedford, Roger M. Cooke, Anca M. Hanea, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
2017 European Journal of Operational Research  
Therefore this paper offers a systematic review of the current literature on eliciting dependence.  ...  From this, guidance about the strategy for dependence assessment is given and gaps in the existing research are identified to determine future directions for structured methods to elicit dependence.  ...  However, a complete 45 and systematic way of comparing different dependence parameters as elicited quantities, and reflecting their use in dependence models in the form of a literature review has been  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2016.10.018 fatcat:cei45dplmndtfgrjeglx42g3ie

Local knowledge in ecological modeling

Annie Claude Bélisle, Hugo Asselin, Patrice LeBlanc, Sylvie Gauthier
2018 Ecology and Society  
The validity of a modeling exercise is enhanced by an interdisciplinary approach and is jeopardized when LEK elicitation lacks rigor.  ...  Local people and scientists both hold ecological knowledge, respectively stemming from prolonged day-to-day contact with the environment and from systematic inquiry based on the scientific method.  ...  Acknowledgments: We are grateful for the financial support provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada  ... 
doi:10.5751/es-09949-230214 fatcat:aa75bryswbbpbmiwqqdb2jsb4a

Quantitative scenario design with Bayesian model averaging: constructing consistent scenarios for quantitative models exemplified for energy economics

Monika Culka
2018 Energy, Sustainability and Society  
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a method that allows for an evaluation of both system relation stability in terms of observable co-evolvement of phenomena in the past and of future system states of interest  ...  the scenario, and (3) the statistical uncertainty of the scenario for a given quantitative model.  ...  Fiedler in particular for their suggestions and criticisms that substantially improved the paper.  ... 
doi:10.1186/s13705-018-0162-3 fatcat:xkbkxlxlc5amrpadzdjdw7hecq

Eliciting Model Structures for Multivariate Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Mark Burgman, Hannah Layman, Simon French
2021 Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics  
In this paper, we focus on the use of expert judgement to fill gaps left by insufficient data and understanding.  ...  Research across a range of fields has found that groups have access to more diverse information and ways of thinking about problems, and routinely outperform credentialled individuals on judgement and  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank Terry Walshe, Katie Moon and two reviewers for many insightful and helpful comments.  ... 
doi:10.3389/fams.2021.668037 fatcat:dgopj7veijgpvlknfwguchzity

A human-centered risk model for the construction safety

Kaiwei Wu, Zekun Wu
2020 IEEE Access  
This fuzzy BNN was developed into a human-centered risk model.  ...  A case study on the fire accident in the construction of Xiamen Metro Line 2 in China was provided.  ...  In addition, some historical data from the literature review were provided to the experts for reference.  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2020.3017772 fatcat:jokt4w2uvrc53krcvpcfu6sndi

The Use of Bayesian Networks to Assess the Quality of Evidence from Research Synthesis: 1

Gavin B. Stewart, Julian P. T. Higgins, Holger Schünemann, Nick Meader, Neil R. Smalheiser
2015 PLoS ONE  
We tested the model using a range of plausible scenarios that guideline developers or review authors could encounter. Results Overall, the model reproduced GRADE judgements for a range of scenarios.  ...  The grades of recommendation, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach is widely implemented in systematic reviews, health technology assessment and guideline development organisations throughout  ...  Acknowledgments We thank Kristel King, Alexis Llewellyn, Gill Norman, Jennifer Brown, Mark Rodgers, Thirimon Moe-Byrne, Amanda Sowden and Jane Dalton for helpful discussions regarding this work.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0114497 pmid:25837450 pmcid:PMC4383525 fatcat:podqcc6wmnflhihz3amygswhki

Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom

Jakub Bijak, George Disney, Allan M. Findlay, Jonathan J. Forster, Peter W.F. Smith, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
2019 Journal of Forecasting  
The aim of this article is to provide a blueprint for assessing various possible forecasting approaches in order to help safeguard producers and users of official migration statistics against misguided  ...  To achieve that, we first evaluate the various existing approaches to modelling and forecasting of international migration flows.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The work underpinning this paper has been prepared for and was funded by the UK Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), under the Home Office Science  ... 
doi:10.1002/for.2576 fatcat:asmn3jdsarhthlcavk2wy2earu

Modelling in Health Economic Evaluation

Alan Brennan, Ron Akehurst
2000 PharmacoEconomics (Auckland)  
Acknowledgements This paper could not have been written without the Trent Institute Acute Purchasing Working Group and the staff of the Operational Research Section of ScHARR.  ...  Thanks are particularly due to Chris McCabe for initiating the consensus  ...  Yet more studies used data from outside trials for the quantity of resources used -21% used other literature review and 5% used expert judgements.  ... 
doi:10.2165/00019053-200017050-00004 pmid:10977387 fatcat:f5kjyfjzvffzhlkgm27mpm52ye

Bayesian Model for Cost Estimation of Construction Projects

Sang-Yon Kim
2011 Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction  
This research presents verify a model that were conducted to illustrate the functionality and application of a decision support system for predicting the costs.  ...  In this research, bayesian network is adopted to model the problem of construction project cost.  ...  Bayesian networks are a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed cyclic graph [12] .  ... 
doi:10.5345/jkic.2011.02.1.091 fatcat:3s4xh5y5ebgntiz3xq7s7vmmzm

The use of contextual priors and kinematic information during anticipation in sport: toward a Bayesian integration framework

N. Viktor Gredin, Daniel T. Bishop, A. Mark Williams, David P. Broadbent
2020 International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology  
In this paper, we propose that researchers interested in anticipation in sport could adopt a Bayesian model for probabilistic inference as an overarching framework.  ...  While the body of literature in this area continues to grow exponentially, researchers have yet to develop an overarching theoretical framework that can predict and explain anticipatory behaviour and provide  ...  This review provides a brief overview of the current trends in the sport anticipation literature and proposes that, in future, researchers could adopt Bayesian models for probabilistic inference as an  ... 
doi:10.1080/1750984x.2020.1855667 fatcat:3rfz7nw7e5b7bm6znndlnqsvky

The art of company financial modelling

Zoran Lukić
2017 Croatian Operational Research Review  
In corporate finance, the term financial modelling denotes a widely used technique of comprehensive customised quantification of a company's entire operations.  ...  The paper elaborates on the main steps and principles for building financial models of companies.  ...  This perceived duality is further supported by a review of the literature.  ... 
doi:10.17535/crorr.2017.0026 fatcat:qpit342zijfkhdcoiufv6wt4qe

Probabilistic graphical models in artificial intelligence

P. Larrañaga, S. Moral
2011 Applied Soft Computing  
In this paper, we review the role of probabilistic graphical models in artificial intelligence.  ...  Finally, we propose some important challenges for future research and highlight relevant applications (forensic reasoning, genomics and the use of graphical models as a general optimization tool). #  ...  Acknowledgments The authors are very grateful to the anonymous reviewers who provided some valuable and useful suggestions.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2008.01.003 fatcat:y25eqeaj5rfrrjwb5nuxcwiqzm

Philosophy of Climate Science Part II: Modelling Climate Change

Roman Frigg, Erica Thompson, Charlotte Werndl
2015 Philosophy Compass  
In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed  ...  Acknowledgement Many thanks to Reto Knutti, Wendy Parker, Lenny Smith, Dave Stainforth and  ...  expert judgement.  ... 
doi:10.1111/phc3.12297 fatcat:bo2r5rnft5fsnisp6kf4s3idwy

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework

Lucy Bastin, Dan Cornford, Richard Jones, Gerard B.M. Heuvelink, Edzer Pebesma, Christoph Stasch, Stefano Nativi, Paolo Mazzetti, Matthew Williams
2013 Environmental Modelling & Software  
We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling.  ...  We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.  ...  Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007(FP7/ -2013 under grant agreement n [248488], UncertWeb.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.02.008 fatcat:g7fqjxaaufhs7kkwrjcjq4wdku

An introduction to prior information derived from probabilistic judgements: elicitation of knowledge, cognitive bias and herding

Michelle C. Baddeley, Andrew Curtis, Rachel Wood
2004 Geological Society Special Publication  
This paper reviews the causes of bias and error inherent in prior information derived from the probabilistic judgements of people.  ...  As a result, future judgements are bootstrapped from, and hence biased by, both the heuristics employed and prior opinion.  ...  This would be another direction for fruitful and useful future research. Expert elicitation techniques (methods of interrogating experts for information -see below) address these issues.  ... 
doi:10.1144/gsl.sp.2004.239.01.02 fatcat:cvp25zrkvnf77kuttpnlzdbdna
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