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Examining criticality of blackouts in power system models with cascading events

I. Dobson, J. Chen, J.S. Thorp, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
Proceedings of the 35th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences  
We investigate a critical loading at which the average size of blackouts increases sharply to examine whether the probability distribution of blackout sizes shows the power tails observed in real blackout  ...  Three different models are used, including two simulations of cascading outages in electric power transmission systems.  ...  In complex systems, power tails in probability distributions are associated with systems at criticality.  ... 
doi:10.1109/hicss.2002.993975 dblp:conf/hicss/DobsonCTCN02 fatcat:zu7l7ahkq5drzjd3ncy3m2axzm

05/02537 Cascading dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system disturbances via a hidden failure model

2005 Fuel and Energy Abstracts  
His current interests are applications of complex systems and nonlinear dynamics, cascading failure and self organized criticality in blackout risk, electric power system instabilities, and power electronics  ...  For a different cascading failure blackout model at a similar level of model detail see the OPA model in [10-12].  ...  Acknowledgements Part of this work was coordinated by the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions and was  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0140-6701(05)83035-8 fatcat:hmdcrjx755ezfkqwvdo4g2j2ny

Cascading dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system disturbances via a hidden failure model

Jie Chen, James S. Thorp, Ian Dobson
2005 International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems  
A hidden failure embedded DC model of power transmission systems has been developed to study the power law distributions observed in North American blackout data.  ...  The sensitivity of power-law behavior with respect to each of these four parameters and the corresponding blackout mitigation are discussed and illustrated via simulation results from the WSCC 179-bus  ...  Acknowledgements Part of this work was coordinated by the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions and was  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2004.12.003 fatcat:v6dqpden4bdircyoyyo6iajshm

Where is the edge for cascading failure?: challenges and opportunities for quantifying blackout risk

Ian Dobson
2007 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting  
High-level probabilistic models of cascading failure and power system simulations suggest that there is a critical loading at which expected blackout size sharply increases and there is a power law in  ...  We summarize initial testing on power system simulations of cascading overloads and speculate that extending this approach to process data from series of cascades occurring in the power system could lead  ...  There is evidence of a change in cascading blackout risk at a critical loading or stress that provides a reference point for power system design and operation with respect to cascading failure.  ... 
doi:10.1109/pes.2007.385773 fatcat:3qp5ul3j6vgx3k7hy5qadvbhby

Determining the Vulnerabilities of the Power Transmission System

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson
2012 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences  
Determining the vulnerabilities in power transmission systems requires two distinct steps because most large blackouts have two distinct parts, the triggers/initiating event followed by the cascading failure  ...  Next, the cascading part of the extreme event (which can be long or short) is critically dependent on the "state" of the system; how heavily the lines are loaded, how much generation margin exists, and  ...  Therefore, it is important to complement the standard test of power systems with other ways of detecting vulnerabilities of the system to combinations of initiating events and the propagation of the cascading  ... 
doi:10.1109/hicss.2012.208 dblp:conf/hicss/CarrerasND12 fatcat:wbdiytkzizf77git7ob3ud6gqa

Evolving power grids with self-organized intermittent strain releases: An analogy with sandpile models and earthquakes

Ho Fai Po, Chi Ho Yeung, An Zeng, K. Y. Michael Wong
2017 Physical review. E  
In this paper, we introduce a simple model of evolving powergrid and establish its connection with the sandpile model, i.e. a prototype of SOC, and earthquakes, i.e. a system considered to be in SOC.  ...  Various aspects are examined, including the power-law distribution of blackout magnitudes, their inter-event waiting time, the predictability of large blackouts, as well as the spatial-temporal rescaling  ...  Self-organized criticality in the model powergrid To show that our powergrid model exhibits the characteristics of a critical state, we first examine the distribution of cascade size, measured as the total  ... 
doi:10.1103/physreve.96.052312 pmid:29347740 fatcat:234afttaqbewbkktpcieykf2ri

Effect of Short-Term Risk-Aversive Dispatch on a Complex System Model for Power Systems

Ronan Fitzmaurice, Andrew Keane, Mark O'Malley
2011 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems  
Publication information IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 26 (1): 460-469 Publisher IEEE Link to online version http://dx.  ...  The model is based on the DC load flow approximations of electrical power systems. It does not lend itself to detailed examination of blackouts or in depth modeling of the system components.  ...  Modeling of Cascading Failures The model replicates cascading events by a loading dependent failure probability of the lines in the system.  ... 
doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2010.2050079 fatcat:fwgyp3x55bfofcqklkda5v5i5a

An Analysis Of Blackouts For Electric Power Transmission Systems

Karamitsos Ioannis, Orfanidis Konstantinos
2007 Zenodo  
In this paper an analysis of blackouts in electric power transmission systems is implemented using a model and studied in simple networks with a regular topology.  ...  The proposed model describes load demand and network improvements evolving on a slow timescale as well as the fast dynamics of cascading overloads and outages.  ...  The timing of events in the cascade is neglected so that the cascade modeling moves through a possible sequence of states of the network rather than simulating the evolution of the cascade in time.  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.1071287 fatcat:xeppfa2mtzce5gu3uc7rt5meje

An Analysis Of Blackouts For Electric Power Transmission Systems

Karamitsos Ioannis, Orfanidis Konstantinos
2007 Zenodo  
In this paper an analysis of blackouts in electric power transmission systems is implemented using a model and studied in simple networks with a regular topology.  ...  The proposed model describes load demand and network improvements evolving on a slow timescale as well as the fast dynamics of cascading overloads and outages.  ...  The timing of events in the cascade is neglected so that the cascade modeling moves through a possible sequence of states of the network rather than simulating the evolution of the cascade in time.  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.1334699 fatcat:4352eoo7afcsxpi745pps4wuxy

Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in a Time Series of Electric Power System Blackouts

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson, A.B. Poole
2004 IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I Fundamental Theory and Applications  
A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts is suggested.  ...  We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of selforganized criticality (SOC).  ...  Chiang and the School of Electrical Engineering at Cornell University for their generous hospitality during a sabbatical leave.  ... 
doi:10.1109/tcsi.2004.834513 fatcat:bf6ra7ksqffpbn25dvsb6fzbuy

A Survey on Power System Blackout and Cascading Events: Research Motivations and Challenges

Hassan Haes Alhelou, Mohamad Hamedani-Golshan, Takawira Njenda, Pierluigi Siano
2019 Energies  
Moreover, the challenges in the existing protective schemes and research gaps in the topic of power system blackout and cascading events are marked out.  ...  However, modern systems are equipped with several protection schemes with the aim of avoiding the unpredicted events and power outages, power systems are still encountering emergency and mal-operation  ...  models which helps to identify the critical initial disturbances, and helps to eliminate the cascading blackout of power systems in advance.  ... 
doi:10.3390/en12040682 fatcat:f3lhzcahrvekdi37a56jrqnwg4

Validating OPA with WECC Data

Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman, Ian Dobson, Naga S. Degala
2013 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences  
We validate the OPA cascading blackout simulation on a 1553 bus WECC network model by establishing OPA parameters from WECC data and comparing the blackout statistics obtained with OPA to historical WECC  ...  Irena Green of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) for expertly producing the 1553 bus WECC grid model.  ...  Acknowledgments We gratefully acknowledge funding in part by California Energy Commission, Public Interest Energy Research Program, Power Systems Engineering Research Center (PSERC), DOE grant DE-SC0002283  ... 
doi:10.1109/hicss.2013.594 dblp:conf/hicss/CarrerasNDD13 fatcat:azb7cctsmvd7lfug22zzha5zki

Estimation for Expected Energy Not Served of Power Systems Using the Screening Methodology of Cascading Outages in South Korea

Bokyung Goo, Jin Hur
2017 Energies  
The uncertainty of complex power systems increases the possibility of large blackouts due to the expectations of physical events, such as equipment failures, protection failures, control actions failure  ...  Cascading outage is a sequence of dependent failures of individual components that successively weaken the power system.  ...  However, it is essential to examine the possibility of a major outage in the event of a critical situation when large-scale power transmission is concentrated in a metropolitan area and physical or cyber-attacks  ... 
doi:10.3390/en11010081 fatcat:kwn3cqvatnbx5gdfpt2cwl2sg4

Engineering resilient cyber-physical systems

T. J. Overbye
2012 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting  
The grid should be able to "keep the all the lights on" under small to moderate system disturbances, and to keep at least some level of system service even in the event of severe system disturbances.  ...  The Power Systems Engineering Research Center (PSERC) is a multi-university Center conducting research on challenges facing the electric power industry and educating the next generation of power engineers  ...  Acknowledgements This paper was developed as part of "The Future Grid to Enable Sustainable Energy Systems: An Initiative of the Power Systems Engineering Research Center (PSERC)."  ... 
doi:10.1109/pesgm.2012.6344943 fatcat:e6tmsh7wgngqvcktwbbb6g57tu

Risk Metrics for Dynamic Complex Infrastructure Systems Such as the Power Transmission Grid

D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, N.S. Degala, I. Dobson
2012 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences  
Complex critical infrastructures such as power transmission networks, communication systems, transportation network and others display many of the characteristic properties of complex systems.  ...  They also often display correlations between events suggesting that the system memory is important in its evolution.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We gratefully acknowledge support in part from NSF grants SES-0623985 and SES-0624361 and in part by the California Energy Commission, Public Interest Energy Research Program.  ... 
doi:10.1109/hicss.2012.508 dblp:conf/hicss/NewmanCDD12 fatcat:epgpn7zq2behlhpxgcnkxgzbdq
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