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Evently: Modeling and Analyzing Reshare Cascades with Hawkes Processes [article]

Quyu Kong, Rohit Ram, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Here we present evently, a tool for modeling online reshare cascades, and particularly retweet cascades, using self-exciting processes.  ...  It provides a comprehensive set of functionalities for processing raw data from Twitter public APIs, modeling the temporal dynamics of processed retweet cascades and characterizing online users with a  ...  The Hawkes processes. evently models reshare cascades using Hawkes processes [6] -a type of point processes with the selfexciting property, i.e., the occurrence of past events increases the likelihood  ... 
arXiv:2006.06167v3 fatcat:7usqk77qgvebbj6f2ti4f2urh4

Understanding and forecasting lifecycle events in information cascades

Soumajyoti Sarkar, Ruocheng Guo, Paulo Shakarian
2017 Social Network Analysis and Mining  
the occurrence of two events within the cascade lifecycle - the period of maximum growth in terms of surge in reshares and the period where the cascade starts declining in adoption.  ...  We also extend the Granger-causality Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to forecast the times at which the events occur in the cascade lifecycle.  ...  use Hawkes point process model to predict the final number of reshares of a post.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s13278-017-0475-9 fatcat:dlw24easojdtpfmee775p3eidi

Birdspotter: A Tool for Analyzing and Labeling Twitter Users [article]

Rohit Ram, Quyu Kong, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu
2020 arXiv   pre-print
The impact of online social media on societal events and institutions is profound; and with the rapid increases in user uptake, we are just starting to understand its ramifications.  ...  Social scientists and practitioners who model online discourse as a proxy for real-world behavior, often curate large social media datasets.  ...  Acknowledgments This research was partially funded by Facebook Research under the Content Policy Research Initiative grants and the Defence Science and Technology Group of the Australian Department of  ... 
arXiv:2012.02370v1 fatcat:gpmxautuprh6hmb73p2f4oi67a

Describing and Predicting Online Items with Reshare Cascades via Dual Mixture Self-exciting Processes [article]

Quyu Kong, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Lexing Xie
2020 arXiv   pre-print
It is well-known that online behavior is long-tailed, with most cascaded actions being short and a few being very long.  ...  We first start from the observation that maximum likelihood estimates for content virality and influence decay are separable in a Hawkes process.  ...  and DP200101317.  ... 
arXiv:2001.11132v2 fatcat:wv3geoed3basvfz7xnks5gb3yq

Scalable Prediction of Information Cascades over Arbitrary Time Horizons [article]

Daniel Haimovich, Dima Karamshuk, Thomas J. Leeper, Evgeniy Riabenko, Milan Vojnovic
2020 arXiv   pre-print
We propose a model for predicting an information cascade size at arbitrary time horizons based on Hawkes point processes with exponentially decaying intensity.  ...  The prediction task is difficult because view events are the result of complicated interactions between resharing, feed ranking algorithms, and organic features of the content popularity and network structure  ...  Content resharing events and post privacy settings govern the information spread in a network, with each reshare providing access to information to some uninformed users.  ... 
arXiv:2009.02092v1 fatcat:lcma673ksbhwtjlij3gwn3eccy

Using network motifs to characterize temporal network evolution leading to diffusion inhibition [article]

Soumajyoti Sarkar, Ruocheng Guo, Paulo Shakarian
2019 arXiv   pre-print
We study the lifecycle of information cascades to understand what leads to saturation of growth in terms of cascade reshares, thereby resulting in expiration, an event we call "diffusion inhibition".  ...  We test features of motif patterns by using regression models for both individual patterns and their combination and we find that motifs as features are better predictors of the future network organization  ...  Acknowledgements Some of the authors are supported through the AFOSR Young Investigator Program (YIP) grant FA9550-15-1-0159, ARO grant W911NF-15-1-0282, and the DoD Minerva program grant N00014-16-1-2015  ... 
arXiv:1903.00862v1 fatcat:r6vlgw6oljbsjewsna3nq75pmq

Information cascades prediction with attention neural network

Yun Liu, Zemin Bao, Zhenjiang Zhang, Di Tang, Fei Xiong
2020 Human-Centric Computing and Information Sciences  
., videos on YouTube, tweets on Twitter, and photos on Flickr) with her set of friends, who subsequently can potentially reshare the content, resulting in the development of a cascade of resharing.  ...  An attention mechanism, which consists of the intra-attention and inter-gate module, was designed to obtain and fuse the temporal and structural information learned from the observed period of the cascade  ...  [23] modeled the popularity dynamics of the tweet in Twitter using the Hawkes process.  ... 
doi:10.1186/s13673-020-00218-w fatcat:dzdoxvdyoncjhjyxdrb6fzgaze

The Social Dynamics of Language Change in Online Networks [chapter]

Rahul Goel, Sandeep Soni, Naman Goyal, John Paparrizos, Hanna Wallach, Fernando Diaz, Jacob Eisenstein
2016 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
Next, we test whether specific types of social network connections are more influential than others, using a parametric Hawkes process model.  ...  above 2.0, we manually removed hashtags, named entities, non-English words, and descriptions of events. 6 Other sources, such as, report asl to be an abbreviation of age, sex  ...  Acknowledgments Thanks to the reviewers for their feedback, to Márton Karsai for suggesting the infection risk analysis, and to Le Song for discussing Hawkes processes.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-47880-7_3 fatcat:gnotlcs7xrc53pvml2nuh5afhq

The Social Dynamics of Language Change in Online Networks [article]

Rahul Goel, Sandeep Soni, Naman Goyal, John Paparrizos, Hanna Wallach, Fernando Diaz, Jacob Eisenstein
2016 arXiv   pre-print
Next, we test whether specific types of social network connections are more influential than others, using a parametric Hawkes process model.  ...  Language change is a complex social phenomenon, revealing pathways of communication and sociocultural influence.  ...  Acknowledgments Thanks to the reviewers for their feedback, to Márton Karsai for suggesting the infection risk analysis, and to Le Song for discussing Hawkes processes.  ... 
arXiv:1609.02075v1 fatcat:fg3yuyy7jjd2heajyvcbgw64wu

A Survey of Information Cascade Analysis: Models, Predictions and Recent Advances [article]

Fan Zhou, Xovee Xu, Goce Trajcevski, Kunpeng Zhang
2020 arXiv   pre-print
opportunities to explore and exploit the trajectories and structures of the evolution of information cascades.  ...  This article presents a comprehensive review and categorization of information popularity prediction methods, from feature engineering and stochastic processes, through graph representation, to deep learning-based  ...  This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61602097 and No. 61472064, and NSF under Grant CNS 1646107.  ... 
arXiv:2005.11041v2 fatcat:wxn5azl25vhe7pnulkfpehezey

Inferring Multiplex Diffusion Network via Multivariate Marked Hawkes Process [article]

Peiyuan Suny, Jianxin Li, Yongyi Mao, Richong Zhang, Lihong Wang
2018 arXiv   pre-print
We propose the Multiplex Diffusion Model (MDM) which incorporates the multivariate marked Hawkes process and topic model to infer the multiplex structure of social network.  ...  However, this task is challenging since (1) the network structure is usually hidden with only observations of events like "post" or "repost" associated with each node, and (2) the interactions between  ...  were generated by a Multivariate Marked Hawkes Process which is nature to model the cascade effect.  ... 
arXiv:1809.07688v1 fatcat:4svludgdg5afbj7u4lkmg3vcfi

Modeling stochastic processes in disease spread across a heterogeneous social system

Minkyoung Kim, Dean Paini, Raja Jurdak
2018 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems.  ...  The effectiveness of our proposed model is shown by using comprehensive simulation procedures (robustness tests with noisy data considering missing or delayed human case reporting in real situations) and  ...  We would like to thank Queensland Health and Tourism Research Australia for providing data.  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.1801429116 pmid:30587583 pmcid:PMC6329989 fatcat:sebtlq7mbrfqdce7ua7xvnvw6u

Forecasting Retweet Count during Elections Using Graph Convolution Neural Networks

Raghavendran Vijayan, George Mohler
2018 2018 IEEE 5th International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA)  
In this model, they have extended the idea of self exciting process(also referred to as Hawkes Process), that is used to model earthquakes.  ...  It means the reshare event recorded at a time in the past may pave the way to another reshare event in the future.  ... 
doi:10.1109/dsaa.2018.00036 dblp:conf/dsaa/VijayanM18 fatcat:3lkd3vbafbdufjekipi6grnvwy

Linking Epidemic Models and Self-exciting Processes for Online and Offline Event Diffusions [article]

Quyu Kong, University, The Australian National
By observing that maximum likelihood estimates are separable in a Hawkes process, the model, consisting of a Borel mixture model and a kernel mixture model, jointly learns the unfolding of a heterogeneous  ...  This thesis discusses diffusions of online information and epidemics by developing and connecting self-exciting processes and epidemic models.  ...  cascades with Hawkes processes.  ... 
doi:10.25911/wjsh-xn56 fatcat:prptkb7x5ra7jezkaby4n3b5fm

Interval-censored Hawkes processes [article]

Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Alexander Soen, Shidi Li, Pio Calderon, Leanne Dong, Aditya Krishna Menon, Lexing Xie
2021 arXiv   pre-print
This work builds a novel point process and tools to use the Hawkes process with interval-censored data.  ...  First, we establish the Mean Behavior Poisson (MBP) process, a novel Poisson process with a direct parameter correspondence to the popular self-exciting Hawkes process.  ...  Hawkes properties and augmented models. Other studies focus on analyzing other aspects of the Hawkes process that are not directly used to connect different models and estimation procedures.  ... 
arXiv:2104.07932v3 fatcat:blcymsscs5cpvnuzyqty2wgg44
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