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Optimal regimes for algorithm-assisted human decision-making [article]

Mats J. Stensrud, Aaron L. Sarvet
2022 arXiv   pre-print
Such regimes are decision functions of measured pre-treatment variables and enjoy a "superoptimality" property whereby they are guaranteed to outperform conventional optimal regimes currently considered  ...  A key feature of these superoptimal regimes is the use of natural treatment values as input to the decision function.  ...  Vanessa Didelez for insightful comments that have helped us improve the manuscript.  ... 
arXiv:2203.03020v1 fatcat:7nbt5bxqybbkzmdhnjgcpm37fa

Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures

James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson
2017 Journal of Economic Perspectives  
Following Sims (1980) , the use of vector autoregressions to estimate the dynamic causal effect of shocks on economic variables was widespread.  ...  One was that a dynamic causal effect-for example, the effect on output growth of the Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate-is properly conceived as the effect of a shock, that is, of an unanticipated  ...  ■ We thank Gray Calhoun, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, and the authors of the papers from which we took figures, for helpful comments.  ... 
doi:10.1257/jep.31.2.59 fatcat:4qafeks2yzhjpej4thdcbitl3i

Mental Health, Human Capital and Labor Market Outcomes

Christopher J. Cronin, Matthew Forsstrom, Nicholas W. Papageorge
2017 Social Science Research Network  
We develop and estimate a dynamic model in which individuals make sequential medical treatment and labor supply decisions while jointly managing mental health and human capital.  ...  There are two primary treatment alternatives available to those with mild to moderate depression or anxiety: psychotherapy and medication.  ...  Two-Stage Least Squares Estimates The instrumental variables strategy requires a minimum of two instruments that (i) alter mental health treatment decisions (i.e., instruments are not weak) and (ii) have  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2896946 fatcat:yali4cpp2fev7f3kn6saidff4q

Macroeconomic Volatility Trade-off and Monetary Policy Regime in the Euro Area

Alvaro Pinto Coelho de Aguiar, Manuel Mota Freitas Martins
2003 Social Science Research Network  
Both alternative solution-estimation methods employed -optimal control cum GMM, and dynamic programming cum FIML -identify a regime of strict inflation targeting with interest rate smoothing.  ...  The emergence of the regime relates to the improvement of the volatility trade-off between inflation and unemployment gap since the mid-80s.  ...  First, real-time estimates are published with a lag and are subject to subsequent revisions.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.355700 fatcat:3wvtjnd4trgzxav5jpowzd5lrm

A Light Emitting Diode (LED) Based Spatial Frequency Domain Imaging System for Optimization of Photodynamic Therapy of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer: Quantitative Reflectance Imaging

R. B. Saager, D. J. Cuccia, S. Saggese, K. M. Kelly, A. J. Durkin
2013 Lasers in Surgery and Medicine  
Ultimately, by optimizing the execution of PDT, this instrument has the potential to positively improve treatment outcomes.  ...  Background-Photodynamic therapy (PDT) offers the potential for enhanced treatment of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) with minimal scarring.  ...  Acknowledgments We acknowledge funding and support from U.S.  ... 
doi:10.1002/lsm.22139 pmid:23619900 pmcid:PMC3940278 fatcat:5iqyxvnuijhnrdrkyopajv4dke

Estimating Absolute Risks in the Presence of Nonadherence

Sengwee Toh, Sonia Hernández-Díaz, Roger Logan, James M. Robins, Miguel A. Hernán
2010 Epidemiology  
We also compared the dynamic treatment regime "take hormone therapy until certain adverse events become apparent, then stop taking hormone therapy" with no use (HR= 1.64; 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.18).  ...  The methods described here are also applicable to observational studies with time-varying treatments. The primary analysis of most randomized trials follows the intention-to-treat (ITT) principle.  ...  Secondary analysis: Model specification and dynamic treatment regimes Given a static treatment regime ā={a t ;t ≥ 0}, let the dynamic treatment regime d(ā) be the regime "follow the static regime ā until  ... 
doi:10.1097/ede.0b013e3181df1b69 pmid:20526200 pmcid:PMC3315056 fatcat:jbhi5sqcvrfmdcfrfeuz3nplpu

Threshold Effects of Health on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model

Jeffrey Kouton, Coffie Francis José N'guessan, Firmin Ayivodji
2018 Journal of Economics and Development Studies  
We apply a dynamic panel threshold model and find that health human capital stock, measured by life expectancy at birth, has a positive and significant impact on economic growth.  ...  More investments should be devoted to fight malaria, HIV/AIDS and diseases with a high morbidity that reduce the productivity of individuals.  ...  ) and the income is non-linear, varying in time and space.  ... 
doi:10.15640/jeds.v6n4a3 fatcat:4vud25gx7rgd3njhjkhw2saryi

Causal Inference from Longitudinal Studies with Baseline Randomization

Sengwee Toh, Miguel A. Hernán
2008 The International Journal of Biostatistics  
on inverse probability weighting and g-estimation -to estimate such effect, (iv) present an application of these methods to a naturalistic trial of antipsychotics on symptom severity of schizophrenia,  ...  We describe analytic approaches for study designs that, like large simple trials, can be better characterized as longitudinal studies with baseline randomization than as either a pure randomized experiment  ...  Hence g-estimation is the general version of instrumental variable estimation for time-varying treatments (Hernán and Robins, 2006) .  ... 
doi:10.2202/1557-4679.1117 pmid:20231914 pmcid:PMC2835458 fatcat:htw34nckofcezkvt4dnwkzi4iq

Analysis of Exchange-Rate Regime Effect on Growth: Theoretical Channels and Empirical Evidence with Panel Data

Marjan Petreski
2009 Social Science Research Network  
Applying dynamic system-GMM panel estimation on 169 countries over the period 1976-2006 and addressing all shortcoming of the empirical literature, this paper finds that the exchange-rate regime is not  ...  Hence, the main conclusion is that, as nominal variable, the exchange rate regime does not have explanatory power over growth. JEL: E42, F31  ...  Instrumental-variables and dynamic panel techniques The revitalization of the interest in long-run growth, its treatment as being a dynamic process (Islam, 1995) and the availability of macroeconomic  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1726752 fatcat:jvhaiqhcffahfjfasdxksp3kry

Inflation Targeting, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Performance Since the Great Recession

Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Nikolaj Malchow-MMller, Jens J. Nordvig
2013 Social Science Research Network  
Countries with an IT monetary regime with flexible exchange rates weathered the crisis much better than countries with other monetary regimes, predominantly countries with fixed exchange rates.  ...  The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent any institution with which they are affiliated.  ...  Moreover, monetary regimes are both durable and non-durable; i.e. IT is a time varying variable. See the respective tables for information on variable definitions and data sources.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2374295 fatcat:tvpr6x37mraj5hdijdfif5gdsq

Democracy Does Cause Growth

Daron Acemoglu, Suresh Naidu, Pascual Restrepo, James A. Robinson
2014 Social Science Research Network  
We obtain comparable estimates when we instrument democracy using regional waves of democratizations and reversals.  ...  We find similar effects of democratizations on annual GDP when we control for the estimated propensity of a country to democratize based on past GDP dynamics.  ...  In this section, we develop an instrumental variables (IV) strategy to deal with time-varying omitted variables that may simultaneously affect the likelihood of democracy and GDP growth.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2411791 fatcat:4e2m7dd6m5eabotesuldqcdj2a

Monetary Policy Dynamics in the United States

Oladimeji T. Shodipe, Olatunji Abdul Shobande
2021 Open Economics  
Further evidence suggests that the predictive power of the estimated model increases when a smoothing process is allowed.  ...  It provides an empirical solution to the central bank's optimisation problem when preferences are asymmetric in both in˛ation and output gaps.  ...  The estimation shows better policy improvement with a higher interest rate smoothing treatment. The results show that forwardlooking policy settings provide better predictions.  ... 
doi:10.1515/openec-2020-0111 fatcat:oxgptezlhrgslob2cs4krxslou

Temporal dynamics of pain

Stefan Schneider, Doerte U. Junghaenel, Masakatsu Ono, Arthur A. Stone
2018 Pain  
The instrument has demonstrated adequate test-retest reliability and convergent validity, and has been found useful as a screening tool of anxiety in rheumatology patients [65] .  ...  Participants rated how much they felt the following four emotions at the time of the prompt: depressed, angry, frustrated, and worried, using a 0-100 visual analogue scale anchored "not at all" to "extremely  ...  Acknowledgments This work was supported by grants from the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (R01 AR066200; A.A.S. and S.S., principal investigators) and the National  ... 
doi:10.1097/j.pain.0000000000001215 pmid:29557930 pmcid:PMC6008214 fatcat:tpiuig63pzdwxfrub7hdtnpoxa

Estimation of the optimal regime in treatment of prostate cancer recurrence from observational data using flexible weighting models

Jincheng Shen, Lu Wang, Jeremy M. G. Taylor
2016 Biometrics  
These data enable us to estimate the best dynamic regime of salvage treatment, while accounting for the complicated confounding of time-varying covariates present in the data.  ...  A multi-center prostate cancer observational study has provided us data on longitudinal prostate specific antigen (PSA) measurements, time-varying salvage treatment and cancer recurrence time.  ...  Acknowledgments The authors thank the editor, the associated editor and the anonymous referee for their helpful comments. This research is partially supported by NIH grant CA199338 and CA129102.  ... 
doi:10.1111/biom.12621 pmid:27893926 pmcid:PMC5466876 fatcat:xp4wjwcbjngipfve6tmtoro6la

Time-evolving controllability of effective connectivity networks during seizure progression

Brittany H. Scheid, Arian Ashourvan, Jennifer Stiso, Kathryn A. Davis, Fadi Mikhail, Fabio Pasqualetti, Brian Litt, Danielle S. Bassett
2021 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  
Our work suggests that a low-complexity model of time-evolving controllability may offer insights for developing and improving control strategies targeting seizure suppression.  ...  , propagation, and termination regimes of 34 seizures.  ...  and Grafton-W911NF-16-1-0474).  ... 
doi:10.1073/pnas.2006436118 pmid:33495341 pmcid:PMC7865160 fatcat:zannexhdnremhhc6smjalfvdjy
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