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Efficient Markets, Efficient Projects, and Predicting the Future [chapter]

John Favaro
2004 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
The efficient project concept is then used to motivate the preoccupation of agile developers with dealing only with available information at any time and not trying to predict the future.  ...  The dynamics of capital markets are understood through the concept of market efficiency; an analogy is developed to project efficiency for understanding the dynamics of agile projects.  ...  Predicting the Future The notion of efficient projects yields insight into the preoccupation of agile practitioners, so puzzling to many, with not trying to predict the future -expressed, for example,  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-540-24853-8_9 fatcat:kxwiyftfxrdy7hazlr2h6jsswu

Forecasting Stock Market Index using Artificial Intelligence

Sanskriti Harmukh, Mansi Mishra, Satyam Jain, Archit Chawda, Kauleshwar Prasad, Dinesh Kumar Bhawnani
2022 Zenodo  
Each point on the graph represents the date and the opening and closing stock prices for the share market.  ...  Based on the historical data we used fbprophet to forecast the stock quotes for the near future. The concerning forecast components like trends and weekly and yearly variations are also plotted.  ...  The project uses the LSTM model to predict future data. [6] In METHODOLOGY The project design process flow for the stock price prediction consists of the flow diagram of prediction of stock price at  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.6500420 fatcat:6rxbhpuzgfcdfjjz7kfeiv67di

Comparing Futures and Survey Forecasts of Near-Term Treasury Bill Rates

R. W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein
1989 Review  
In the terminology of Fama (1970) , our test is a 'semistrong" form test of market efficiency, since all the information in the survey projections would not have been publicly available when the futures  ...  The overall forecast accuracy of the threemonth-ahead futures and survey predictions are quite close.  ... 
doi:10.20955/r.71.33-42.hiu fatcat:3ahsphqphzg4pgmywlpo7jtr7q

Specifics of Evaluating the Efficiency of Development Investment Projects

S.A. Filin, V.A. Marushkina
2018 Digest Finance  
The article provides algorithms, including the one for formalizing and evaluating the efficiency of development projects through the specifics of their performance and real estate market.  ...  specifics of development projects and real estate market.  ...  To perform a scenario analysis of market risks, we shall determine the scope and likelihood of future events, which may modify the known trends in prediction intervals of the average prices for one square  ... 
doi:10.24891/df.23.2.150 fatcat:pgue4my4jbe2taq77lsoqhr3yu

House Price Forecasting using Data Mining

Nihar Bhagat, Ankit Mohokar, Shreyash Mane
2016 International Journal of Computer Applications  
The existing system involves calculation of house prices without the necessary prediction about future market trends and price increase.  ...  By analyzing previous market trends and price ranges, and also upcoming developments future prices will be predicted.  ...  This paper efficiently analyses previous market trends and price ranges, to predict future prices.  ... 
doi:10.5120/ijca2016911775 fatcat:ffza2n6otncezpei5rtoeg47jm

Market Efficiency and Nonlinear Analysis of Soybean Futures

Tao Yin, Yiming Wang
2021 Sustainability  
to improve market efficiency.  ...  At the same time, the prediction of price change direction and risk degree of the market are further studied.  ...  market and give policy suggestions to improve the efficiency of the market.  ... 
doi:10.3390/su13020518 fatcat:l4jjng6r5rc6zbtthag2szyrfe

Future Spot Rate: The Implications in Indonesia

R Adisetiawan, Pantun Bukit, Ahmadi Ahmadi
2020 Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Batanghari Jambi  
Based on the sample period used, empirical evidence suggests that spot rates and forward rates are significant in predicting future spots for EUR, JPY and AUD currencies.  ...  The research uses regression models for market-based forecasting methods. The variables used in this study are spot rates, forward rates and future spots.  ...  If the government wants to consider investing in foreign projects, the government can use the spot rate as a predictor (spot market efficiency), because the spot rate is shown to provide better prediction  ... 
doi:10.33087/jiubj.v20i1.874 fatcat:jppc7x37tfbkdhliat7rmujboa

The Influence of Managerial Ability on Future Performance

Luqita Romaisyah, Zahroh Naimah
2019 Journal of Economics, Business, and Government Challenges  
Managers with a high ability are believed to be able to make projections of future business conditions, thus they can design the right strategy for the procurement and optimization of the firm's resources  ...  The establishment of a single market in the ASEAN which is termed the ASEAN Economic Community (MEA) allows a country to sell goods and services easily to other countries throughout Southeast Asia, thus  ...  A wellmanaged and efficient firm will have a higher market value than its book value.  ... 
doi:10.33005/ebgc.v1i2.12 fatcat:bpssjm3tqvbphoaa4gj5ktzyxq

Applicability of Prediction Markets in Information Security Risk Management

Pankaj Pandey, Einar Arthur Snekkenes
2014 2014 25th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications  
In this paper, we examine the applicability of prediction markets in forecasting and assessment of information security events.  ...  We describe the usefulness of prediction markets in prediction of vulnerabilities, setting values for vulnerabilities and threats, and as a source of aggregating security information for pricing of cyber-financial  ...  Thus "in an efficient capital market, asset prices reflect all relevant information and thus provide the best prediction of future events given the current information" [13] . B.  ... 
doi:10.1109/dexa.2014.66 dblp:conf/dexaw/PandeyS14 fatcat:jidc3yk6kvaqhnpkjlz546vqlq

Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice

Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz
2006 Social Science Research Network  
If a prediction market is efficient, then the prices of these contracts perfectly aggregate dispersed information about the probability of each candidate being elected.  ...  This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information  ...  Prediction Markets in Theory: Information Aggregation The claim that prediction markets can efficiently aggregate information is based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.891232 fatcat:fqsmrg4qibcvzgi75e3tij2wp4

Agent-Based Modeling for By-Product Metal Supply—A Case Study on Indium

Jinjian Cao, Chul-Hun Choi, Fu Zhao
2021 Sustainability  
This work takes indium as an example of minor metal market and sets up an agent-based model to predict future market situation and supply–demand balance.  ...  Therefore, a bottom-up agent-based model can shed new light on the market dynamics and possible outcome of future indium supply–demand relationship.  ...  To reflect this fact, based on the prediction from DOE and recent CIGS photovoltaic development information on market share and lab energy efficiency, three scenarios based on different technology projection  ... 
doi:10.3390/su13147881 fatcat:3eivsnjvwbeltfektiljta7le4

A Survey on Stock Market Price Prediction System using Machine Learning Techniques

Mr. Yash Kadam, Mr. Sujay Kulkarni, Mr. Suyog Lonsane, Prof. Anjali S. Khandagale
2022 International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology  
Stock market prediction is an act of trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange.  ...  The low values of these two indicators show that the models are efficient in predicting stock closing price.  ...  The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. This project requires investigating trends in stock market and factors affecting the stock prices.  ... 
doi:10.22214/ijraset.2022.40635 fatcat:ba57sntpc5hftd7x6ixtltukve

TESTING WEAK FORM OF STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY AT THE MACEDONIAN STOCK EXCHANGE

Julijana Angelovska
2018 UTMS Journal of Economics  
To be efficient the market needs to be large and liquid, transaction costs should be cheaper than the expected investment strategy profits and Macedonian capital market as a developing market is characterized  ...  The efficient market research to date has focused mostly on the developed stock markets.  ...  Acknowledgment: this work is part of the project financed by UTMS: "Integration of the Macedonian capital market with the financial markets in the Balkans: perspectives and opportunities for securities  ... 
doaj:eb00fbb88ea84c43935136cdb48f2779 fatcat:6kt3fdt6vrhszfqahcxsjx27zy

DARPA's Policy Analysis Market for Intelligence: Outside the Box or Off the Wall?

ROBERT E. LOONEY
2004 The international journal of intelligence and counter intelligence  
AND COUNTERINTELLIGENCE VOLUME 17, NUMBER 3 On the other hand, DARPA clearly oversold the plan by assuming its markets would function as predicted by the efficient market theory.  ...  Critics, mainly politicians and newspaper op-ed writers, attacked the futures project on the grounds that it was unethical and in bad taste to accept wagers on the fate of foreign leaders and the likelihood  ...  with the planning is a strong deterrent to progressive thinking, of which we have no surplus. 31  ... 
doi:10.1080/08850600490446745 fatcat:az575qzebzhexlf44duqtuni5m

Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector

Zlatko Bačelić Medić, Tomislav Pukšec, Brian Vad Mathiesen, Neven Duić
2014 International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development (IJESD)  
One of the conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future.  ...  Through this paper, long-term energy demand projections for Croatian industry will be shown. The central point for development of the model will be parameters influencing the industry in Croatia.  ...  The model was tested on the referent year (2008) and used to predict future production capacities for domestic market and export, as well as import.  ... 
doi:10.1504/ijesd.2014.056412 fatcat:prxzcwaa2fdhxaaawijbdwsv7e
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