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Real options on power system planning under uncertainties and efficiency constraints

Marc Osthues, Christian Rehtanz, Gerardo Blanco, Michael Negnevitsky
2014 2014 Power Systems Computation Conference  
Deregulation and large-scale renewable energy penetration have increased uncertainties in power system planning.  ...  This paper proposes a methodology that improves decision making by valuing the flexibility of investment strategies to cope with uncertainty.  ...  This paper presents a new framework for improving decision making in power system planning under uncertainty and efficiency constraints.  ... 
doi:10.1109/pscc.2014.7038324 dblp:conf/pscc/OsthuesRBN14 fatcat:npjq3hrhffcnnh3agjx7p53ksi

Economy and CO2 emissions trade-off: A systematic approach for optimizing investments in process integration measures under uncertainty

Elin Svensson, Thore Berntsson
2010 Applied Thermal Engineering  
In the proposed approach we apply a model for optimization of decisions on energy efficiency investments under uncertainty and regard the decision problem as a multiobjective programming problem.  ...  under economic uncertainty.  ...  Methodology This study has been conducted using a methodology for optimization of investments in energy efficiency under uncertainty [1] .  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2009.02.010 fatcat:gfy4c2ec6nhg3bxq3kwnqisu2q

Optimal Time to Invest Energy Storage System under Uncertainty Conditions

Yongma Moon
2014 Energies  
This paper proposes a model to determine the optimal investment time for energy storage systems (ESSs) in a price arbitrage trade application under conditions of uncertainty over future profits.  ...  Also, improvement in efficiency of ESSs can reduce the uncertainty of arbitrage profit and, consequently, the reduced uncertainty enables earlier ESS investment, even for the same power capacity.  ...  Thus, in this research we discuss how decision-making might be different under uncertainty and decision flexibility. We focus specifically on investment in the arbitrage trade application of ESSs.  ... 
doi:10.3390/en7042701 fatcat:apbpe2eq45g7jnmhyukwpvzsji

Flexibility Value of Distributed Generation in Transmission Expansion Planning [chapter]

Paul Vasquez, Fernando Olsi
2010 Distributed Generation  
Event tree technique is a graphic tool that provides an effective structure for decomposing complex decision-making problems under the presence of uncertainties.  ...  Under this novel paradigm, TEP is a multi-period decision-making problem which entails determining ex-ante the right type, location, capacity, and timing of a set of available decision options in order  ... 
doi:10.5772/8885 fatcat:uxzsyxckujgc3m4ezxyhnrhgn4

Planning low-carbon electricity systems under uncertainty considering operational flexibility and smart grid technologies

Rodrigo Moreno, Alexandre Street, José M. Arroyo, Pierluigi Mancarella
2017 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences  
Finally, we review the most used practices in power system planning under uncertainty, highlight the challenges of incorporating operational aspects, and advocate the need for new and computationally-effective  ...  solutions leading to optimal investment in a smart grid context.  ...  the art in power system planning under uncertainty, in this section we aim to: (i) present in more general terms the main families of problems dealing with power system planning under uncertainty (of which  ... 
doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0305 pmid:29052551 pmcid:PMC5514361 fatcat:3ytl47jb5rctji5ahibnsq2blm

Coordinated Development Based Grid-Source-load Collaborative Planning Method of Uncertainty and Multi-agent Game

He Lei, Si-xuan Zhou, Yin-xiang Wang, Yun-fei Zheng, Lin Jing, Reng-cun Fang, Dong-jun Yang, Zi-xia Sang, L. Zhang, S. Defilla, W. Chu
2021 E3S Web of Conferences  
Firstly, the planning decision-making models of different stakeholders of DG investment operators, power grid investment operators and power users are constructed respectively; then, the static game behavior  ...  In this paper, we introduce the virtual game player "nature" to study the dynamic game behavior between the virtual game player and the power grid investment operator.  ...  Acknowledgments This research was supported in part by the State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company Science and Technology Project (521538180017).  ... 
doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202123301115 fatcat:whk62rhwxzhdplellvladhlfqe

Valuation of Flexible Transmission Investment Options Under Uncertainty

Ioannis Konstantelos, Goran Strbac
2015 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems  
The proposed framework is demonstrated with a case study on the IEEE-RTS where flexible technologies are shown to constitute valuable investment options when facing uncertainties in future renewable generation  ...  Significant uncertainty surrounds the future development of electricity systems, primarily in terms of size, location and type of new renewable generation to be connected.  ...  Strategic opportunities arise in all dynamic decision systems under uncertainty and are due to the inter-temporal resolution of uncertainty [8] .  ... 
doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2014.2363364 fatcat:p4oid4x6urdnvpcsfu46aydvcy

Power System Expansion Planning - State of the Problem

Nikolai I Voropai
2015 Global Journal of Technology and Optimization  
The paper gives an overview of the latest results in the development of the development of the methodology for expansion planning of electric power industry, electric power systems and companies in the  ...  The market approaches in generation and transmission networks are presented. The main principles of the holistic power system expansion planning are given.  ...  expansion, in order to make their decisions.  ... 
doi:10.4172/2229-8711.1000176 fatcat:tlc5gvj465az3ktcaknpah4aey

Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

Rolando Pringles, Fernando Olsina, Francisco Garcés
2014 Energy Policy  
efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments.  ...  Real Options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are  ...  Conclusions The efficient and timely expansion of transmission systems in competitive electricity markets is a problem that has not been satisfactorily resolved yet.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.034 fatcat:sngfzxga5rhjbk3lvnstcr32sa

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

Elin Svensson, Thore Berntsson, Ann-Brith Strömberg, Michael Patriksson
2009 Energy Policy  
Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making  ...  the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures.  ...  Blyth et al. (2007) investigate investment risks under uncertainty in a study of the timing of investments in power generation and, as in our model, they see the system from the point of view of a private  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023 fatcat:nf25cj7fpfcxffcugb5t2dl7xi

Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review

Anastasia Ioannou, Andrew Angus, Feargal Brennan
2017 Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews  
This paper provides a state-of-the-art literature review of the quantitative and semi-quantitative methods that have been used to model risks and uncertainties in sustainable energy system planning and  ...  The value of investments in renewable energy (RE) technologies has increased rapidly over the last decade as a result of political pressures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and the policy incentives  ...  No new data were collected in the course of this research.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.082 fatcat:w64kzevvbnfsndsqkstx4to5n4

Optimal Decision-Making under Uncertainty - Application to Power Transmission Investments [chapter]

Gerardo Blanco, Fernando Olsi
2011 Stochastic Optimization - Seeing the Optimal for the Uncertain  
Risk and uncertainties in the electric power system Nowadays, the risk analysis theory is widely used by decision-makers who face investment decision problems under uncertainty, since it provides a systematic  ...  The significant volatility present in the fuel market makes this uncertainty relevant exerting a profound influence on investment decisions in the transport system. • Discount rates.  ... 
doi:10.5772/15625 fatcat:a22cy3rw6vhq7eu4bnqmk72es4

Intelligent Decision-Making System with Green Pervasive Computing for Renewable Energy Business in Electricity Markets on Smart Grid

Dong-Joo Kang, JongHyuk Park, Sang-Soo Yeo
2009 EURASIP Journal on Wireless Communications and Networking  
This paper is about the intelligent decision-making system for the smart grid based electricity market which requires distributed decision making on the competitive environments composed of many players  ...  On this backgrounds this paper provides an algorithm to make an optimal decision considering above factors.  ...  Optimization models are generally used for solving decision-making problems under given resources and conditions.  ... 
doi:10.1155/2009/247483 fatcat:osk7v3o5d5h23pfm4bfj6dhi4i

A Novel Way to Select the Optimal Electrical Power Demand Management Provider forRobust Smart Grid

2020 North atlantic university union: International Journal of Circuits, Systems and Signal Processing  
in real timeto maximize power efficiency.  ...  Efficient power demandmanagement must prevent or minimize risks in advance betweenthe customer and the demand management provider.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENT This study was conducted by research funds from Gwangju University in 2020.  ... 
doi:10.46300/9106.2020.14.66 fatcat:u3mfusynkfat7mjw7g6y64bo6m

'Transmission expansion planning under different uncertainties'

Ercan Şenyiğit
2018 New Trends and Issues Proceedings on Humanities and Social Sciences  
Our work is aimed to be the interesting modelling work in the field of industrial engineering, addressing many uncertainties in the electricity market.  ...  This study aimed to determine the transmission expansion plan by considering the uncertainties in the electricity energy market.  ...  However, placing such a dynamic framework in a decision-making tool makes it difficult to calculate.  ... 
doi:10.18844/prosoc.v4i10.3075 fatcat:7lpfdwrndjazrmzf7m5r3ofzm4
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