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Dynamically eliciting unobservable information

Christopher P. Chambers, Nicolas S. Lambert
2014 Proceedings of the fifteenth ACM conference on Economics and computation - EC '14  
information he privately receives?  ...  We answer the following question: At t = 1, an expert has (probabilistic) information about a random outcome X.  ...  The elicitation protocol for continuous-time dynamic information is strategyproof. Proof.  ... 
doi:10.1145/2600057.2602859 dblp:conf/sigecom/ChambersL14 fatcat:7xshjo32a5gdxkicrs7tg3isum

Using Subjective Expectations Data to Allow for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Hotz-Miller Estimation Strategies

Juan Pantano, Yu Zheng
2010 Social Science Research Network  
We introduce a novel approach to allow for unobserved heterogeneity in two-step structural estimation strategies for discrete choice dynamic programming models (i.e strategies that avoid full solution  ...  Of more empirical relevance, we show that our results hold when we allow these subjective future choice probabilities to be elicited in less than ideal circumstances, such as, for example, when self-reports  ...  In other words, the unobserved state k is di¤erent for the two …rms, k A 6 = k B : Therefore, di¤erences in self-reports are informative about underlying unobserved heterogeneity.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2129303 fatcat:7wt62qrx4ngvldbh7kzhifk7tq

Knowledge acquisition by conceptual modelling

Christine W. Chan
1992 Applied Mathematics Letters  
., see for example [2] ) are available for eliciting or capturing information from experts.  ...  While KRITON and KEATS support conversion of the elicited information into some intermediate knowledge representation formalism, they lack an explicit underlying methodology [2] .  ... 
doi:10.1016/0893-9659(92)90027-7 fatcat:fxelt6fa2zhdjou7if5ibwchqu

A theory of inferred causation [chapter]

Judea Pearl, Thomas S. Verma
1995 Studies in Logic and the Foundations of Mathematics  
and CPT Elicitation • Hugin Tutorials --Tutorial 1: constructing a simple BBN in Hugin • http://www.hugin.com/hugintro/bbn_tu_pane.html • Eliciting CPTs(or collecting from data) and entering  ...  case: -h ≡ BBN parameters (Θ), N i ≡ unobserved variable, E i ≡ observed variable -• Partially Observable Case -I is unknown -Best estimate for I: , h ML ≡Θ ML -unknown!  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0049-237x(06)80074-1 fatcat:gihsurzxdjebhkbtilxcjlhtqi

Page 136 of Sage Public Administration Abstracts Vol. 27, Issue 1 [page]

2000 Sage Public Administration Abstracts  
socioeconomic status as less informed and less intelligent, even after controlling for objective levels of politi- cal information.  ...  136 Sage Public Administration Abstracts Verbal protocols are elicited to collect data on the cognitive processes occurring during problem solving.  ... 

Recovering individual emotional states from sparse ratings using collaborative filtering [article]

Eshin Jolly, Max Farrens, Nathan Greenstein, Hedwig Eisenbarth, Marianne Reddan, Eric Andrews, Tor D. Wager, Luke J. Chang
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Dilation kernel widths should therefore be chosen as a function of the dynamics of emotional states elicited by stimuli as well as the sparsity of the dataset.  ...  Taken together, these results suggest that CF can be an effective approach for recovering user ratings with large individual differences elicited by naturalistic dynamic stimuli [62] .  ... 
arXiv:2109.06906v1 fatcat:oq4wqge6vban5lzlkmgwp4k4bi

Conceptualizing Enterprise Dynamic Systems Control For Run-Time Business Transactions

Sérgio Guerreiro, José Tribolet
2013 European Conference on Information Systems  
Systems Control theory, to elicit purposeful design requirements for a full enterprise dynamic systems control solution.  ...  transactions' dynamics.  ...  Observable / unobservable, Concept #7: There are control variables of an enterprise system that are observable, while others are unobservable.  ... 
dblp:conf/ecis/GuerreiroT13 fatcat:kn4auvarkzfzpgyouepaxnktmu

Inferring The Dynamics Of "Hidden" Neurons From Electrophysiological Recordings

Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos
2008 Zenodo  
Statistical analysis of electrophysiological recordings obtained under, e.g. tactile, stimulation frequently suggests participation in the network dynamics of experimentally unobserved "hidden" neurons  ...  Such interneurons making synapses to experimentally recorded neurons may strongly alter their dynamical responses to the stimuli.  ...  INTRODUCTION Computational availability of the nervous system relies both on the properties of single neurons and importantly on their interactions, where a complex dynamical information processing unobservable  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.1083471 fatcat:jzfekvz7ergojljvuiwmucfv6e

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

Catriona M. Queen, Ben J. Wright, Casper J. Albers
2007 Australian & New Zealand journal of statistics (Print)  
dynamic linear models.  ...  We propose using a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM).  ...  We shall use a particular type of multivariate Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM) (West and Harrison, 1997 ) called a Linear Multiregression Dynamic Model or LMDM (Queen and Smith, 1993 ).  ... 
doi:10.1111/j.1467-842x.2007.00477.x fatcat:uybu4mik4zbdbbcgxalhkwi3su

Integrating expert knowledge with data in Bayesian networks: Preserving data-driven expectations when the expert variables remain unobserved

Anthony Costa Constantinou, Norman Fenton, Martin Neil
2016 Expert systems with applications  
We provide a method for eliciting expert judgment that ensures the expected values of a data variable are preserved under all the known conditions.  ...  We also describe how to incorporate the assessment of extremely rare or previously unobserved events.  ...  knowledge as elicited.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2016.02.050 pmid:27378822 pmcid:PMC4930146 fatcat:uftj4jmck5aubnmlajwr7nsbmu

BUCKLE: A model of unobserved cause learning

Christian C. Luhmann, Woo-kyoung Ahn
2007 Psychological review  
A new model of causal learning, BUCKLE (bidirectional unobserved cause learning) extends existing models of causal learning by dynamically inferring information about unobserved, alternative causes.  ...  However, information about alternative causes is frequently unavailable, rendering them unobserved.  ...  Contingencies that elicited strong causal judgments of the unobserved cause led participants to believe that the unobserved cause varied with the effect more than conditions that elicited weaker unobserved  ... 
doi:10.1037/0033-295x.114.3.657 pmid:17638500 pmcid:PMC2659393 fatcat:rzmnxehnmvf6fmy5wxpjcxs45a

A Framework for Optimizing Paper Matching [article]

Laurent Charlin, Richard S. Zemel, Craig Boutilier
2012 arXiv   pre-print
An understanding of this dynamic is vital if one is to strike a balance between the demands of eliciting suitability scores from the user and increased accuracy of predictions.  ...  CF methods leverage known preference information for a subset of user-item to generate predictions for unobserved pairs.  ... 
arXiv:1202.3706v1 fatcat:qjkjnqgclvcblcchkqi4zf7y7e

The role of unobservable characteristics in friendship network formation [article]

Pablo Brañas-Garza, Lorenzo Ductor, Jaromír Kovárík
2022 arXiv   pre-print
We exploit rich data on a sample of University freshmen with very similar characteristic - age, race and education- and contrast the relative importance of observable vs. unobservables characteristics  ...  We show that, while observable features such as assignment of students to sections, gender, and smoking are robust key determinants of whether two individuals befriend each other, unobservable attributes  ...  subjects provided informed written consent.  ... 
arXiv:2206.13641v1 fatcat:zfse2imxorgvvpo7bmdfdnlxbu

Bayesian sequential data assimilation for COVID-19 forecasting [article]

Maria L. Daza-Torres, Marcos A. Capistrán, Antonio Capella, J. Andrés Christen
2021 arXiv   pre-print
We elicit prior distributions of the effective population size, the dynamical system initial conditions and infectious contact rate, and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to make inference and prediction  ...  The observation model depends on the dynamical system state variables and parameters, and is cast as a likelihood function.  ...  We elicit prior distributions of the effective susceptible population size, dynamical system initial conditions, and infectious contact rates and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to make inference and prediction  ... 
arXiv:2103.06152v1 fatcat:o4fgbmyynfcrbcdiraq7vgrbti

Supporting Privacy by Design Using Privacy Process Patterns [chapter]

Vasiliki Diamantopoulou, Christos Kalloniatis, Stefanos Gritzalis, Haralambos Mouratidis
2017 IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology  
Advances in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) have had significant impact on every-day life and have allowed us to share, store and manipulate information easily and at any time.  ...  To deal with such concerns, the literature has identified the need to introduce a Privacy by Design (PbD) approach to support the elicitation and analysis of privacy requirements and their implementation  ...  Unobservability -Definition: Unobservability is the inability of a third party to observe if a user (among a set of potential users) is using a service -Problem: The strength of unobservability set  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-58469-0_33 fatcat:cfos7zr4p5fflgxrhww2scsehu
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