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Commitment Versus Discretion in Climate and Energy Policy

Florian Habermacher, Paul Lehmann
2020 Environmental and Resource Economics  
With benefit uncertainty, the choice between the practically more feasible approaches of unconditional commitment and discretion is analytically ambiguous.  ...  A basic numerical illustration suggests that policy discretion may outperform unconditional commitment in terms of welfare.  ...  University of Kiel, the University of Hamburg as well as the Scientific Society of German-speaking Environmental and Resource Economists (AURÖ).  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10640-020-00414-3 fatcat:xupsyoubhrdhree7ovmr3hyun4

Towards Verification of Uncertain Cyber-Physical Systems

Carna Radojicic, Christoph Grimm, Axel Jantsch, Michael Rathmair
2017 Electronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science  
For numerical simulation, uncertain behavior can hardly be covered in a comprehensive way which motivates the use of symbolic methods.  ...  The paper describes an approach for symbolic simulation-based verification of CPS with uncertainties.  ...  Acknowlegement This work is funded, in part, within the ANCONA project (16ES021) within the program IKT 2020 by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and by Robert Bosch AG, Intel AG, and  ... 
doi:10.4204/eptcs.247.1 fatcat:3g7knqzurbbnddnwu5uez2gy5q

Lie group variational integrators for the full body problem

Taeyoung Lee, Melvin Leok, N. Harris McClamroch
2007 Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering  
A numerical integrator is derived for a class of models that describe the attitude dynamics of a rigid body in the presence of an attitude dependent potential.  ...  dynamics, and presence of chaotic motions.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.cma.2007.01.017 fatcat:4gasexilivapdnjg2egh6gbglq

Effects of Risk Presentation Format and Fear Message on Laypeople's Risk Perceptions

Thomas Britten Hove, 백혜진
2015 Journal of Public Relations  
Fear was manipulated through the presence versus absence of laypeople's expressions of fear in the message stimuli.  ...  The risk presentation formats used were numeric and verbal presentation of risk information.  ...  Fear was manipulated through the presence versus absence of laypeople's expressions of fear in the message stimuli.  ... 
doi:10.15814/jpr.2015.19.1.162 fatcat:htndybdaezckxgq5ogwtvevpq4

The endogenous grid method for discrete-continuous dynamic choice models with (or without) taste shocks

Fedor Iskhakov, Thomas H. Jørgensen, John Rust, Bertel Schjerning
2017 Quantitative Economics  
Discrete choices can lead to kinks in the value functions and discontinuities in the optimal policy rules, greatly complicating the solution of the model.  ...  We show how these problems are ameliorated in the presence of additive choice-specific independent and identically distributed extreme value taste shocks that are typically interpreted as "unobserved state  ...  , in the presence of extreme valued taste shocks and the existence of income uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.3982/qe643 fatcat:6auvsknnmvbfplmbyxoms5tkny

Bayesian Solution Uncertainty Quantification for Differential Equations

Oksana A. Chkrebtii, David A. Campbell, Ben Calderhead, Mark A. Girolami
2016 Bayesian Analysis  
Within the calibration problem, discretization uncertainty defines a layer in the Bayesian hierarchy, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that targets this posterior distribution is presented.  ...  The discussion outlines implications for the new field of probabilistic numerics.  ...  We would also like to acknowledge the funding agencies that have supported this research. Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada supported O. A. Chkrebtii (2010:389148) and D.  ... 
doi:10.1214/16-ba1017 fatcat:ew236c4qebf23bpbz2iu7mefwy

Uncertainty Assessment of CFD Investigation of the Nonlinear Difference-Frequency Wave Loads on a Semisubmersible FOWT Platform

Lu Wang, Amy Robertson, Jason Jonkman, Yi-Hsiang Yu
2020 Sustainability  
This paper focuses on assessing the uncertainty of the CFD predictions from simulations of the semisubmersible in a fixed condition under bichromatic wave loading and on establishing confidence in the  ...  The uncertainty for the nonlinear wave excitation is found to be acceptable but larger than that for the wave-frequency excitation, with the spatial discretization error being the dominant contributor.  ...  The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S.  ... 
doi:10.3390/su13010064 fatcat:c2iwoed5bnez5dkmyu25iqkhde

Ordering Algorithms and Confidence Intervals in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters [article]

Giovanni Punzi
2005 arXiv   pre-print
We discuss some issues arising in the evaluation of confidence intervals in the presence of nuisance parameters (systematic uncertainties) by means of direct Neyman construction in multi-dimensional space  ...  We describe a choice of ordering algorithm that provides results with good general properties, the correct behavior for small uncertainties, and limited overcoverage.  ...  This often occurs in real life: the systematic uncertainty may be due to a physical constraint, or related to a choice within a range (discrete or continuous) of theoretical predictions or assumptions,  ... 
arXiv:physics/0511202v1 fatcat:nw323zjjdrdmrcwvkrynqohsfa

Comment on "Including systematic uncertainties in confidence interval construction for Poisson statistics"

Gary C. Hill
2003 Physical Review D, Particles and fields  
to initially decrease in the face of increasing uncertainties, but only for the case of increasing signal efficiency uncertainty.  ...  The incorporation of systematic uncertainties into confidence interval calculations has been addressed recently in a paper by Conrad et al. (Physical Review D 67 (2003) 012002).  ...  This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under constract number OPP-9980474.  ... 
doi:10.1103/physrevd.67.118101 fatcat:64zrwnbvkjdzrhyq6yuxi435ni

Dilemmas, coordination and defection: How uncertain tipping points induce common pool resource destruction

Alexander Maas, Christopher Goemans, Dale Manning, Stephan Kroll, Thomas Brown
2017 Games and Economic Behavior  
Experimental results suggest that uncertainty reduces coordination in this type of CPR setting and increases the likelihood of resource destruction.  ...  In the model, two Nash Equilibria exist, both of which lead to a Tragedy of the Commons, but one is an inferior solution because it leads to assured resource destruction.  ...  Acknowledgments This research was funded by the Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.geb.2017.06.009 fatcat:76txagxhxfesbjpckgsn6t5siy

Are Choice Experiment Treatments of Outcome Uncertainty Sufficient? An Application to Climate Risk Reductions

Christos Makriyannis, Robert J. Johnston, Adam W. Whelchel
2018 Agricultural and Resource Economics Review  
Choice experiments addressing outcome uncertainty (OU) typically reframe continuous probability densities for each risky outcome into two discrete categories, each with a single probability of occurrence  ...  Results for a case study of coastal flood adaptation in Connecticut, United States, suggest that higher-resolution OU treatments increase choice complexity but can provide additional information on risk  ...  Are Choice Experiment Treatments of Outcome Uncertainty Sufficient? 443 Makriyannis, et al. Are Choice Experiment Treatments of Outcome Uncertainty Sufficient?  ... 
doi:10.1017/age.2017.27 fatcat:qq2rpahnyfdfzdrmr5o4qqhdd4

Bayesian Solution Uncertainty Quantification for Differential Equations [article]

Oksana A. Chkrebtii, David A. Campbell, Ben Calderhead, Mark A. Girolami
2016 arXiv   pre-print
Within the calibration problem, discretization uncertainty defines a layer in the Bayesian hierarchy, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that targets this posterior distribution is presented.  ...  The discussion outlines implications for the new field of probabilistic numerics.  ...  Although the long term behaviour of such systems is entrenched in the initial states, the presence of numerical discretization error introduces small perturbations which eventually lead to exponential  ... 
arXiv:1306.2365v5 fatcat:cimlhtpw45hibltx2ujz6v2yfa

Numerical Methods for Flow in Fractured Porous Media [article]

Luca Formaggia, Anna Scotti, Alessio Fumagalli
2020 arXiv   pre-print
An overview of the most common approaches is considered, which includes continuous fracture models and discrete fracture models.  ...  For the latter, we discuss strategies that are developed in literature for its numerical solution mainly related to the geometrical relation between the fractures and porous media grids.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge Davide Losapio for his help in the research underlying this manuscript. Cross-References  ... 
arXiv:2003.14279v1 fatcat:zfzxwdqc7rbhnpvafooj4ew6wq

A Bayesian approach to estimating the uncertainty in the distribution of Cronobacter spp. in powdered infant formula arising from microbiological criteria test outcomes

Friedrich von Westerholt, Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Francis Butler
2016 Microbial Risk Analysis  
Choice of the prior distribution influenced the level of uncertainty.  ...  This paper developed a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty in the concentration of Cronobacter spp. clusters that may be present in a batch of PIF depending on the outcome of a sampling plan.  ...  Acknowledgements This work was funded under the Irish Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine Food Institutional Research Measure (Research contract number 13/F/423 ).  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.mran.2016.08.002 fatcat:yyat73czq5abpdb3vsewiuv7ea

Dynamic optimization of batch processes

B. Srinivasan, D. Bonvin, E. Visser, S. Palanki
2003 Computers and Chemical Engineering  
The main bottleneck in using optimization at the industrial level is the presence of uncertainty in the form of model mismatch and disturbances.  ...  The way uncertainty can be handled constitutes the subject of this series of two papers.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Dr P.  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0098-1354(02)00117-5 fatcat:74dk34nydrh7pi57td4bntqvse
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