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Detecting Change Signs with Differential MDL Change Statistics for COVID-19 Pandemic Analysis [article]

Kenji Yamanishi, Linchuan Xu, Ryo Yuki, Shintaro Fukushima, Chuan-hao Lin
2021 arXiv   pre-print
We are concerned with the issue of detecting changes and their signs from a data stream.  ...  We first give a fundamental theory for D-MDL. We then demonstrate its effectiveness using synthetic datasets. We apply it to detecting early warning signals of the COVID-19 epidemic.  ...  For example, when given time series of the number of COVID-19 cases in a country, we may expect to warn the beginning of an epidemic by detecting changes and their signs.  ... 
arXiv:2007.15179v2 fatcat:wqnizowxzrhbbogydpxzddl3s4

Inferring the actual urban road environment from traffic sign data using a minimum description length approach

Zoltán Fazekas, Gábor Balázs, László Gerencsér, Péter Gáspár
2017 Transportation Research Procedia  
In our paper, we focus on a group of traffic signs and use traffic sign logs to statistically infer the type of urban environment in which a car is being driven.  ...  Abstract In our paper, we focus on a group of traffic signs and use traffic sign logs to statistically infer the type of urban environment in which a car is being driven.  ...  Acknowledgements The work presented was supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund through project 'SEPPAC: Safety and Economic Platform for Partially Automated Commercial Vehicles  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2017.12.055 fatcat:qzwcootuvje4nl75ekwhrinanq

Adaptive communication among collaborative agents: preliminary results with symbol grounding

Yoosook Lee, Travis Collier, C. Taylor, Jason Riggle, Edward Stabler
2004 Artificial Life and Robotics  
The second system uses the minimum description length framework to distinguish patterns of robot movement as a model of grounding actions. their environment and to evolve a language that will enable them  ...  The first system classifies auditory input from frog calls and is presented as a model of grounding objects.  ...  Acknowledgments We thank Richard Brooks and David Friedlander for discussion and use of their robot data, Hanbiao Wang provided helpful suggestions for analysis of the frog data.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10015-004-0299-3 fatcat:itg6zqxdurcf7ombklmjzo46vq

Adaptive communication among collaborative agents: preliminary results with symbol grounding

Yoosook Lee, Travis Collier, C. Taylor, Jason Riggle, Edward Stabler
2004 Artificial Life and Robotics  
The second system uses the minimum description length framework to distinguish patterns of robot movement as a model of grounding actions. their environment and to evolve a language that will enable them  ...  The first system classifies auditory input from frog calls and is presented as a model of grounding objects.  ...  Acknowledgments We thank Richard Brooks and David Friedlander for discussion and use of their robot data, Hanbiao Wang provided helpful suggestions for analysis of the frog data.  ... 
doi:10.1007/bf02678880 fatcat:ap7bljqzx5d7hafkfhmu6jgw6u

Vehicle trajectory prediction based on motion model and maneuver recognition

Adam Houenou, Philippe Bonnifait, Veronique Cherfaoui, Wen Yao
2013 2013 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems  
This paper presents a new trajectory prediction method which combines a trajectory prediction based on Constant Yaw Rate and Acceleration motion model and a trajectory prediction based on maneuver recognition  ...  The overall approach was tested on prerecorded human real driving data and results show that the Maneuver Recognition Module has a high success rate and that the final trajectory prediction has a better  ...  The MRM is based on an early detection of the lane where the driver is intending to go (or stay).  ... 
doi:10.1109/iros.2013.6696982 dblp:conf/iros/HouenouBCY13 fatcat:ckng7acn6zea5k4ukoiswo2xcm

Detecting Metachanges in Data Streams from the Viewpoint of the MDL Principle

Shintaro Fukushima, Kenji Yamanishi
2019 Entropy  
It is practically important to detect metachanges because they may be early warning signals of important events.  ...  A metachange refers to a change in patterns of when and how changes occur, referred to as "metachanges along time" and "metachanges along state", respectively.  ...  It is practically important to detect metachanges because they may be early warning signals of important events [12, 13] . Metachanges have been treated from a viewpoint of metachanges along time.  ... 
doi:10.3390/e21121134 fatcat:ok5x37tlurgblav6vletpvic2y

Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea around 2002/03

Yao Ha, Zhong Zhong
2015 Journal of Climate  
This study investigates the decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS) in the boreal summer (June-August) since the early 1990s and explores possible causes behind  ...  regions between 608 and 808E and around 1508E, respectively.  ...  Lund in Clemson University for his suggestions on the method of changepoint detection. We are also grateful to Professor Kevin J. E. Walsh and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.  ... 
doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00769.1 fatcat:psrx33pfeffdrkjz6nhiah3hua

Report

1997 Journal of the American Society for Mass Spectrometry  
Acknowledgment The Workshop organizers wish to thank Cindi Lilly of the ASMS office for the excellent arrangements and infrastructure provided.  ...  Limits of detection and of quantitation were determined using a conservative signal-to-noise criterion, rather than an MDL based on statistical considerations (Statistical Models for Detection Limits).  ...  Statistical Models for Detection Limits Every analyst understands the concept of "detection limit" for an analytical procedure in a general way as the smallest quantity of analyte that yields a signal  ... 
doi:10.1016/s1044-0305(97)00149-9 fatcat:m7nhmkcb4velncfoxrldetogni

Microbial fuel cells for in-field water quality monitoring

Lola Gonzalez Olias, Mirella Di Lorenzo
2021 RSC Advances  
Overview of challenges and opportunities in microbial fuel cells for in-field operation.  ...  Acknowledgements This work was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/L016214/1).  ...  MFC sensors could therefore work as early warning systems for hypoxic events. 72 Sediment MFCs can also be used as early warning tools for toxicity events, and in particular to monitor the presence  ... 
doi:10.1039/d1ra01138c fatcat:pcdqwfcu4vbpdenf6iu22g6ska

A Machine Learning Approach to the Detection of Fetal Hypoxia during Labor and Delivery

Philip A. Warrick, Emily F. Hamilton, Robert E. Kearney, Doina Precup
2012 The AI Magazine  
The key idea is to learn models of the fetal response to signals from its environment. Then, we use the parameters of these models as attributes in a binary classification problem.  ...  Labor monitoring is crucial in modern health care, as it can be used to detect (and help avoid) significant problems with the fetus.  ...  Acknowledgements This research was funded in part by the National Science and Engineering Council (NSERC) and by LMS Medical Systems Ltd. (acquired by PeriGen in 2009).  ... 
doi:10.1609/aimag.v33i2.2412 fatcat:xiphlr7oxzfr3kfz4lgn5eefri

Quantifying Systemic Risk by Solutions of the Mean-Variance Risk Model

Jan Jurczyk, Alexander Eckrot, Ingo Morgenstern, Wei-Xing Zhou
2016 PLoS ONE  
Changes in the behaviour of the average investor is utlilized as a early warning sign.  ...  We study 37 different US indices which cover almost all aspects of the US economy and show that monitoring an average investor's behaviour can be used to quantify times of increased risk.  ...  A change in the behaviour of an average investor can be used as an early warning sign [42] . This idea is exploited by Eq (6).  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0158444 pmid:27351482 pmcid:PMC4924827 fatcat:ajwv2oax5rfszdvhbnk4yoj2im

Autoregressive Order Selection for Rotating Machinery

Suguna Thanagasundram, Fernando Soares Schlindwein
2006 International Journal of Acoustics and Vibration  
Traditional model order selection criteria, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Finite Information Criterion (FPE), Minimum Description Length (MDL), Criterion Autoregressive Transfer-function (CAT), and  ...  These asymptotic criteria for model order estimation are functions of the prediction error and the optimal order of an AR model is chosen as the minimum of this function.  ...  One way of achieving this is to use time domain analysis, 1 where statistical parameters are computed and compared with baseline figures, as a change in these parameters may indicate imminent malfunction  ... 
doi:10.20855/ijav.2006.11.3199 fatcat:nnx7amilebderbfrhkq3d5jpqe

Dysregulated biodynamics in metabolic attractor systems precede the emergence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Paul Curtin, Christine Austin, Austen Curtin, Chris Gennings, Claudia Figueroa-Romero, Kristen A Mikhail, Tatiana M Botero, Stephen A Goutman, Eva L Feldman, Manish Arora
2020 PLoS Computational Biology  
Mechanistic analysis was undertaken in a transgenic mouse model of ALS, where we find similar marked disruptions in elemental attractor systems as in humans.  ...  and consistent transitions between stable and unstable states throughout development.  ...  Acknowledgments We are grateful to the study participants and their families attending the University of Michigan ALS Clinic in collaboration with the Michigan ALS Consortium; the Michigan Institute for  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007773 pmid:32294079 pmcid:PMC7159190 fatcat:dnkx5k6unrcr3cyhmrp6la7pja

Conceptual design of a flight validation mission for a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle

Brent W. Barbee, Bong Wie, Mark Steiner, Kenneth Getzandanner
2015 Acta Astronautica  
Ongoing and future research topics are discussed following the presentation of the detailed flight validation mission design results produced in the MDL.  ...  In this paper we provide background on the hazard posed to Earth by NEOs and present the results of a recent study performed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's Mission Design Lab (MDL) in collaboration  ...  For example, with 3 sensors providing impact detection signals (to be used as the NED fire command) and the signals being OR'ed, the reliability of each signal would need to be better than 95%.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2014.10.043 fatcat:mvbysadmdzhtbenlkl5nnp33w4

Dengue virus infection increases microglial cell migration

Ming-Kai Jhan, Tsung-Ting Tsai, Chia-Ling Chen, Cheng-Chieh Tsai, Yi-Lin Cheng, Yi-Chao Lee, Chiung-Yuan Ko, Yee-Shin Lin, Chih-Peng Chang, Liang-Tzung Lin, Chiou-Feng Lin
2017 Scientific Reports  
Although the viral genome, proteins, and particles can be detected in the brains of fatal dengue patients 4-6 and experimentally infected mice 7, 8 , the targeting of DENV-infected cells and their effects  ...  However, this model utilized an adapted neuroinvasive and neurovirulent strain of DENV.  ...  This study is supported by grants from the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST102-2628-B-038-011-MY3, 105-2321-B-038-002, 105-2811-B-038-026, and 106-2321-B-038-002), Taipei, Taiwan.  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00182-z pmid:28273893 pmcid:PMC5427823 fatcat:4322lg425vdk7ffzrvbn462yzy
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