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Designing Markets for Prediction

Yiling Chen, David M. Pennock
2010 The AI Magazine  
We survey the literature on prediction mechanisms, including prediction markets and peer prediction systems.  ...  We pay particular attention to the design process, highlighting the objectives and properties that are important in the design of good prediction mechanisms.  ...  In particular, many automated market maker mechanisms have been designed to provide (effectively in nite) liquidity for prediction markets; much effort has been put into understanding manipulation in prediction  ... 
doi:10.1609/aimag.v31i4.2313 fatcat:53kpobhmw5fd3man2ta4dpzv7y

A Unified Framework for Dynamic Prediction Market Design

Shipra Agrawal, Erick Delage, Mark Peters, Zizhuo Wang, Yinyu Ye
2011 Operations Research  
Thus, our work provides an effective tool for designing new prediction market mechanisms.  ...  In addition to unifying and explaining the existing mechanisms, we use the generalized framework to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for many desirable properties of a prediction market mechanism  ...  In Section 6, we close the paper with a summary of our contributions for prediction market design and implications on design of online trading markets in general.  ... 
doi:10.1287/opre.1110.0922 fatcat:kevla7s35jeklcgcmvl7lnsjti

Adaptive Filter Design for Stock Market Prediction Using a Correlation-based Criterion [article]

J.E. Wesen, V.VV. Vermehren, H.M. de Oliveira
2015 arXiv   pre-print
This paper presents a novel adaptive-filter approach for predicting assets on the stock markets.  ...  This approach is applied, as an example, through the prediction over the actual valuation of the PETR3 shares (Petrobras ON) traded in the Brazilian Stock Market.  ...  This helps in the design of a suitable predictor for the Brazilian Stock Market (PETR3) by adaptive filtering.  ... 
arXiv:1501.07504v1 fatcat:dbttiqp2evdtdjwqyiyekrli4e

Designing Online Information Aggregation and Prediction Markets for MBA Courses

Daphne R. Raban, Dorit Geifman
2009 Interdisciplinary Journal of e-Skills and Lifelong Learning  
In class, three types of preconceived markets are implemented in order to expose the students to the versatility of the tool: prediction markets, information aggregation markets, and opinion markets.  ...  The hands-on activity was found to be essential for enhancing the understanding of this complex topic, and it added interest and excitement to the lessons.  ...  Acknowledgement The authors wish to thank for their continued support of the Prediction Markets activity in our school  ... 
doi:10.28945/76 fatcat:56iogwjp5ndrrgcokhy6b5d7ce

Statistical Time and Market Predictive Engineering Design (STAMPED) Techniques for Aerospace System Preliminary Design

Ronald M Barrett
2014 Journal of Aeronautics & Aerospace Engineering  
However, the major difference is that global market preference and their projections into the future result in the selection of the final design point.  ...  the principles laid out in [1] is that from the analysis of Figure 4 , variables like maximum lift coefficients and parasite area are no longer "estimated, " but can now be determined by examining market  ...  Statistical Time and Market Predictive Engineering Design (STAMPED) engineering techniques allow the guesswork of simply selecting suitable ranges of variables to be eliminated.  ... 
doi:10.4172/2168-9792.1000e121 fatcat:u52jmwxskfddhphjq3mxcquaui

Predicting Preferences for Innovative Design: The "Repeated Evaluation Technique" (RET)

Claus-Christian Carbon
2015 GfK Marketing Intelligence Review  
Subjects in an RET, for example, typical consumers, are encouraged to think explicitly and intensively about a product and its competitors.  ...  The "Repeated Evaluation Technique" (RET) was developed especially for the purpose of systematic familiarization with products to be evaluated.  ...  Predicting whether an innovation will align with the tastes and needs of consumers presents a very specific challenge for market and consumer research.  ... 
doi:10.1515/gfkmir-2015-0016 fatcat:6yl3gf4aarbx7okwednpchzxtu

Statistical Time and Market Predictive Engineering Design (STAMPED) Techniques for Aerospace Preliminary Design: Regional Turboprop Application

Ronald M Barrett
2014 Journal of Aeronautics & Aerospace Engineering  
This Statistical Time and Market Predictive Engineering Design (STAMPED) method as it accounts for the effects of highly nonlinear and dubiously predictable weights (like interiors).  ...  The first step in using STAMPED techniques for simply sizing an aircraft is to analyze the engineering variable of interest along with the market.  ...  This Statistical Time and Market Predictive Engineering Design (STAMPED) method as it accounts for the effects of highly nonlinear and dubiously predictable weights (like interiors).  ... 
doi:10.4172/2168-9792.1000135 fatcat:ifsn63mj7vgjvn3vwkit37kbym

Predictive Model Markets: Design Principles for Managing Enterprise-Level Advanced Analytics

Sule Balkan, Michael Goul
2010 International Conference on Information Systems  
This paper examines design possibilities for building experimental markets that can ultimately be used to test whether predictive-model markets will improve model selection and deployment.  ...  One way to optimize model selection is to tap the combined knowledge of company staff through a "prediction market," a virtual market designed to reveal participants' aggregate wisdom by seeing where people  ...  Experimental Design In order to advance design principles for predictive-model markets, we examine several properties.  ... 
dblp:conf/icis/BalkanG10 fatcat:ylxg5l5d6nbjtbpb5c645yhfq4

Predicting product co-consideration and market competitions for technology-driven product design: a network-based approach

Mingxian Wang, Zhenghui Sha, Yun Huang, Noshir Contractor, Yan Fu, Wei Chen
2018 Design Science  
The case study provides vehicle engineers with insights into the change of market competitions brought by technological developments and thereby supports attribute decision-making in vehicle design.  ...  between customers' consideration preferences and product attributes as well as customer demographics; (3) It enables the prediction of market competitions in response to potential technological changes  ...  different vehicle models and brands, and (c) for guiding auto companies to create marketing plans and product design strategies in preparation for new technology scenarios.  ... 
doi:10.1017/dsj.2018.4 fatcat:garisfsoczf27ltonhnrzrdfzm

Designing an Optimal Portfolio for Iran's Stock Market with Genetic Algorithm using Neural Network Prediction of Risk and Return Stocks [article]

Masoud Fekri, Babak Barazandeh
2019 arXiv   pre-print
Finally, 8 different portfolios with low, medium and high risks for different type of investors (risk-averse or risk taker) using genetic algorithm will be designed and analyzed.  ...  In this paper, we will present an optimal portfolio based the Markowitz Mean-Variance-Skewness with weight constraints model for short-term investment opportunities in Iran's stock market.  ...  Using this experiment design, we use this for both 66 stocks and 5 indices per and . E.  ... 
arXiv:1903.06632v1 fatcat:s6zvhofiyvhmfe42ulqweljj7q

Precise Stock Price Prediction for Robust Portfolio Design from Selected Sectors of the Indian Stock Market [article]

Jaydip Sen, Ashwin Kumar R S, Geetha Joseph, Kaushik Muthukrishnan, Koushik Tulasi, Praveen Varukolu
2022 arXiv   pre-print
In this project, we have built an efficient portfolio and to predict the future asset value by means of individual stock price prediction of the stocks in the portfolio.  ...  Stock price prediction is a challenging task and a lot of propositions exist in the literature in this area.  ...  prediction using machine learning and deep learning frameworks'(Sen), 'Decomposition of time series data of stock markets and its implications for prediction -An application for the Indian Auto sector'  ... 
arXiv:2201.05570v1 fatcat:yccdw4ofz5bhfgrb32t6sa3t3q

Design and Simulation-Based Testing of a Prediction Market System Using SIPS for Demand Forecasting [chapter]

Hajime Mizuyama
2013 IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology  
Self-adjustable interval prediction securities (SIPS) are newly proposed prediction securities that are suitable for market-based demand forecasting.  ...  This paper first designs a prediction market system using SIPS equipped with a central market maker and then confirms how the system operates through agent-based simulation.  ...  This research was partially supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) 20310087.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-642-40352-1_64 fatcat:xguds7xgtfasbbph5nkbfwceai

A Distributed Economic Model Predictive Control Design for a Transactive Energy Market Platform in Lebanon, NH [article]

Steffi Olesi Muhanji and Samuel Golding and Tad Montgomery and Clifton Below and Amro M. Farid
2020 arXiv   pre-print
This paper presents a Distributed Economic Model Predictive control (DEMPC) algorithm for the electric power distribution system using the augmented lagrangian alternating direction inexact newton (ALADIN  ...  Engaging the demand-side with control structures that leverage the benefits of integral social and retail market engagement from individual electricity consumers through active community-level coordination  ...  NUMERICAL DEMONSTRATION OF CONVERGENCE The goal of this section is to demonstrate the distributed economic model predictive control design as a potential transactive energy market platform for the City  ... 
arXiv:2012.04058v1 fatcat:rwbfmg3swbeevezc7zpbum3jxu

Gut Liking for the Ordinary: How Product Design Features Help Predict Car Sales

Jan R. Landwehr, Aparna A. Labroo, Patricia C. Ellison, Andreas Herrmann
2013 GfK Marketing Intelligence Review  
In many markets, design is one of the key factors in determining a product's success.  ...  The authors show that visual design plays a major role in a product's success in the automobile market.  ...  Insights for Product Design Management > Design variables help to predict sales of new products /// The results of the sales forecasting analysis suggest that visual design plays a major role in a product's  ... 
doi:10.2478/gfkmir-2014-0025 fatcat:yj2vy4ttpbgbjptybh2drzp4xm

Review for Optimisation of Neural Networks With Genetic Algorithms and Design of Experiments in Stock Market Prediction

Yunus Emre Midilli, Sergei Parshutin
2019 Information Technology and Management Science  
This paper proposes a literature review of two techniques to optimize neural networks in stock market predictions: genetic algorithms and design of experiments.  ...  Neural networks are commonly used methods in stock market predictions.  ...  The experiment was run for the design of MLP that was utilised to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Index prices based on the defined technical indicators.  ... 
doi:10.7250/itms-2019-0003 fatcat:fat7y5ypsneutego6ydo74tkla
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