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Trust Issues: Uncertainty Estimation Does Not Enable Reliable OOD Detection On Medical Tabular Data [article]

Dennis Ulmer, Lotta Meijerink, Giovanni Cinà
2020 arXiv   pre-print
When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to
more » ... ermine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.
arXiv:2011.03274v1 fatcat:mgukmgna6re7folppuxzg7g35u

deep-significance - Easy and Meaningful Statistical Significance Testing in the Age of Neural Networks [article]

Dennis Ulmer, Christian Hardmeier, Jes Frellsen
2022 arXiv   pre-print
A lot of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) research is of an empirical nature. Nevertheless, statistical significance testing (SST) is still not widely used. This endangers true progress, as seeming improvements over a baseline might be statistical flukes, leading follow-up research astray while wasting human and computational resources. Here, we provide an easy-to-use package containing different significance tests and utility functions specifically tailored towards research needs and usability.
arXiv:2204.06815v1 fatcat:zblb6acninbplntpjyfn7btwuu

Behavioral health mediators of the link between posttraumatic stress disorder and dyslipidemia

Paul A. Dennis, Christi S. Ulmer, Patrick S. Calhoun, Andrew Sherwood, Lana L. Watkins, Michelle F. Dennis, Jean C. Beckham
2014 Journal of Psychosomatic Research  
Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been linked to dyslipidemia, which is a major risk factor for coronary artery disease. Although this link is thought to reflect response to heightened stress, behavioral health risks, including smoking, alcohol dependence, and poor sleep quality, may mediate the relationship between PTSD and dyslipidemia. To test this hypothesis, serum lipid levels were collected from 220 young adults (18-39 years old), 103 of whom were diagnosed with PTSD. PTSD and
more » ... iated depressive symptoms were negatively related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), p=.04, and positively related to triglyceride (TG) levels, p=.04. Both associations were mediated by cigarette consumption and poor sleep quality, the latter of which accounted for 83% and 93% of the effect of PTSD and depression on HDL-C and TG, respectively. These results complement recent findings highlighting the prominence of health behaviors in linking PTSD with cardiovascular risk.
doi:10.1016/j.jpsychores.2014.05.001 pmid:24913341 pmcid:PMC4120708 fatcat:wl4vtog4hzarloagscmgj2tb6q

Experimental Standards for Deep Learning Research: A Natural Language Processing Perspective [article]

Dennis Ulmer, Elisa Bassignana, Max Müller-Eberstein, Daniel Varab, Mike Zhang, Christian Hardmeier, Barbara Plank
2022 arXiv   pre-print
., 2017; Ulmer, 2021) .  ... 
arXiv:2204.06251v1 fatcat:viykabywg5hvfokgezglsdcjiu

A Survey on Evidential Deep Learning For Single-Pass Uncertainty Estimation [article]

Dennis Ulmer
2021 arXiv   pre-print
., 2019; Ulmer & Cinà, 2020) and lacking calibration in practice (Guo et al., 2017) .  ... 
arXiv:2110.03051v2 fatcat:nau5qmqvwrebfgmzk4edkzpbbe

Assessing Incrementality in Sequence-to-Sequence Models

Dennis Ulmer, Dieuwke Hupkes, Elia Bruni
2019 Proceedings of the 4th Workshop on Representation Learning for NLP (RepL4NLP-2019)  
Since their inception, encoder-decoder models have successfully been applied to a wide array of problems in computational linguistics. The most recent successes are predominantly due to the use of different variations of attention mechanisms, but their cognitive plausibility is questionable. In particular, because past representations can be revisited at any point in time, attention-centric methods seem to lack an incentive to build up incrementally more informative representations of incoming
more » ... entences. This way of processing stands in stark contrast with the way in which humans are believed to process language: continuously and rapidly integrating new information as it is encountered. In this work, we propose three novel metrics to assess the behavior of RNNs with and without an attention mechanism and identify key differences in the way the different model types process sentences.
doi:10.18653/v1/w19-4324 dblp:conf/rep4nlp/UlmerHB19 fatcat:nn34zzcp2nc7hcbhwksmtlifz4

Nocturnal Blood Pressure Non-Dipping, Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, and Sleep Quality in Women

Christi S. Ulmer, Patrick S. Calhoun, Hayden B. Bosworth, Michelle F. Dennis, Jean C. Beckham
2013 Behavioral Medicine  
Background-Women with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have poor sleep quality and increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Non-dipping of nocturnal blood pressure may be an explanatory factor for the relationship between sleep and CVD found in previous research. Purpose-The current study was designed to determine if non-dipping nocturnal blood pressure was associated with trauma exposure, PTSD diagnosis, PTSD symptoms, and sleep quality in a sample of women. Methods-Participants
more » ... leted 24 hours of ABPM and self-report questionnaires. Nondipping was defined as less than 10% reduction in blood pressure during sleep. Results-The frequency of non-dippers did not differ by diagnostic status (d=.15). However, non-dippers endorsed more traumatic event categories (d=.53), more PTSD hyperarousal symptoms (d=.53), poorer overall sleep quality (d=.59), more frequent use of sleep medication (d=.62), greater sleep-related daytime dysfunction (d=.58), and longer sleep onset latencies (d=. 55) than dippers. Conclusions-Increased attention to nocturnal blood pressure variation may be needed to improve blood pressure control in trauma-exposed women.
doi:10.1080/08964289.2013.813434 pmid:24236808 pmcid:PMC3964784 fatcat:tczvamgfz5febo6igd5bsbj2oe

Ecotin is a potent inhibitor of the contact system proteases factor XIIa and plasma kallikrein

Jana S. Ulmer, Robert N. Lindquist, Mark S. Dennis, Robert A. Lazarus
1995 FEBS Letters  
Ecotin, a serine protease inhibitor found in the periplasm of Escherichia coli, has been characterized as a potent reversible tight-binding inhibitor of the human contact activation proteases factor XIIa (FXIIa) and plasma kallikrein, having K i values of 89 pM and 163 pM, respectively. Ecotin also inhibited human leukocyte elastase (HLE) with high affinity (Ki = 55 pM). The association rate constants ko, for FXIIa and kallikrein were 5.3 × l0 s M -t .s -1 and 2.9 × 105 M -1 "s -~,
more » ... The dissociation rate constant kon for kallikrein, measured in the presence of HLE to prevent reassociation, was 6.3 × 10 -s s-~; the koff for ecotin with FXIIa was 4.7 x 10 -s s -~. Both FXIIa and kallikrein cleaved ecotin slowly at pH 5.0, identifying Met-84 as the P~ residue. The potent anticoagulant effect by ecotin is explained by the coincident inhibition of FXIIa, kallikrein, and FXa and suggests that it may be useful in the study of inflammatory or thrombotic disorders such as sepsis or cardiopulmonary bypass.
doi:10.1016/0014-5793(95)00466-m pmid:7781771 fatcat:jwwjrhzflfdrlcrzcvtf47l65a

Structural Elucidation and Monokine-inducing Activity of Two Biologically Active Zwitterionic Glycosphingolipids Derived from the Porcine Parasitic NematodeAscaris suum

Günter Lochnit, Roger D. Dennis, Artur J. Ulmer, Rudolf Geyer
1998 Journal of Biological Chemistry  
Dennis, Artur J.  ...  Ulmer and Rudolf Geyer Ascaris suum Zwitterionic Glycosphingolipids Derived from the Porcine Parasitic Nematode Structural Elucidation and Monokine-inducing Activity of Two Biologically Active  ... 
doi:10.1074/jbc.273.1.466 pmid:9417105 fatcat:ygcg3jytebfevbtvgbgp3uvxe4

Know Your Limits: Uncertainty Estimation with ReLU Classifiers Fails at Reliable OOD Detection [article]

Dennis Ulmer, Giovanni Cinà
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Dennis Ulmer implemented the code to run experiments and create plots and illustrations in this work.  ...  Dennis Ulmer, Lotta Meijerink, and Giovanni Cinà. Trust issues: Uncertainty estimation does not enable reliable ood detection on medical tabular data.  ...  This approach is in line with recent experiments on covariate shift and OOD detection [Ovadia et al., 2019 , Ulmer et al., 2020 .  ... 
arXiv:2012.05329v4 fatcat:2o6wmk3hg5h67bcynmlvffcdhq

Page 305 of Iowa State Journal of Research Vol. 53, Issue 4 [page]

1979 Iowa State Journal of Research  
Longus Fredrickson and Ulmer, 1967; and I. foliusS Fredrickson and Ulmer, 1967).  ...  IOWA STATE JOURNAL OF RESEARCH / MAY, 1979 Vol. 53, No. 4 SEASONAL INCIDENCE OF Isoglaridacrts wisconsinensis (CESTODA: CARYOPHYLLAEIDAE) IN ITS FISH HOST Dennis D. Williams ABSTRACT.  ... 

Page 401 of Iowa State Journal of Research Vol. 52, Issue 4 [page]

1978 Iowa State Journal of Research  
McCrae (1965), Calentine and Mackiewicz (1966), Fredrickson and Ulmer (1967), and Williams and Ulmer (1971).  ...  IOWA STATE JOURNAL OF RESEARCH / MAY, 1978 401-409 Vol. 52, No. 4 A KEY TO CARYOPHYLLIDEAN CESTODES OF IOWA FISHES Dennis D. Williams} ABSTRACT.  ... 

Page 475 of Florida Bar Journal Vol. 53, Issue 8 [page]

1979 Florida Bar Journal  
ULMER. HERMAN . 904-354-5652 STE 1600 ATLANTIC BK BLDGtP 0 BOX 479 .. JACKSONVILLE 32201 . ULMER. HERMAN .JR . 904-354-5652 STE 1600 ATLANTIC BK BLOG. P 0 BOX 479 .. JACKSONVILLE 32201 . ULMER.  ...  DENNIS NICHOLAS ....305-547-7306 6623 SW 61ST T ERRACE. SOUTH MIAMI 33143 . JRCHISIN. WALTER . 305-427-7211 P 0 DRAWER AA . DRUMMOND BLOG 201 N FED HWY . DEERFIELD BEACH 33441 .  ... 

Page 70 of American Chemical Society. Journal of the American Chemical Society Vol. 20, Issue [page]

1898 American Chemical Society. Journal of the American Chemical Society  
Dennis, L. M., care Falck & Co., Lucerne, Switzerland. Dortch, F. W., 909 Main St., Little Rock, Ark.  ...  Ulmer, Geo. F., 543 Massachusetts Ave., Boston, Mass. NEW MEMBERS ELECTED JUNE 14, 1898. Beck, Herbert H., 20 S. Prince St., Lancaster, Pa. Bragg, Charlotte A., Wellesley College, Wellesley, Mass.  ... 

Applied Grammatology Gregory L. Ulmer

James Roy MacBean
1985 Film quarterly  
Textbooks DeNitto, Dennis. Film: Form and Feeling. New York: Harper & Row, 1985. A textbook aimed at elementary courses, and including analyses of 18 classic films.  ...  As for Ulmer, he merely reiterates Eisenstein's own terms, then buttresses them with quotes from contemporary theorists such as Paul Willemen, Stephen Heath and Marie Ropars-Wuilleumier.  ... 
doi:10.2307/1212423 fatcat:gvahk6bxsncu3k6wp4a4uswbem
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