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Defending Against Speculative Attacks: Reputation, Learning, and Coordination

Chong Huang
2011 Social Science Research Network  
By defending against speculative attacks, it can build a reputation of defending, which may deter future attacks.  ...  Once speculators attack, they attack frequently and infinitely often. Consequently, the central bank has no incentive to build a reputation and abandons the currency peg almost surely.  ...  Define the policy maker's reputation as the public belief about θ = H, then the weak policy maker can build her reputation by defending the status quo against attacks.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1960673 fatcat:zaeewtzngvcw5edsdxyvrkdbyi

Defending Against Speculative Attacks: Reputation, Learning, and Coordination

Chong Huang
2011 Social Science Research Network  
By defending against speculative attacks, it can build a reputation of defending, which may deter future attacks.  ...  Once speculators attack, they attack frequently and infinitely often. Consequently, the central bank has no incentive to build a reputation and abandons the currency peg almost surely.  ...  Define the policy maker's reputation as the public belief about θ = H, then the weak policy maker can build her reputation by defending the status quo against attacks.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2022028 fatcat:ktkxtke4xfcipp33khben62aka

Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks

Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz, Bernard Dumas, Axel Weber
1995 Economic Policy: A European Forum  
against attacks.  ...  All this suggests that governments are less able to defend themselves against speculative pressures during cyclical contractions.  ... 
doi:10.2307/1344591 fatcat:3gt6qz2t3bhptlmyvnymoqfsyi

Transparency, reputation, and credibility under floating and pegged exchange rates

Berthold Herrendorf
1999 Journal of International Economics  
In contrast, since the exchange rate can be perfectly controlled, pegging resolves the private information problem, is more transparent, and makes reputation more effective.  ...  This paper shows that if the cost of importing foreign inflation and real exchange rate shocks are not too high, then the equilibrium nominal exchange rate regime for a country with a credibility problem  ...  during 1995 at the EEA Congress, European University Institute, Colloquia on Economic Research, the Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy, and Nova Lisboa.  ... 
doi:10.1016/s0022-1996(98)00060-9 fatcat:bzqme2iry5bj7emt6fzut5vqcm

Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics

Alex Weisiger, Keren Yarhi-Milo
2015 International Organization  
Although reputation is not all-important, leaders are well advised to consider the reputational implications of policy decisions in international conflict.  ...  AbstractPolicy-makers and political scientists have long believed that states must make policy with an eye to maintaining a good reputation, especially a good reputation for resolve.  ...  How exactly this is to be achieved is the subject of much speculation.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s0020818314000393 fatcat:ttcp2gb7jfaxfgbvqmlu5vrfkm

Psychology and Deterrence

Raymond Tanter, Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, Janice Gross Stein
1988 American Political Science Review  
The authors would like to acknowledge the financial and intellectual support received from various quarters. The revising and rewriting process was substantially assisted by grants from the  ...  11 oth the attacking state and the defending state enjoy some advantages, but on balance the advantages of defending are greater.  ...  The Argentine press began to speculate about an invasion.  ... 
doi:10.2307/1958134 fatcat:klazd435ibabpi7tcx2ul6674e

Decision Theoretic Approaches to Experiment Design and External Validity

Abhijit V. Banerjee, Sylvain Chassang, Erik Snowberg
2016 Social Science Research Network  
Building on our recent work, this chapter begins by summarizing our framework for understanding the goals of experimenters, and applying this to re-randomization.  ...  We embrace this conclusion, and argue that in order to improve external validity, experimental research needs to create a space for structured speculation. JEL Classifications: C93, D70, D80  ...  By a reputational argument, this implies that speculative statements will not be cheap talk.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2770140 fatcat:ahlfbcukgrdujawahpqqfobz6a

Capture by Threat

Ernesto Dal Bó, Rafael Di Tella
2003 Journal of Political Economy  
In the absence of these groups, the policy maker's desire for reelection guarantees that good policies are implemented for every realization of the shock.  ...  When pressure groups can harass the policy maker, good policies will be chosen for only a subset of states of nature.  ...  attack the policy maker in the media.  ... 
doi:10.1086/376951 fatcat:pwrx5ccb65g7vfsplncyuulciq

Capture by Threat

Ernesto Dal Bo, Rafael Di Tella
2001 Social Science Research Network  
In the absence of these groups, the policy maker's desire for reelection guarantees that good policies are implemented for every realization of the shock.  ...  When pressure groups can harass the policy maker, good policies will be chosen for only a subset of states of nature.  ...  attack the policy maker in the media.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.269117 fatcat:ichpc3frxfenph2hefhypzwxj4

Analysis of Unintentional Insider Threats Deriving from Social Engineering Exploits

Frank L. Greitzer, Jeremy R. Strozer, Sholom Cohen, Andrew P. Moore, David Mundie, Jennifer Cowley
2014 2014 IEEE Security and Privacy Workshops  
Organizations often suffer harm from individuals who bear no malice against them but whose actions unintentionally expose the organizations to risk-the unintentional insider threat (UIT).  ...  The approach decomposes attacks into a sequence of phases, with the aim of making them easier to understand and defend against [34] .  ...  scam to open new opportunities for the social engineer attacker to execute further exploits against the organization.  ... 
doi:10.1109/spw.2014.39 dblp:conf/sp/GreitzerSCMMC14 fatcat:evihrggzj5gwpns2tisrij5yje

Risky Signals: The Political Costs of Exchange Rate Policy in Post-Communist Countries

Tanya Bagashka, Randall W. Stone
2013 International Studies Quarterly  
While an audience costs approach assumes that the punishment for reneging is automatic, we model the choice of exchange rate policy in the shadow of elections as a signaling game between voters and governments  ...  We test this hypothesis in the context of the post-Communist countries in the 1990s, and find that Left governments were more likely to fall if they reneged on exchange rate commitments, but Right governments  ...  the exchange rate parity when there was a speculative attack.  ... 
doi:10.1111/isqu.12018 fatcat:5h5gkwyi4zd3pipctixspl4gwa

Diplomatic Calculus in Anarchy: How Communication Matters

ROBERT F. TRAGER
2010 American Political Science Review  
, or adopting policies to drain the resources of states that menace them.  ...  The model relates the content and quality of diplomatic signals to the context of prior beliefs about intentions and strategic options.  ...  Thus, by the one-shot deviation property, the Target's strategy is optimal. We now turn to the optimality of the Deterrer's strategy in the Stage 1 subgame.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s0003055410000158 fatcat:bbkr5kvmincvzkqvx5lygi27ii

Using Financial Instruments to Transfer the Information Security Risks

Pankaj Pandey, Einar Snekkenes
2016 Future Internet  
In our analysis, we found that the information security derivatives can at least be a partial solution to the problems in the cyber-insurance markets.  ...  On the other hand, in theory, capital market-based financial instruments can provide a risk transfer mechanism with the ability to absorb the adverse impact of an information security event.  ...  Acknowledgments: This work is partly funded by the Center for Cyber and Information Security, Norway and partly from the Ph.D. research grant awarded by the Ministry of Education, Norway.  ... 
doi:10.3390/fi8020020 fatcat:bcjx3ax3znavze4xphofonujfa

A Special Aspect of Relevance: Countering Negative Inferences Associated with the Absence of Evidence

Stephen A. Saltzburg
1978 California Law Review  
as one of the robbers"'" and barred the jury from drawing "any conclusions or inferences or engag [ing] in any speculation as to the defendant's character or reputation on the basis of this testimony  ...  This Article assumes that all legal rules of exclusion are grounded in policy and that exclusion on "policy" grounds is improper unless some accepted legal some policy against inclusion outweighs the probative  ... 
doi:10.2307/3479904 fatcat:qigplj4p4zd6pod7uglue5g62y

Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Elements of Best Practice

Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, Cem Karacadag, Roberto Pereira Guimarães
2003 IMF Working Papers  
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.  ...  is a highly subjective exercise, and some degree of discretion is almost always necessary, though policy rules may serve as "rules of thumb,"  ...  attacks against the central bank (Sarno and Taylor, 2001) .  ... 
doi:10.5089/9781451857115.001 fatcat:xfvkbaluzrfu7gzcwjpd2fkgg4
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