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Deceptive Decision-Making Under Uncertainty [article]

Yagiz Savas, Christos K. Verginis, Ufuk Topcu
2021 arXiv   pre-print
By modeling the agent's behavior as a Markov decision process, we consider a setting where the agent aims to reach one of multiple potential goals while deceiving outside observers about its true goal.  ...  The proposed approach enables the agent to exhibit a variety of tunable deceptive behaviors while ensuring the satisfaction of probabilistic constraints on the behavior.  ...  In this paper, we develop a novel approach that enables autonomous systems to make deceptive decisions under uncertainty.  ... 
arXiv:2109.06740v1 fatcat:fbrkmxxgxngodhvq2obyye6taa

How people cope with uncertainty due to chance or deception

Yaacov Schul, Ruth Mayo, Eugene Burnstein, Naomi Yahalom
2007 Journal of Experimental Social Psychology  
If so, then people should behave diVerently when an uncertainty is attributed to chance (a non-human agency) or to deception (a human agency).  ...  Individuals who attributed uncertainty to deception were less likely to adopt the optimal rule-based strategy than those who attributed it to chance.  ...  Statistical versus clinical orientations to decision making under uncertainty Statistical prediction, in contrast, acknowledges the forecaster's ignorance.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2006.02.015 fatcat:eetjnsid5vgsnmkaynw6wcxkia

Information, decision-making and deception in games

Dongxu Li, Jose B. Cruz
2009 Decision Support Systems  
Modeling deception in a real-world conflict situation is usually difficult. For a better understanding, we study deception through a fundamental relationship between information and decision-making.  ...  Under a probabilistic framework, we consider a zero-sum game with an asymmetrical structure, where player 1 receives additional information and player 2 has the potential to inject deception.  ...  Army under Contract W911NF-05-C-0018 and in part by the U.S. Air Force (AFRL/AFOSR) under Grant F33615-01-2-3154.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.dss.2009.05.001 fatcat:ju4j6k5pyrfr5mq4z2n77avxou

Modeling self-deception within a decision-theoretic framework

Jonathan Y. Ito, David V. Pynadath, Stacy C. Marsella
2009 Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems  
Computational modeling of human belief maintenance and decision-making processes has become increasingly important for a wide range of applications.  ...  the determination of a desired belief state, the biasing of internal beliefs towards or away from this desired belief state, and the final decision-making process.  ...  Our model of self-deception is a psychologically inspired model of decision making under risk and uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10458-009-9096-7 fatcat:hvhtsg4mqnhk3n7puy3gj6ug3m

Neurophilosophical considerations on decision making: Pushing-up the frontiers without disregarding their foundations

Gabriel J. C. Mograbi
2013 Frontiers in Neuroscience  
Even the neural correlates of decision under uncertainty would be different from the ones present in decision under uncertainty.  ...  Under uncertainty, heuristic thinking would play a key role in an efficient decisional process.  ... 
doi:10.3389/fnins.2013.00261 pmid:24415995 pmcid:PMC3874469 fatcat:gohe7aifbbby5mikcoc7j5gar4

The Order of Knowledge and Robust Action. How to Deal with Economic Uncertainty?

Josef Falkinger
2016 Economics : the Open-Access, Open-Assessment e-Journal  
Abstract Uncertainty in economics is generated by "nature" but also by the model we use to "produce the future".  ...  This paper argues that an appropriate model for dealing with uncertainty keeps the knowledge required by the model from its user in line with the available knowledge.  ...  This points to a fundamental difference between decision making under risk and decision making under uncertainty.  ... 
doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2016-24 fatcat:oshbu65qircsleqzk4hax73mgy

Theoretical Background [chapter]

Ulrich G. Strunz
2021 FOM-Edition Research  
under uncertainty; "under uncertainty" refers to any decision-making process with the absence of known probabilities regarding events of the state-space.  ...  Decision-making under uncertainty does not necessarily benefit from logic and statistics according to Artinger, et al. (2015) .  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-658-33139-9_2 fatcat:54msneqxnfcyjkkrxmdw7t7ece

Unification Of Randomized Anomaly In Deception Detection Using Fuzzy Logic Under Uncertainty

S. Rajkumar, V. Narayani, Dr. S.P. Victor
2012 International Journal of Research in Computer Science  
We propose a research model which comprises Fuzzy logic, Uncertainty and Randomization.  ...  Identifying Deception in any mode of communication is a tedious process without using the proper tool for detecting those vulnerabilities.  ...  Thus Las vegas plays its vital role in decision making. D.  ... 
doi:10.7815/ijorcs.22.2012.016 fatcat:zaj66epe3jhf5nsxnzkdqigiqa

Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire: How Verbal Deception Cues Signal Deceptive Versus Honest Impression Management and Influence Interview Ratings

Roth, Lenke, Klehe, Ute-Christine, Willhardt, Gloria
2021 Personnel Assessment and Decisions  
Verbal deception cues (plausibility, verbal uncertainty) were coded from video recordings.  ...  Results supported the hypotheses: Deceptive IM directly raised interviewer ratings (intended positive signal) but lowered the responses' plausibility and enhanced verbal uncertainties (unintended negative  ...  Under the lying condition, interviewers indeed spotted participants who showed various deception cues.  ... 
doi:10.25035/pad.2021.01.007 doaj:a1445fc94ec94bff86115752dff22a20 fatcat:7uqymw2vnzgetavw5mvpin3vfy

Page 69 of Educational Administration Abstracts Vol. 23, Issue 1 [page]

1988 Educational Administration Abstracts  
Deciding: self-deception in life choices. New York: Methuen, 1987, 170 pp. $19.95 DECISION MAKING. PSYCHOLOGY. RESEARCH MODELS.  ...  This volume examines decisions and the uncertainties involved with them.  ... 

Foureye: Defensive Deception based on Hypergame Theory Against Advanced Persistent Threats [article]

Zelin Wan, Jin-Hee Cho, Mu Zhu, Ahmed H. Anwar, Charles Kamhoua, Munindar P. Singh
2021 arXiv   pre-print
However, most game-theoretic defensive deception approaches have assumed that players maintain consistent views under uncertainty.  ...  This gives a chance for defensive deception strategies to manipulate an attacker's belief, which is the key to the attacker's decision making.  ...  In addition, this research is also partly supported by the Army Research Office under Grant Contract Number W91NF-20-2-0140.  ... 
arXiv:2101.02863v2 fatcat:4tj3d5a6wfbwbd5swhpblidv5m

Cultural and religiosity drivers and satisfaction outcomes of consumer perceived deception in online shopping

Gomaa M. Agag, Ahmed A. El-Masry
2016 Internet Research  
Their results revealed that deceptive manipulations can alter the decision making processes of individuals, and suggested that even sophisticated, technologically competent individuals fail to detect the  ...  Islamic followers are idealistic because they are brought up according to Egyptian philosophy that asks them to be cautious when making decisions and this helps them to make sure that the outcome of their  ... 
doi:10.1108/intr-06-2015-0168 fatcat:7cyn374qkzgenlc5vpquls6vgm

Modelling deception using theory of mind in multi-agent systems

Ştefan Sarkadi, Alison R. Panisson, Rafael H. Bordini, Peter McBurney, Simon Parsons, Martin Chapman
2019 AI Communications  
In this paper, we present a high-level approach for modelling machine deception using ToM under factors of uncertainty and we propose an implementation of this model in an Agent-Oriented Programming Language  ...  To detect machine deception, arguably requires a model of how machines may deceive, and how such deception may be identified.  ...  In order to succeed in its deception, Donald needs to make Ivan believe what Donald is telling Ivan. To do this under the assumption of uncertainty, Donald needs access to Ivan's degree of trust.  ... 
doi:10.3233/aic-190615 fatcat:7f3wv2razzgjlh4wr6clojsl6u

Page 4680 of Psychological Abstracts Vol. 79, Issue 11 [page]

1992 Psychological Abstracts  
(U Illinois, Champaign) Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making. Special Issue: Group decision making.  ...  Organi- zational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 1992(Jun), Vol 52(1), 124-155. —Examines confidence in decisions that are made by groups under uncertainty.  ... 

The audience effect and the role of deception in the expression of male mating preferences

Sergio Castellano, Olivier Friard, Andrea Pilastro
2016 Animal Behaviour  
Males could assess female quality with a varying level of uncertainty, 21 which was modelled using a Bayesian statistical decision theory approach.  ...  We explored the 22 actor and bystander payoffs under different levels of uncertainty in mate assessment and 23 difference in quality between females.  ...  However, since uncertainty is 345 low, deception is ineffective and the costs it imposes on the actor usually exceed the benefits. 346 Under these conditions, the actor is forced to play the 'honest'  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.anbehav.2016.02.016 fatcat:rdcugg7ugbgidanugidqjv7l4y
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