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Countdown Regression: Sharp and Calibrated Survival Predictions [article]

Anand Avati, Tony Duan, Sharon Zhou, Kenneth Jung, Nigam H. Shah and Andrew Ng
2019 arXiv   pre-print
In this paper we present the Survival-CRPS, a generalization of the CRPS to the survival prediction setting, with right-censored and interval-censored variants.  ...  Probabilistic survival predictions from models trained with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) can have high, and sometimes unacceptably high variance.  ...  We thank Baran Sandor, Sebastian Lerch, Alejandro Schuler, Jeremy Irvin, and Russell Greiner for valuable feedback.  ... 
arXiv:1806.08324v2 fatcat:ld3gzazu2bcdpljgm3xzn5d47y

Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Calibrated Probabilistic Models [article]

Eric Zelikman, Sharon Zhou, Jeremy Irvin, Cooper Raterink, Hao Sheng, Anand Avati, Jack Kelly, Ram Rajagopal, Andrew Y. Ng, David Gagne
2020 arXiv   pre-print
We investigate the use of post-hoc calibration techniques for ensuring well-calibrated probabilistic predictions.  ...  Further, we show that NGBoost with CRUDE post-hoc calibration achieves comparable performance to a numerical weather prediction model on hourly-resolution forecasting.  ...  Shah, and A. Y. Ng, “Countdown regression: sharp and calibrated survival predictions,” in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pp. 145–155, PMLR, 2020. [30] P. Lauret, M. David, and P.  ... 
arXiv:2010.04715v2 fatcat:liqhgwehirfkbhamycsbu7rfya

The Relationship between Perceptual Decision Variables and Confidence in the Human Brain

Martin N. Hebart, Yoren Schriever, Tobias H. Donner, John-Dylan Haynes
2014 Cerebral Cortex  
Here, we used fMRI and multivariate decoding techniques to identify regions of the human brain that encode this decision variable and confidence during a visual motion discrimination task.  ...  A number of areas in prefrontal and posterior parietal association cortex encoded this decision variable, and activity in the ventral striatum reflected the degree of perceptual confidence.  ...  Fourth, we obtained the predictive accuracy as the correlation between the true labels of the left-out samples and the labels predicted from the regression model.  ... 
doi:10.1093/cercor/bhu181 pmid:25112281 fatcat:x6khgcvperazpok25oss4ftj3e

The Sunk-Cost Fallacy in Penny Auctions

Ned Augenblick
2015 The Review of Economic Studies  
To explain this deviation, I incorporate a sunk cost fallacy into the theoretical model to generate a set of predictions about hazard rates and player behavior, which I con...rm empirically.  ...  While players do (slowly) learn to correct this bias and there are few obvious barriers to competition, activity in the market is rising and concentration remains relatively high.  ...  To control for potential selection issues that may drive this result and provide a calibration of the level of the sunk-cost e¤ect, I regress the outcome of an auction ending at any point on a large set  ... 
doi:10.1093/restud/rdv037 fatcat:x6i7vadudbhapacynzkom36xe4

A new prototype of a non-ferromagnetic non-invasive femoral extendable prosthesis for skeletally immature patients

G Vicatos, S Ginsberg, AT Parsons
2018 SA Orthopaedic Journal  
Testing has been performed to quantify the linear force developed by the device, the electronics' survival and behaviour after gamma radiation, the permeability of water through the seals, the rate of  ...  Although MRI testing at 3 Tesla magnetic field strength was inconclusive, but produced no artefacts or scattering, literature suggests that at the recommended strength of 1.5 Tesla, the MRI will produce a sharp  ...  Each extension operation results in a countdown on the total extension programmed by the physician.  ... 
doi:10.17159/2309-8309/2018/v17n4a6 fatcat:mgpmh37iu5cn5k44winjjeirzm

Is there brief temporal buffering of successive visual inputs?

Wayne S. Smith, J. D. Mollon, Rishi Bhardwaj, Hannah E. Smithson
2011 Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology  
The two arrays were spatially coincident, and each was followed by a random pattern-mask.  ...  We adopt the part-report paradigm to test whether visual memory can preserve, for a brief time, successive inputs and their temporal order.  ...  We undertook a multiple regression, partitioning out variability between participants, as described in detail by Bland and Altman (1995) .  ... 
doi:10.1080/17470218.2010.511237 pmid:21462092 fatcat:3647uklay5fgjfeucouchaobka

Beverage Sensory Modification

Manuel Malfeito-Ferreira
2019 Beverages  
The Special Issue on "Beverage Sensory Modification" gathers a series of articles that feature the broad sense of sensory modification, either by improving flavor, taste, and mouthfeel properties or by  ...  Author Contributions: Naomi Gotow participated in the study design and coordination, performed the statistical analysis, and drafted the manuscript; Shinji Esumi and Hirofumi Kubota conceived of the study  ...  and participated in its design; Tatsu Kobayakawa, who is the corresponding author, conceived of the study, participated in its design and coordination, undertook most of the revisions, and supervised  ... 
doi:10.3390/beverages5030045 fatcat:f55hnndfcrcjtdswgajg2tl7t4

Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics

1999 Abstracts of Working Papers in Economics  
The quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimator accommodates exogenous covariatcs and reduces to quantile regression as a special case when treatment status is exogenous.  ...  Asymptotic distribution theory and computational methods are derived.  ...  In this paper, I use a variety of estimation strategies and samples to estimate the effect of the program on math and reading scores.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s0951007900004617 fatcat:cdm4vvqx6ne6vihbu3zikddb2m


P. Lacombe, G. Blaise, F. Plante, C. Hollmann, D. H. Penning, J. Patrick, J. Brien, B. Orser, M. Bertlik, L. Fedorko, H. O'Brodovich, A. C. Santos (+486 others)
1990 Canadian Journal of Anesthesia  
Respitrace calibration factors (CF) were obtained using the least squares method and polynomial regression analysis.  ...  The relationship between the measured and the predicted V T was described by polynomial regression, and the r 2 value. The CF were used to partition V T into rib cage {RC) and abdominal compartments.  ...  Linear regression analysis and coefficient of determination (r 2) was used to compare plots of CBFV versus CPP during NCPB, MoHCPB and PHCPB.  ... 
doi:10.1007/bf03006282 pmid:2361238 fatcat:mdvizbfau5hu5d4c7nsccqsg6q

Influence of pain on human sensorimotor control and learning

Carlo Bagnato, Etienne Burdet
Through pain, contact area can be minimised when handling a hot stove or the hands shifted away from sharp edges whilst carrying a heavy piece of furniture.  ...  A second robotic stimulator was designed and fabricated to study the influence of pain on motor control and learning.  ...  Figure 4 . 4 2 and ??); a linear regression was conducted for each trial (R 2 =0.994 ± 0.016), and the subjects' reaching speed was estimated as the angular coe cients of the linear regression fits.  ... 
doi:10.25560/68275 fatcat:ahuokat3ojggthqjtd6fmhoilm

Vol. 1, No. 2, August 2009

Editor IJEF
2009 International Journal of Economics and Finance  
The results of this study are in line with earlier findings and claim that the TOM and intramonth anomalies are driven by the clustered release of major U.S. macroeconomic news announcements.  ...  World-wide markets are becoming more integrated and therefore in this study we hypothesize that major U.S. macroeconomic news announcements are also the cause for the TOM and intramonth effects on the  ...  Long-Horizon Regressions Next, again following Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a) , we test the return predictability of cay for the long horizon.  ... 
doi:10.5539/ijef.v1n2p0 fatcat:tjz5ifbgtrfp7bdlk7yygm3bae

Spatiotemporal enabled Content-based Image Retrieval

Mariana Belgiu, Martin Sudmanns, Tiede Dirk, Andrea Baraldi, Stefan Lang
2016 International Conference on GIScience Short Paper Proceedings  
and natural obstacles in the sensing areas (Wang and Cao 2011).  ...  Efficient monitoring and management of dynamic phenomena in the real world necessitates its efficient and accurate coverage.  ...  And the authors want to thank DigitalGlobe Foundation and European Space Agency for providing satellite imagery for this research, and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions  ... 
doi:10.21433/b311729295dw fatcat:fulw4pw3kfh5nmfzcsy3pkisvm

Instability and Information [article]

Felix Patzelt
2015 arXiv   pre-print
It explains many findings in both fields and resolves an apparent antinomy: the coexistence of stabilising control or market efficiency and perpetual instabilities resembling critical phenomena in physical  ...  This general principle is studied in several domain-specific models and in behavioural experiments.  ...  For a 56cm stick, average survival times were 14s for novice subjects and more than 100s on the third day of practise. For a 25cm stick, survival times were dramatically shorter.  ... 
arXiv:1511.03732v1 fatcat:qkp6t6iftvdihl2lrn3gvqsjjy

A theoretical model of vascularized tumors : simulation of blood vessel network remodeling, interstitial fluid flow and oxygenation [article]

Michael Welter, Universität Des Saarlandes, Universität Des Saarlandes
An extended model is developed, incorporating processes of angiogenesis, vaso-dilation, vessel regression and collapse, for tumors embedded in artificial arterio-venous networks.  ...  It is predicted that substances dissolved in blood are rapidly conducted in maximal concentrations through most parts of the tumor network.  ...  ( 2) Vessel regression: The maintenance of incorporated mature microvessels depends on the survival of endothelial cells (ECs) and their survival is intimately tied to their local microenvironment and  ... 
doi:10.22028/d291-23205 fatcat:jg672e3gnnaqtckqmwvq7tz7qq

A Breastfeed-Promoting Mobile App Intervention: Usability and Usefulness Study

Chih-Jau Wang, Pimwadee Chaovalit, Suporn Pongnumkul
2018 JMIR mHealth and uHealth  
Victora, Cesar G., et al., 'Countdown to 2015: A decade of tracking progress for maternal, newborn, and child survival', The Lancet, October 2015, pp. 1-2. 35.  ...  shared prosperity -can be predicted by the degree to which it provides every child with a fair chance in life.  ...  . ++ Changes in the definitions of several ECD indicators were made between the third and fourth round of MICS (MICS3 and MICS4).  ... 
doi:10.2196/mhealth.8337 pmid:29374000 pmcid:PMC5807626 fatcat:3w6fuiawd5eyllc5obj5mmntqe
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