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Contrasting Climate Ensembles: A Model-based Visualization Approach for Analyzing Extreme Events

Robert Sisneros, Jian Huang, George Ostrouchov, Sean Ahern, B. David Semeraro
2013 Procedia Computer Science  
We apply this approach to the problem of highlighting variations in climate model ensembles.  ...  The foundation of our approach is to classify data points via inclusion in, or distance to, multivariate representations of relationships among a subset of the variables of a dataset.  ...  However, users are often interested in models that relate two main types of events: typical events and extreme events.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.procs.2013.05.406 fatcat:sliavwyauvh4pjneqfd2gmgvqi

Urban Areas and Urban–Rural Contrasts under Climate Change: What Does the EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Tell Us?—Investigating Near Surface Humidity in Berlin and Its Surroundings

Langendijk, Rechid, Jacob
2019 Atmosphere  
multi-model ensemble.  ...  The Mann-Kendall test quantifies a robust decreasing trend in relative humidity for the multi-model ensemble throughout the twenty-first century.  ...  Additionally, the mean change in the UDI throughout the century could imply a change in extremes, variability, or compound events. These are all interesting topics for further research.  ... 
doi:10.3390/atmos10120730 fatcat:ontw7zprynaxtlivsplboyoexu

Ensemble Forecasting [chapter]

Alfons Callado, Pau Escrib, Jos Antonio, Jess Montero, Carlos Santos, Daniel Santos-Muoz, Juan Simarro
2013 Climate Change and Regional/Local Responses  
Extreme events are rare events, with low base rates and belong to the tail of the corresponding climatological distributions.  ...  Extreme forecast index Extreme events are not always severe, but severe events are often extremes.  ... 
doi:10.5772/55699 fatcat:tvvbho2rpbfufet2heqxwn4kuu

Contrasting Response to Drought and Climate of Planted and Natural Pinus pinaster Aiton Forests in Southern Spain

Carlos Rodriguez-Vallejo, Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo
2019 Forests  
The strong relationship between climatic variables and growth enabled acceptable results to be obtained in a modeling approach.  ...  Extreme drought events and increasing aridity are leading to forest decline and tree mortality, particularly in populations near the limits of the species distribution.  ...  Effects of SPEI12_6 on the BAI, based on a linear mixed-effects models fitted to basal area increment data for the period 2000-2017 according to defoliation level (1-no defoliation, 0%-5%; 2moderate defoliation  ... 
doi:10.3390/f10070603 fatcat:4eohghpyebdpzfs6jzplce7dry

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

Zulima Tablado, Eloy Revilla, Hiroshi Nishiura
2012 PLoS ONE  
Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding  ...  season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe.  ...  Climatic records for control and future periods were obtained from RCAO through the PRUDENCE project website and photoperiod data was provided by the US Naval Observatory website.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0048988 pmid:23152836 pmcid:PMC3496743 fatcat:xp5q7yygqzcyngwcmlstzxydey

Very rare heat extremes: quantifying and understanding using ensemble re-initialization

Claudia Gessner, Erich M. Fischer, Urs Beyerle, Reto Knutti
2021 Journal of Climate  
model, based on dynamic and thermodynamic heat wave drivers, and (3) a novel ensemble boosting method, generating large samples of re-initialized extreme heat waves in the long climate simulation.All  ...  Here, we address this challenge by analysing summer temperatures in a nearly 5000-year pre-industrial climate model simulation, performed with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.  ...  As in Fig. 5 , but column pairs show the explained variance of maximum Tx7d anomaly for all 12 boosted heat wave ensembles, sorted by the rank of their reference maximum Tx7d anomaly in the CESM-PI run  ... 
doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0916.1 fatcat:or4yx5qoxngizdqvjawnzagg4a

Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe

G. Forzieri, L. Feyen, R. Rojas, M. Flörke, F. Wimmer, A. Bianchi
2014 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences  
</strong> There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity and frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climate change.  ...  Through offline coupling of a hydrological model with an ensemble of bias-corrected climate simulations (IPCC SRES A1B) and a water use scenario (Economy First), long-term (1961–2100) ensemble streamflow  ...  Dosio for the bias correction of the ENSEMBLES climate simulations and M. Zambrano-Bigiarini for assistance in R coding.  ... 
doi:10.5194/hess-18-85-2014 fatcat:fxsiaelsqncyfbwzamacq2kcou

Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe

G. Forzieri, L. Feyen, R. Rojas, M. Flörke, F. Wimmer, A. Bianchi
2013 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions  
There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity and frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climate change.  ...  Through offline coupling of a hydrological model with an ensemble of bias-corrected climate simulations (IPCC SRES A1B) and a water use scenario (Economy First), long-term (1961-2100) ensemble streamflow  ...  Dosio for the bias correction of the ENSEMBLES climate simulations and M. Zambrano-Bigiarini for assistance in R coding.  ... 
doi:10.5194/hessd-10-10719-2013 fatcat:5wgezuhzr5fg7ofax2sb4r5zoi

Estimating change in extreme European precipitation using a multimodel ensemble

H. J. Fowler, M. Ekström, S. Blenkinsop, A. P. Smith
2007 Journal of Geophysical Research  
For impact studies, both the resolution and number of models in the ensemble will influence projections of change. The use of a multimodel approach therefore provides more robust estimates.  ...  A multimodel approach by which probabilities can be produced for regional or local-scale change in extremes is then developed.  ...  Ultimately, a multiscale approach must be developed for weighting the results from different climate models.  ... 
doi:10.1029/2007jd008619 fatcat:5rlmh2g25bek7p2hwapqsepspi

Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Rodrigo Aguayo, Jorge León-Muñoz, René Garreaud, Aldo Montecinos
2021 Scientific Reports  
In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences.  ...  Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040  ...  Data availability The CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model databases are available thanks to the World Climate Research Project (WCRP; https ://esgf-node.llnl.gov/searc h/esgf-llnl).  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41598-021-84807-4 pmid:33750825 pmcid:PMC7943561 fatcat:tzy43ry2lfgqvpmo4bwfchyjrm

Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections

Norman Dreier, Edgar Nehlsen, Peter Fröhle, Diana Rechid, Laurens M. Bouwer, Susanne Pfeifer
2021 Water  
An ensemble of new regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the RCM REMO for three RCP forcing scenarios was used as input data.  ...  Additional research is needed regarding the long-term changes of extreme wave events, e.g., the choice of a best-fit extreme value distribution function and the spatial aggregation method of the wind data  ...  climate model ensembles.  ... 
doi:10.3390/w13020167 fatcat:2bn6snyunneariurger75njuem

Means and Extremes: Evaluation of a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble in Reproducing Historical Climate Characteristics across Alberta, Canada

Badrul Masud, Quan Cui, Mohamed E. Ammar, Barrie R. Bonsal, Zahidul Islam, Monireh Faramarzi
2021 Water  
The tail behaviour of extremes is evaluated using the Generalized Pareto Distribution. Regional evaluations are also conducted for four climate sub-regions across the study area.  ...  Three extreme indices including consecutive wet days (CWD), summer days (SD), and warm nights (WN) are defined based on the peak over the threshold approach and characterized by duration and frequency.  ...  The authors would like to thank three anonymous referees and the editors for their constructive and helpful comments. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.  ... 
doi:10.3390/w13050737 fatcat:h7iifhoskbfftb6dtuucpuqw5u

Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: model performance and projections

Michael F. Wehner
2012 Climate Dynamics  
Seasonal extreme daily precipitation is analyzed in the ensemble of NARCAPP regional climate models.  ...  A complicated model weighting scheme based on model performance in simulating observations is found to cause significant improvements in ensemble mean skill only if some of the models are poorly performing  ...  Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program and the Earth System Modeling Program of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the Department  ... 
doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1393-1 fatcat:jxhgcrxgbfglpnsqyf545hmpqm

Building hazard maps of extreme daily rainy events from PDF ensemble, via REA method, on Senegal River Basin

J. D. Giraldo Osorio, S. G. García Galiano
2011 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences  
Nonetheless, the projections for change in extreme rainfall values have shown a great divergence between Regional Climate Models (RCM), increasing the forecast uncertainty.  ...  rainfall events.  ...  Based on a French initiative, AMMA was built by an international scientific group and is currently funded by a large number of agencies, especially from France, UK, US and Africa.  ... 
doi:10.5194/hess-15-3605-2011 fatcat:p3ubrzxqqrejjeqdpv7kk5zchi

Uncertainty-Oriented Ensemble Data Visualization and Exploration using Variable Spatial Spreading

Mingdong Zhang, Li Chen, Quan Li, Xiaoru Yuan, Junhai Yong
2020 IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics  
We verify our approach by analyzing a real-world ensemble simulation dataset. Feedback collected from domain experts confirms the efficacy of our framework.  ...  Visualization is a promising and powerful ensemble simulation analysis method.  ...  In contrast to the deterministic prediction results, the uncertainty of the ensemble data should be analyzed first for the assimilation of ensemble predictions.  ... 
doi:10.1109/tvcg.2020.3030377 pmid:33048703 fatcat:7xtesv4oy5bb3bm2mgmuwfvuoi
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