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Hitting Times and Probabilities for Imprecise Markov Chains [article]

Thomas Krak, Natan T'Joens, Jasper De Bock
2020 arXiv   pre-print
Our first contribution is that all these different types of imprecise Markov chains have the same lower and upper expected hitting times, and similarly the hitting probabilities are the same for these  ...  We consider the problem of characterising expected hitting times and hitting probabilities for imprecise Markov chains.  ...  We are very grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions and constructive comments.  ... 
arXiv:1905.08781v3 fatcat:tconrpf2rzdtpd3sr7hvptzqfa

PAPERS FROM ACTUARIAL JOURNALS WORLDWIDE

2016 Annals of Actuarial Science  
These abstracts are compiled by the library service of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.  ...  Members of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries can also access these journals directly by registering for the eLibrary. A password is available on request.  ...  Based on that, the upper and lower bounds of premium with uncertain random loss are given, respectively.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1748499515000147 fatcat:cxwzklcxczghzfc2a6n4nsdih4

A comprehensive continuous-time model for the appearance of CGH signal due to chromosomal missegregations during mitosis

Richard Desper, Michael J. Difilippantonio, Thomas Ried, Alejandro A. Schäffer
2005 Mathematical Biosciences  
This allows the user to test hypotheses regarding the effect chromosomal aberrations have upon the cell cycle, cell growth rates, and time to population dominance. Published by Elsevier Inc.  ...  We use an algebraic model to track the different copy numbers as states in a stochastic process, based on the model of chromosome instability of Gusev, Kagansky, and Dooley, and consider the average copy  ...  Marc Lalande for pointing out the work of Dean and Gray and the software SFIT. Also, thanks to the anonymous referee for helpful comments.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2005.05.005 pmid:16043196 pmcid:PMC1356526 fatcat:7tfsla6vsfasznrnh2f5mc4hea

Social Class, Marriage, and Fertility in Schizophrenia

L. F. Saugstad
1989 Schizophrenia Bulletin  
; fertility and childlessness in schizophrenia; selection for marriage in schizophrenia; marriage patterns, inbreeding, and schizophrenia; social class, social mobility, and occupation in schizophrenia  ...  ; social mobility and social selection; excess of schizophrenia in the lowest strata of society; social class, course, and outcome; and social stress and schizophrenia.  ...  In fact, illegitimate births appeared to be lower than expected on the basis of general population trends in the two investigations from Germany.  ... 
doi:10.1093/schbul/15.1.9 pmid:2655069 fatcat:so4trasig5acdjwqhd3msgd7jy

Risk Analysis [chapter]

2012 Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics  
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thanks are due to two anonymous referees, who carefully read this paper, and made very interesting and stimulating comments.  ...  The authors are also grateful to Giovanni Petris, Antonio Pievatolo and Mike Wiper for their valuable comments. The research was performed when the second author was affiliated with CNR-IMATI.  ...  define an embedded (discrete time) Markov chain • {X t } will be designated a CTMC with parameters P and ν = (ν 1 , . . . , ν K ) T BIRTH-DEATH PROCESS • Birth-death process particular example of a  ... 
doi:10.1002/9780470975916.ch10 fatcat:dwnwelyqojd53hcqxhzanmbuoe

An Integrated Procedure for Bayesian Reliability Inference Using MCMC

Jing Lin
2014 Journal of Quality and Reliability Engineering  
The recent proliferation of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches has led to the use of the Bayesian inference in a wide variety of fields.  ...  The goal is to build a framework for related academic research and engineering applications to implement modern computational-based Bayesian approaches, especially for reliability inferences.  ...  Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Luleå Railway Research Centre (Järnvägstekniskt Centrum, Sweden) for initiating the research study and Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) for  ... 
doi:10.1155/2014/264920 fatcat:rq64qg2bm5fo7carjfx3nalc4q

Disease Control and Inequality Reduction: Evidence from a Tuberculosis Testing and Vaccination Campaign

Aline Butikofer, Kjell G. Salvanes
2015 Social Science Research Network  
Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten  ...  To compute a lower bound, we divide the total program costs by the number of tested individual aged 14 years or younger. This exercise yields an internal rate of return of 0.032.  ...  Hence, the calculated internal rate of return is an upper bound as our estimated effects on income are valid only for every tenth tested person.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2719441 fatcat:7i2awblwe5b45gsfom4tpiqtwi

Borel on the Heap

Paul Égré, Anouk Barberousse
2014 Erkenntnis: An International Journal of Scientific Philosophy  
In 1907 Borel published a remarkable essay on the paradox of the Heap ("Un paradoxé economique: le sophisme du tas de blé et les vérités statistiques"), in which Borel proposes what is likely the first  ...  The third concerns the problematic link between Borel's model of vagueness as imprecision and the notion of semantic indeterminacy.  ...  On the discussion of probabilistic treatments of phenomenal predicates and the problem of transitivity, see Hardin (1988) , whose account comes out close in spirit to the first of Borel's proposed answer  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10670-013-9596-3 fatcat:73hztqpzg5e65ed5lg5vwaswgq

Credit Risk Modeling [chapter]

Tomasz R. Bielecki
2015 Encyclopedia of Systems and Control  
The numbers of researchers in academy and industry, of students, of methods and models have all proliferated in the past decade or so.  ...  Titles in this series will be scholarly and professional books, intended to be read by a mixed audience of economists, mathematicians, operations research scientists, financial engineers, and other investment  ...  Consider a claim which pays off 1 when ξ hits the upper boundary without first hitting the lower boundary, and pays off 0 when the lower boundary is hit before the upper boundary.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-5058-9_43 fatcat:p26hb5ljunegpc46ysmroqzd7q

An information fusion demonstrator for tactical intelligence processing in network-based defense

Simon Ahlberg, Pontus Hörling, Katarina Johansson, Karsten Jöred, Hedvig Kjellström, Christian Mårtenson, Göran Neider, Johan Schubert, Pontus Svenson, Per Svensson, Johan Walter
2007 Information Fusion  
The focus of the demonstrator is on real-time tactical intelligence processing at the division level in a ground warfare scenario.  ...  This represents a key step toward the goal of creating in real time a dynamic, high fidelity representation of a moving battalion-sized organization, based on sensor data as well as a priori intelligence  ...  Probability of target death is p D and of target birth p B .  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.inffus.2005.11.002 fatcat:eppjwn6zcne7ncovyga3ze7py4

Metastability of hard-core dynamics on bipartite graphs [article]

Frank den Hollander, Francesca R. Nardi, Siamak Taati
2017 arXiv   pre-print
We obtain a sharp asymptotic estimate for the expected transition time, show that the transition time is asymptotically exponentially distributed, and identify the size and shape of the critical droplet  ...  For various types of bipartite graphs the computations are made explicit. Proofs rely on potential theory for reversible Markov chains, and on isoperimetric results.  ...  Therefore, we get a similar lower bound for the expected crossover time using Proposition 3.2. Proposition 8.4 (Lower bound for expected crossover time: Widom-Rowlinson).  ... 
arXiv:1710.10232v1 fatcat:zsrhwx2u7fbjjk4qcgicasig6q

Dynamics of the Tidal Fields and Formation of Star Clusters in Galaxy Mergers [article]

Florent Renaud (Observatoire de Strasbourg and Institut für Astronomie, Vienna)
2010 arXiv   pre-print
In interacting galaxies, strong tidal forces disturb the global morphology of the progenitors and give birth to the long stellar, gaseous and dusty tails often observed.  ...  Furthermore, characteristic time- and energy scales of these modes match well those of self-gravitating substructures such as star clusters and tidal dwarf galaxies.  ...  This can be interpreted by considering the birth and death rates of the clusters.  ... 
arXiv:1008.0331v1 fatcat:fbtqndv2bbdybk2u5ddylyduqa

Opportunities for Scholarly Activities During Subspecialty Education: A Scorecard for Pediatric Fellowship Programs

George Lister, David K. Stevenson
2005 Journal of Pediatrics  
We thank the mothers and neonates who participated in this study and Julia Beutler, Larissa Feijo, Karla Gill, and Yanexy Vera for their help with participant recruitment and data collection.  ...  Coates, PhD, Alan Fleischman, MD, and Marjorie Speers, PhD, for their helpful advice and feedback on this project, and Philip Rosenthal, MD, and Alexander Kon, MD, for their useful comments on earlier  ...  Samoan infants born at term in New Zealand have a relatively high mean birth weight compared with Europeans (3700 vs 3500 g). 11 The mean birth weight of this cohort (2758 g) is lower than expected and  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jpeds.2005.04.057 pmid:16027681 fatcat:seovvplecvbwdmy2hmkfjawev4

Linear Circularity/(A)Temporal Poetics [chapter]

2021 Suffering Time: Philosophical, Kabbalistic, and Ḥasidic Reflections on Temporality  
Accordingly, no attempt is made here to provide a comprehensive understanding of time in the variegated history of Judaism.2  ...  localities, intellectual influences and literary genre.  ...  For another striking example of the ethnocentrism defended by appeal to the mystical ideal of annihilation in the infinite presumed to be unique to the Jewish people, consider the following unambiguous  ... 
doi:10.1163/9789004449343_003 fatcat:3hxfndz5rrdjxnqufcdukdxkee

Sex, Lies, and the Hillblom Estate: A Decision Analysis

Steven A. Lippman, Kevin F. McCardle
2004 Decision Analysis  
In the third approach, we embed several Nash bargaining games into the decision tree developed in the first approach.  ...  The first two approaches are standard: a decision tree focusing on risk aversion and a multiperiod consumption model that highlights the effects of forgone consumption.  ...  The price for the prince standing aside was an interest in DHL, which, at the time of Larry's death, was worth $287 million.  ... 
doi:10.1287/deca.1040.0025 fatcat:nbup6fczzbfk3g4ikosjcskdba
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