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COVID-19 Risk Estimation using a Time-varying SIR-model
[article]
2020
arXiv
pre-print
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We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a time-varying SIR epidemic model that ultimately yields a simplified color-coded risk level for each community. ...
We show how this risk score can be estimated using another useful metric of infection spread, R_t, the time-varying average reproduction number which indicates the average number of individuals an infected ...
We show how this can be estimated using a time-varying SIR model, a generalization of the well-known SIR compartmental model [4] , [5] which consists of three states, namely the susceptible state, the ...
arXiv:2008.08140v1
fatcat:vtftbwvkonccln7qz7o3ucbubq
Discussion of "Evaluate the Risk of Resumption of Business for the States of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut via a Pre-Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Transmission Model of COVID-19"
2021
Journal of Data Science
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Many variants of the SIR model or its extensions have been used to model the development of COVID-19 from different aspects (see, Wang et al., 2020; Yang et al., 2020; Hu and Geng, 2020 ). ...
The Proposed SIHC Model There is a notable amount of work done by statisticians and biostatisticians since the breakout of COVID-19. ...
Many variants of the SIR model or its extensions have been used to model the development of COVID-19 from different aspects (see, Wang et al., 2020; Yang et al., 2020; Hu and Geng, 2020 ). ...
doi:10.6339/21-jds994c
fatcat:reitpbqgxjcftjn6g7cmh4tc4u
Discussion of "Evaluate the Risk of Resumption of Business for the States of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut via a Pre-Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Transmission Model of COVID-19"
2021
Journal of Data Science
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the risk of reopening business via a pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission model of COVID-19. ...
Tian et al. (2021) makes a timely contribution to provide predicted COVID-19 risk information for the policy-makers to evaluate their reopening plans. ...
doi:10.6339/21-jds994e
fatcat:4uwgtxwezjeingg6cz66knutky
Estimating individual risks of COVID-19-associated hospitalization and death using publicly available data
2020
PLoS ONE
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Using the method, we estimate that risks for a 90-day period at the median daily summertime U.S. county confirmed COVID-19 case incidence of 10.8 per 100,000 and pre-pandemic contact rates range from 0.4 ...
These estimates are sensitive to the parameter assumptions; nevertheless, they are comparable to the COVID-19 hospitalization and fatality rates observed over the time period. ...
Estimated risk of death and hospitalization at pre-pandemic U.S. contact rates over a 90-day time period at the median county incidence of confirmed infections during the "summer wave' of the COVID-19 ...
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0243026
pmid:33284861
fatcat:vmumslc3cfemlnlnr5dmzg6dmu
Cure and death play a role in understanding dynamics for COVID-19: Data-driven competing risk compartmental models, with and without vaccination
2021
PLoS ONE
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Several factors have played a strong role in influencing the dynamics of COVID-19 in the U.S. ...
Computations are performed using a simple discrete time algorithm that utilizes a data driven contact rate. ...
Extensions to the basic SIR model to include other stages have been considered for COVID-19 [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . ...
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0254397
fatcat:3vatncsfa5aofl5rqgdnehfna4
Estimating Unreported COVID-19 Cases with a Time-Varying SIR Regression Model
2021
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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We suggested taking time-varying Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models with unreported infection rates (UIR) to estimate factual COVID-19 cases in the United States. ...
Methods: Both the SIR model integrated with unreported infection rates (SIRu) of fixed-time effect and SIRu with time-varying parameters (tvSIRu) were applied to estimate and compare the values of transmission ...
A recent study suggested using a time-varying SIR model to capture the changing transmissive rate [21] . ...
doi:10.3390/ijerph18031090
pmid:33530563
pmcid:PMC7908085
fatcat:o64cvqnzxngodkduceeb4csxlm
Are we there yet? Adaptive SIR model for continuous estimation of COVID-19 infection rate and reproduction number in the United States (Preprint)
2020
Journal of Medical Internet Research
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We propose a simple method for estimating the time-varying infection rate and reproduction number R_t . We use a sliding window approach applied to a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed model. ...
The dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic vary due to local population density and policy measures. ...
Discussion
Principal Findings We developed a simple approach to adaptively estimate the time-varying parameters of the SIR model, using reported data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. ...
doi:10.2196/24389
pmid:33755577
fatcat:zyfoajzftnedjeckjft7tbocwy
Scaling analysis of COVID-19 spreading based on Belgian hospitalization data
[article]
2020
medRxiv
pre-print
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Based on the SIR-X model fit, we analyze the COVID-19 mortality and the number of patients requiring ICU treatment over time. ...
For the latter, we estimate a power law exponent of ≈ 2.2, which is consistent with growth kinetics of COVID-19 in China and indicative of the underlying small world network structure of the epidemic. ...
When extrapolating the number of deaths using the SIR-X model, the predicted death toll due to COVID-19 will exceed 10 3 by April 3rd. ...
doi:10.1101/2020.03.29.20046730
fatcat:gams7fqpgng7vepbfh5hvsumia
An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
2021
Journal of Data Science
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As a case study, we examine the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic using the publicly available data from the China CDC. ...
We extend the SIR model to incorporate various types of time-varying quarantine protocols, including government-level 'macro' isolation policies and community-level 'micro' social distancing (e.g. self-isolation ...
Figure 1 : 1 A conceptual framework of the proposed epidemiological state-space SIR model. at time t:
Figure 2 : 2 Extended SIR models with a time-varying transmission rate modifier π(t) (Panel A) or ...
doi:10.6339/jds.202007_18(3).0003
fatcat:nw2syewsfvfdbk7g6uh3bwntba
COVID-19 Fatality: A Cross-Sectional Study using Adaptive Lasso Penalized Sliced Inverse Regression
2021
Journal of Data Science
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We apply the proposed method to conduct a cross-sectional study for the COVID-19 data obtained from two time points of the outbreak. ...
We employ a multiple index model in combination with sliced inverse regression to facilitate the relationship between the IFR and possible risk factors. ...
This research is partially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) as well as the Rapid Response Program -COVID-19 of the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute ...
doi:10.6339/jds.202007_18(3).0015
fatcat:ggqatm2w6vgtllg7hoj356g4zu
Rejoinder: An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China
2021
Journal of Data Science
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day ahead risk prediction of COVID-19 for each county in state Maryland from May 2, 2020. ...
Our recent project proposed a spatiotemporal epidemiological forecast model that combines a spatial cellular automata (CA) with the eSAIR model (1) to predict the infection risk of COVID-19 for 3109 counties ...
doi:10.6339/jds.202007_18(3).0009
fatcat:mcccxjv6l5hobicpnz42armzkm
Risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections: using artificial intelligence to investigate stringency of physical distancing policies in North America
2020
International Orthopaedics
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Moreover, there is a need for a multidimensional county-level approach to monitor the second wave of covid-19 in the USA. ...
Accurately forecasting the occurrence of future covid-19-related cases across relaxed (Sweden) and stringent (USA and Canada) policy contexts has a renewed sense of urgency. ...
Fig Fig. 4 a (Clockwise) Effective growth rate of covid-19 cases for Sweden; Bayesian SIR model forecast of new confirmed covid-19 cases for Sweden; and Number of new covid-19 cases in Sweden. b Kalman ...
doi:10.1007/s00264-020-04653-3
pmid:32504213
pmcid:PMC7411331
fatcat:wjrh52w5evavrandhyeudvugja
COVID-19 and output in Japan
2021
Japanese Economic Review
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AbstractWe build a tractable SIR-macro-model with time-varying parameters and use it to explore various policy questions such as when to lift the state of emergency (SOE). ...
Our model-based analysis—updated weekly since January 2021, frequently reported by media, and presented to policymakers on many occasions—has played a unique role in the policy response to the COVID-19 ...
We build a tractable SIR-macro-model with time-varying parameters and quantify the relationship between the spread of COVID-19 and output in Japan. ...
doi:10.1007/s42973-021-00098-4
pmid:34566466
pmcid:PMC8455238
fatcat:b3lydbljpjdi5nub23x7x66lyi
Discussion on "The timing and effectiveness of implementing mild interventions of COVID-19 in large industrial regions via a synthetic control method" by Tian et al
2021
Statistics and its Interface
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used in recent works on SIR-type models of COVID-19 (Ray et al., 2020) . ...
Given that the model inherently relies upon a time-varying reproduction number (which can be calculated based on the estimated parameters), it would be interesting to look at this quantity over time as ...
doi:10.4310/20-sii653
fatcat:imdm2byqsvhmtbiekhawv3pd7i
Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhuhai, China, 2020
2020
Clinical Infectious Diseases
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To illustrate the extent of transmission, identify affecting risk factors and estimate epidemiological modeling parameters of SARS-CoV-2 in household setting. ...
Early isolation of patients with COVID-19 and prioritizing rapid contact investigation, followed by active symptom monitoring and periodic laboratory evaluation, should be initiated immediately after confirming ...
increased risk for COVID-19, respectively. ...
doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa557
pmid:32392331
fatcat:o46h2arkg5h6bnmu62ciqtqrpy
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