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Bottom-up modeling of domestic appliances with Markov chains and semi-Markov processes

Rajmund Drenyovszki, Lóránt Kovács, Kálmán Tornai, András Oláh, István Pintér
2018 Kybernetika (Praha)  
The views expressed are those of the author's (authors') and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of Pallas Athena Domus Mentis Foundation. (Received January 24, 2017)  ...  ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research is supported by EFOP-3.6.1-16-2016-00006 "The development and enhancement of the research potential at John von Neumann University" project.  ...  Our models (bottom-up aggregate model, iid, Markov chains and semi-Markov processes) and methods (determination of the number of states) are introduced in Section 3, while our results considering number  ... 
doi:10.14736/kyb-2017-6-1100 fatcat:dxxrqd23bffclovqoohozgosq4

Realistic Multi-Scale Modeling of Household Electricity Behaviors

Lorenzo Bottaccioli, Santa Di Cataldo, Andrea Acquaviva, Edoardo Patti
2019 IEEE Access  
Exploiting a bottom-up approach based on Monte Carlo Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov, we provide household end-user behaviors and realistic households load profiles on a daily as well as on a weekly basis,  ...  INDEX TERMS Household load profile, Non Homogeneous Semi-Markov Model, Monte Carlo, time use survey, use of energy, load modeling, behavioral modeling.  ...  Other Bottom-up solutions implement a Markov chain to model the domestic activities of endusers. Muratori et al. [20] and Johnson et al.  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2018.2886201 fatcat:4w6nkbn5bndktnqhwamrosbmya

A Probabilistic Modelling Approach for Residential Load Profiles

Felix Ziegler, Stephan Seim, Paul Verwiebe, Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer
2020 Zenodo  
It is assumed that the electricity consumption is mainly determined by the behavior of the residents and their appliances.  ...  Furthermore, the electricity load profiles are validated by comparing the outcome of the model with real measured load profiles, synthetic load profiles but also statistical characteristics, which have  ...  Semi-Automatic Appliances Semi-automatic appliances interact with the residents.  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.3689339 fatcat:24tk43be5je57pzn6t6ixmhj7y

Hidden Markov Models for ILM Appliance Identification

Antonio Ridi, Jean Hennebert
2014 Procedia Computer Science  
To determine the benefit of such modelling, we propose a comparison of stateless modelling based on Gaussian mixture models and state-based models using Hidden Markov Models.  ...  In this paper we discuss the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) for appliance recognition using so-called intrusive load monitoring (ILM) devices.  ...  Other more complex strategies consists in starting with a certain number of states and varying their number with bottom-up or top down approaches.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.procs.2014.05.526 fatcat:eaef6e63sbd4lcpifahecnxfky

A Probabilistic Model to Predict Household Occupancy Profiles for Home Energy Management Applications

Luis Rueda, Simon Sansregret, Brice Le Lostec, Kodjo Agbossou, Nilson Henao, Sousso Kelouwani
2021 IEEE Access  
The discrete-time Markov chain theory and the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model (Cox regression) are used to predict household occupancy profiles.  ...  A validation process is conducted by comparing the model performance with that of previous methods, presented in the literature. For this purpose, the k crossvalidation technique is utilized.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authors would like to thank the Laboratoire des technologies de l'énergie d'Hydro-Québec, the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Foundation of Université  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2021.3063502 fatcat:5yxgls4bc5dh5b3ld5cqs7ovti

High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model

Eoghan McKenna, Murray Thomson
2016 Applied Energy  
The new model includes the previously published components associated with electrical demand and generation (appliances, lighting, and photovoltaics) and integrates these with an updated occupancy model  ...  The paper reviews the state-of-the-art in high-resolution domestic demand modelling, describes the model, and compares its output with three independent validation datasets.  ...  Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK, within the Transformation of the Top and Tail of Energy Networks project (EP/I031707/1).  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.12.089 fatcat:qcoxhhajp5aqzfb7klhq22l47m

Control Improvisation with Probabilistic Temporal Specifications

Ilge Akkaya, Daniel J. Fremont, Rafael Valle, Alexandre Donze, Edward A. Lee, Sanjit A. Seshia
2016 2016 IEEE First International Conference on Internet-of-Things Design and Implementation (IoTDI)  
We present an implementation of our approach and apply it to the problem of mimicking the use of lighting appliances in a residential unit, with potential applications to home security and resource management  ...  We learn from existing data a generative model (for instance, an explicit-duration hidden Markov model, or EDHMM) and then supervise this model in order to guarantee that the generated sequences satisfy  ...  In such scenarios, the model quality can be improved significantly by the use of semi-Markov models.  ... 
doi:10.1109/iotdi.2015.33 dblp:conf/iotdi/AkkayaFVDLS16 fatcat:xkajtd2b5vhevielprk3cwnhpi

Appliance and state recognition using Hidden Markov Models

Antonio Ridi, Christophe Gisler, Jean Hennebert
2014 2014 International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA)  
We apply Hidden Markov Models to appliance signatures for the identification of their category and of the most probable sequence of states.  ...  Finally, we present our application for a real-time data visualization and the recognition of the appliance category with its actual state.  ...  FHMM allows a single observation to be related with the hidden variables of multiple independent Markov Chains. Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM) are also used TABLE I .  ... 
doi:10.1109/dsaa.2014.7058084 dblp:conf/dsaa/RidiGH14 fatcat:fggiakfptjgk3j2zot4wgvfysm

On a Training-Less Solution for Non-Intrusive Appliance Load Monitoring Using Graph Signal Processing

Bochao Zhao, Lina Stankovic, Vladimir Stankovic
2016 IEEE Access  
Indeed, the majority of NALM approaches, supervised or unsupervised, require training to build appliance models, and are sensitive to appliance changes in the house, thus requiring regular re-training.  ...  The main idea is to build upon the emerging field of graph signal processing to perform adaptive thresholding, signal clustering, and pattern matching.  ...  Hidden Semi-Markov Model factorial structure, respectively.  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2016.2557460 fatcat:vaj6tebls5fcdfvh4mpsaz6uc4

A comprehensive review of residential electricity load profile models

Elisavet Proedrou
2021 IEEE Access  
Thirty two residential electricity load profile models are identified and a new definition of the residential electricity load profile model is proposed.  ...  of the citizens and increased funding for the installation of privacy-proof smart-meters by the public and measurement campaigns are identified as possible solutions to the challenges faced by modellers  ...  If the main statistical technique used in a model was the Markov Chain technique, then the model is assigned to the Markov chain subgroup.  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2021.3050074 fatcat:5hbyc7dakravzg46kkvxigh7ti

The diversity of residential electricity demand – A comparative analysis of metered and simulated data

José Luis Ramírez-Mendiola, Philipp Grünewald, Nick Eyre
2017 Energy and Buildings  
Significant discrepancies were found in the distribution of households with respect to both overall electricity consumption and consumption of individual appliances.  ...  to the total annual demands, and the distributions of the annual demands of particular appliances.  ...  Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from: the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT), and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Ref.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.06.006 fatcat:pdqnninagvaadku725vwkojzv4

A renewed rise in global HCFC-141b emissions between 2017–2021

Luke M. Western, Alison L. Redington, Alistair J. Manning, Cathy M. Trudinger, Lei Hu, Stephan Henne, Xuekun Fang, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Christina Theodoridi, David S. Godwin, Jgor Arduini, Bronwyn Dunse (+23 others)
2022 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics  
If reported production and consumption are correct, our study suggests that the 2017–2021 rise is due to an increase in emissions from the bank when appliances containing HCFC-141b reach the end of their  ...  production and consumption of HCFC-141b for dispersive uses.  ...  We thank Arlyn Andrews for providing the WRF-STILT footprints and Nada Derek for Cape Grim data analysis. We greatly thank Phil DeCola for supporting some of NOAA's inverse modelling analyses.  ... 
doi:10.5194/acp-22-9601-2022 fatcat:2fv253kx3vhcxnwgxczsopfaqu

Stochastic model for electrical loads in Mediterranean residential buildings: Validation and applications

Joana Ortiz, Francesco Guarino, Jaume Salom, Cristina Corchero, Maurizio Cellura
2014 Energy and Buildings  
A detailed validation of the model has been done, analysing and comparing the results with Spanish and European data.  ...  In that sense and with the objective to reproduce this variability, a stochastic model to obtain load profiles of household electricity is developed.  ...  The use of appliances has been implemented by a semi-Markov process based on the presence of an occupant and their activity profiles. In a similar way, Neu et al.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.04.053 fatcat:edjiqesdefeodkauswrstzs7ny

Rule-based demand-side management of domestic hot water production with heat pumps in zero energy neighbourhoods

R. De Coninck, R. Baetens, D. Saelens, A. Woyte, L. Helsen
2013 Journal of Building Performance Simulation, Taylor & Francis  
The user behaviour is obtained from a stochastic model based on Markov chains and survival analysis. Different rule-based DSM control strategies are applied to the individual dwelling's DHW systems.  ...  The presented work assesses the potential of rule-based demand side management (DSM) applied to domestic hot water (DHW) production with heat pumps in dwellings for reducing the non-renewable energy use  ...  analyses for occupancy and embedded discrete-time Markov chains for the remainder.  ... 
doi:10.1080/19401493.2013.801518 fatcat:s4bx44qkbjet7gw2hul6hsxrwu

Analysis of Business Demography Using Markov Chains: An Application to Belgian Data

François Coppens, Fabienne Verduyn
2009 Social Science Research Network  
Abstract This paper applies the theory of finite Markov chains to analyse the demographic evolution of Belgian enterprises.  ...  Besides helping to provide a fuller picture of the evolution of the population, Markov chains also enable forecasts of its future composition to be made, as well as the computation of average lifetimes  ...  A time-dependent transition matrix models a Markov process.  ... 
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1684004 fatcat:tkncpma6nbfklaa7qtcbs75l24
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