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Arriving on time: estimating travel time distributions on large-scale road networks [article]

Timothy Hunter, Aude Hofleitner, Jack Reilly, Walid Krichene, Jerome Thai, Anastasios Kouvelas, Pieter Abbeel, Alexandre Bayen
2013 arXiv   pre-print
We propose a method to estimate travel time distributions on large-scale road networks, using probe vehicle data collected from GPS.  ...  Oftentimes, a more useful objective is to maximize the probability of on-time arrival, which requires statistical distributions of travel times, rather than just mean values.  ...  Another key feature of the algorithm is its computational complexity and its ability to scale on large road networks.  ... 
arXiv:1302.6617v1 fatcat:rfcy73j7pbgxdgxcmsovj7v7vu

Pruning Techniques for the Stochastic on-time Arrival Problem- An Experimental Study [article]

Moritz Kobitzsch, Samitha Samaranayake, Dennis Schieferdecker
2014 arXiv   pre-print
Running times can reach hours when considering large scale networks.  ...  Currently available algorithms compute shortest paths in mere fractions of a second on continental sized road networks.  ...  ., at an intersection in the road network) based on the cumulative travel time that has already been realized.  ... 
arXiv:1407.8295v1 fatcat:ojtluc43sjddnctaliotz4pzua

Traffic congestion prediction based on Estimated Time of Arrival

Noureen Zafar, Irfan Ul Haq
2020 PLoS ONE  
Our application is a desktop-based application that predicts traffic congestion state using Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA).  ...  With the rapid expansion of sensor technologies and wireless network infrastructure, research and development of traffic associated applications, such as real-time traffic maps, on-demand travel route  ...  Time variant distributions of the travel time of path sections have been visualized through the clustering algorithm. Rafidah Md Noor et al. [22, 23] have used SVR for predicting bus arrival time.  ... 
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0238200 pmid:33326460 pmcid:PMC7743965 fatcat:bceiyjnxf5hyfbew2uwlwi5yji

Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

Yang beibei Ji, Rui Jiang, Ming Qu, Edward Chung
2014 Mathematical Problems in Engineering  
The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard.  ...  The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads' STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010.  ...  SIMS is an incident management system which is used throughout Queensland, Australia, to capture traffic incidents which cause an impact on traffic flow on the road network.  ... 
doi:10.1155/2014/508039 fatcat:s2tffnglcna7tpc6pirpiqnim4

Bus Arrival Time Prediction Based on LSTM and Spatial-temporal Feature Vector

Hongjie Liu, Hongzhe Xu, Yu Yan, Zaishang Cai, Tianxu Sun, Wen Li
2020 IEEE Access  
road incidents, respectively.  ...  INDEX TERMS Artificial neural networks, bus arrival prediction, LSTM, spatial-temporal feature vector.  ...  In this situation, if only calculate the time until the end of the road according to the instantaneous speed, there will be a large deviation from the actual arrival time.  ... 
doi:10.1109/access.2020.2965094 fatcat:fbqkncce6fao3c72wuu3t4deqm

Towards Improved Vehicle Arrival Time Prediction in Public Transportation: Integrating SUMO and Kalman Filter Models

Ahmad Faisal Abidin, Mario Kolberg
2015 2015 17th UKSim-AMSS International Conference on Modelling and Simulation (UKSim)  
The arrival time will be predicted using a Kalman Filter (KF) model, by utilising information acquired from social networks.  ...  Social Networks feed road traffic information into the model, based on information provided by people who have witnessed events and then updated their social media accordingly.  ...  Social networks can distribute real time information on road traffic, which could potentially improve the accuracy of arrival time prediction. III.  ... 
doi:10.1109/uksim.2015.63 dblp:conf/uksim/AbidinK15 fatcat:rz7fgge745d7lc3jigh3mqwm54

Effects of Improving Forest Road Standards on Shortening the Arrival Time of Ground-based Firefighting Teams Accessing to the Forest Fires

Abdullah Emin AKAY, Ekaterina PODOLSKAİA, Zennure UÇAR
2021 European Journal of Forest Engineering  
road network in the study area.  ...  On the other hand, the accessible forested areas in critical response time increased from 17% to 36% when standards of the forest roads were improved.  ...  In a study conducted by Podolskaia et al. (2019) , the transport network model was used to estimate traveling time and distance to a forest fire.  ... 
doi:10.33904/ejfe.952174 fatcat:minejf2ri5bqhlcgw5ij4gy42e

An active approach to guaranteed arrival times based on traffic shaping

Dan Marinescu, Jan Curn, Marco Slot, Melanie Bouroche, Vinny Cahill
2010 13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems  
To address the goal of providing drivers on highways with guaranteed arrival times, we propose a traffic management system that combines virtual slots with semiautonomous driving to shape traffic and prevent  ...  Our initial results indicate that a slot-based system has the potential to be used to guarantee arrival times and provide a significant overall increase in efficiency when compared against a human driving  ...  Current state-of-the-art approaches to obtaining reliable travel time estimates are passive in the sense that they attempt to predict travel times using both historic traffic data and real-time traffic  ... 
doi:10.1109/itsc.2010.5625197 dblp:conf/itsc/MarinescuCSBC10 fatcat:23hg6ajaqbcpddwdymup3ury24

Using Evolution Strategies to Reduce Emergency Services Arrival Time in Case of Accident

Javier Barrachina, Piedad Garrido, Manuel Fogue, Francisco J. Martinez, Juan-Carlos Cano, Carlos T. Calafate, Pietro Manzoni
2013 2013 IEEE 25th International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence  
Results indicate that the Density-Based Evolution Strategy system is the best one among all the proposed solutions, since it offers the lowest emergency services travel times.  ...  services arrival time, and avoiding traffic jams when an accident occurs.  ...  SIMULATION ENVIRONMENT Regarding the traffic simulation, we use the Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO), an open source, microscopic, continuous-space traffic simulator designed to handle large road networks  ... 
doi:10.1109/ictai.2013.127 dblp:conf/ictai/BarrachinaGFMCCM13 fatcat:mwjxbk7nnbfcfdod7djruj3cyu

DeepETA: A Spatial-Temporal Sequential Neural Network Model for Estimating Time of Arrival in Package Delivery System

Fan Wu, Lixia Wu
2019 PROCEEDINGS OF THE THIRTIETH AAAI CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE TWENTY-EIGHTH INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE CONFERENCE  
Precisely estimating the time of packages' arrival (ETA) is significantly important to improving customers' experience and raising the efficiency of package dispatching.  ...  Existing methods mainly focus on predicting the time from an origin to a destination.  ...  network for estimating time of package arrival (DeepETA) is described in detail.  ... 
doi:10.1609/aaai.v33i01.3301774 fatcat:3pgjkv5lczhznh6u5kxi77ym54

Position Surveillance Using One Active Ranging Satellite and Time-of-Arrival of a Signal From An Independent Satellite

R. E. ANDERSON, R. L. FREY, J. R. LEWIS
1980 Navigation  
A towboat on the Mississippi River was equipped with a tone-code ranging transponder and a receiver tuned to the timing signals of the GOES satellite.  ...  Sponsoring Agency Code Supplementary Notes Abstract Position surveillance using one active ranging/communication satellite and the time-of-arr i val of signals from an independent satellite was shown to  ...  for the time of arrival referenced to a fixed location on the earth.  ... 
doi:10.1002/j.2161-4296.1980.tb01432.x fatcat:hb327mkfivcenl5sxlgei3ec3a

Large-network travel time distribution estimation for ambulances

Bradford S. Westgate, Dawn B. Woodard, David S. Matteson, Shane G. Henderson
2016 European Journal of Operational Research  
We propose a regression approach for estimating the distribution of a vehicle travel time on an arbitrary route in a road network.  ...  Our method is computationally efficient, scaling effectively to large road networks and large historical trip databases.  ...  Acknowledgements We thank Christopher Glessner for his work obtaining the TomTom estimates. We also thank Toronto EMS, Dave Lyons, TomTom, and The Optima Corporation.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2016.01.004 fatcat:dfuw4g5vlzgftpgb7ospgebawq

Travel Time Reliability in Vehicle Routing and Scheduling with Time Windows

Naoki Ando, Eiichi Taniguchi
2006 Networks and Spatial Economics  
Probe vehicle data of travel times were obtained from usual operation of pickup-delivery trucks in South Osaka area.  ...  This paper presents calibration of the Vehicle Routing and scheduling Problems with Time Windows-Probabilistic (VRPTW-P) model which takes into account the uncertainty of travel times.  ...  speeds for each road group and Fig. 5 includes the estimated triangular travel time distribution.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s11067-006-9285-8 fatcat:xbgtuml3hza67it23deezdyv3i

Multi View Spatial-Temporal Model for Travel Time Estimation [article]

ZiChuan Liu, Zhaoyang Wu, Meng Wang, Rui Zhang
2021 arXiv   pre-print
Experiments on large-scale taxi trajectory data show that our approach is more effective than the novel method.  ...  Traditional arrival time estimation methods mainly rely on traffic map feature extraction, which can not model complex situations and nonlinear spatial and temporal relationships.  ...  In [15] , the authors use Bayesian networks to estimating distributions of travel times which can infer travel time distribution from sparse GPS measurement data.  ... 
arXiv:2109.07402v2 fatcat:mmjbisapezba7d47hlsghsnkba

Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road

Mogens Fosgerau, Daisuke Fukuda
2012 Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies  
Such an investigation is a further 71 contribution of this paper. 72 We investigate these empirical questions using a large data set comprising observations of travel 73 times on an urban road.  ...  This paper therefore provides a detailed empirical investigation of the distribution of travel times on an urban road.  ...  it is not difficult to imagine an urban road network with a large number of links where 289 the associated standardized travel times might have heavy right tails because of a very few, but 290 serious  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.trc.2012.02.008 fatcat:5pxxbzrs5jejfjw5ixuogwbwje
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