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Actions, answers, and uncertainty: a decision-making perspective on Web-based question answering

David Azari, Eric Horvitz, Susan Dumais, Eric Brill
2004 Information Processing & Management  
We review a two-phased Bayesian analysis and present an expected-utility analysis of information-gathering policies using these inferences.  ...  The methods exploit the typical redundancy of information on the Web by making multiple queries to search engines and then combining the search results into an answer.  ...  Acknowledgments We thank David Weise for providing assistance with use of a statistical parser developed by the Natural Language Group at Microsoft.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ipm.2004.04.013 fatcat:rgnrsw4iazhkddzuh64rg3d5ui

A Computational Architecture for Conversation [chapter]

Eric Horvitz, Tim Paek
1999 CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences  
We describe representation, inference strategies, and control procedures employed in an automated conversation system named the Bayesian Receptionist.  ...  The prototype is focused on the domain of dialog about goals typically handled by receptionists at the front desks of buildings on the Microsoft corporate campus.  ...  We developed and implemented methods for performing costbenefit analysis to guide decisions about progression to the next level of detail, or to return to a previously examined level, based on inferred  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-7091-2490-1_20 fatcat:d5aw3dvllzhfpg7k33oz2lgszu

Research Findings and Strategies for Assessing Telemedicine Costs

Tim Reardon
2005 Telemedicine journal and e-health  
Cost savings and benefits are often suggested by the logic of its impact on health care and by the promise of technology, but definitive information on the costs and benefits remain elusive.  ...  Telemedicine cost studies will be assessed on their methods of statistical inference, use of critical economic concepts, and contextual definition for the determination of costs and benefits.  ...  Clinical research design and statistical inference have guided telemedicine cost evaluations.  ... 
doi:10.1089/tmj.2005.11.348 pmid:16035931 fatcat:j7smypkaofcwjlmhxhftopedoi

Accounting for aetiology: can regional surveillance data alongside host biomarker-guided antibiotic therapy improve treatment of febrile illness in remote settings?

Arjun Chandna, Lisa J. White, Tiengkham Pongvongsa, Mayfong Mayxay, Paul N. Newton, Nicholas P. J. Day, Yoel Lubell
2019 Wellcome Open Research  
We provide cost-effectiveness estimates for each strategy alone and then for an integrated approach using both interventions.  ...  In this modelling analysis, an integrated system incorporating point-of-care host biomarker testing and regional surveillance data appears highly cost-effective, and may warrant piloting in a real-life  ...  The simulated costs and benefits of each strategy across the 100 simulations and the cost-effectiveness frontier are shown in Figure 2 .  ... 
doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.14976.2 fatcat:ibwl5frztbdotdsuj3t4zssplu

Selective Application of Routine Preoperative Axillary Ultrasonography Reduces Costs for Invasive Breast Cancers

K. K. Turaga, A. Chau, J. M. Eatrides, J. V. Kiluk, N. Khakpour, C. Laronga, M. C. Lee
2011 The Oncologist  
On two-way sensitivity analysis, the cost benefit for axillary ultrasound was not seen in patients with a low risk for nodal metastasis. Conclusion.  ...  One-and two-way sensitivity analyses were performed to check the validity of our inferences.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENT This study was supported in part by the Don and Erika Wallace Breast Cancer Research Foundation. AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS  ... 
doi:10.1634/theoncologist.2010-0373 pmid:21572122 pmcid:PMC3228129 fatcat:cqvv6tbkkrdcvc2pr2fmkbeowy

A comparative analysis of health surveillance strategies for administrative video display terminal employees

Saki Gerassis, Alberto Abad, Javier Taboada, Ángeles Saavedra, Eduardo Giráldez
2019 BioMedical Engineering OnLine  
This information was used to build an influence diagram to evaluate the time and monetary costs associated with each diagnostic test and define an optimal protocol strategy based on occupational risks.  ...  The Bayesian network inferred age, sleep quality, activity level, smoking and the consumption of alcohol as risk factors.  ...  The optimized strategy (F) reduces costs by more than half (54%), whereas the various flexible strategy options reduce costs in an interval that ranges from 11 (B) to 41% (E), depending on the diagnostic  ... 
doi:10.1186/s12938-019-0737-z pmid:31829225 pmcid:PMC6907276 fatcat:lughesd6cfhufh34msogshwkxa

Accounting for aetiology: can regional surveillance data alongside host biomarker-guided antibiotic therapy improve treatment of febrile illness in remote settings?

Arjun Chandna, Lisa J. White, Tiengkham Pongvongsa, Mayfong Mayxay, Paul N. Newton, Nicholas P. J. Day, Yoel Lubell
2019 Wellcome Open Research  
We provide cost-effectiveness estimates for each strategy alone and then for an integrated approach using both interventions.  ...  In this modelling analysis, an integrated system incorporating point-of-care host biomarker testing and regional surveillance data appears highly cost-effective, and may warrant piloting in a real-life  ...  regional costs and benefits of each strategy across the 100 simulations and the cost-effectiveness frontier are shown in Figure 2 .  ... 
doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.14976.1 pmid:31245630 pmcid:PMC6589932 fatcat:3wl6n2266zepfneqljngggnkki

A Cyber Deception Defense Method Based on Signal Game to Deal with Network Intrusion

Chungang Gao, Yongjie Wang, Xinli Xiong, Konstantinos Fysarakis
2022 Security and Communication Networks  
Then, on the basis of the in-depth analysis of network attack and defense scenarios, a signal game model is constructed to describe the network attack and defense process, and a multistage attack and defense  ...  The experimental results show that the defense method proposed in this paper could guide the defender to implement the optimal defense strategy and achieve a better defense effect.  ...  However, the quantification of the benefits is based on an ideal environment.  ... 
doi:10.1155/2022/3949292 fatcat:tu5yhviobjenfjpc4tqtp2r7o4

The importance of learning when making inferences

Jorg Rieskamp
2008 Judgment and Decision Making  
For the second study, by Br"oder and Schiffer (2006), the SSL theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation.  ...  The experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective, which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences  ...  Cost-benefit approach to strategy selection The contingency model of Beach and Mitchell (1978) conceptualizes the selection of strategies as a cost-benefit analysis.  ... 
doaj:3e28278ad91a4c278fdb928257e8adf0 fatcat:fzbzfcdidfadljz6wkk7ori6ti

Computational rationality: A converging paradigm for intelligence in brains, minds, and machines

S. J. Gershman, E. J. Horvitz, J. B. Tenenbaum
2015 Science  
After growing up together, and mostly growing apart in the second half of the 20th century, the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), cognitive science, and neuroscience are reconverging on a shared  ...  Advances include the development of representations and inferential procedures for large-scale probabilistic inference and machinery for enabling reflection and decisions about tradeoffs in effort, precision  ...  A net value of action is derived as the difference between the expected value of action based on a current analysis and the cost of computation required to attain the level of analysis.  ... 
doi:10.1126/science.aac6076 pmid:26185246 fatcat:vpr6ke7czvhdpa4dnebvize7yq

Management of treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 patients: a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment options

P. A. Cortesi, A. Ciaccio, M. Rota, J. K. Lim, S. De Salvia, S. Okolicsanyi, M. Vinci, L. S. Belli, L. G. Mantovani, M. Strazzabosco
2014 Journal of Viral Hepatitis  
We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of boceprevir (BOC)-and telaprevir (TVR)-based triple therapy according to different patients' selection strategies.  ...  The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for F1-F4 strategy relative to F3-F4 was €5132 per quality-adjusted life years gained, across TVR IL-28B-guided  ...  This work was an independent research and was not funded. MS and JL were funded by the NIH Grant DK34989: Silvio O. Conte Digestive Diseases Research Core Centers.  ... 
doi:10.1111/jvh.12278 pmid:25040391 pmcid:PMC4519006 fatcat:ro5oqexsbrccboe2qc5iueebva

Statistical considerations in economic evaluations: a guide for cardiologists

S. D. Reed
2014 European Heart Journal  
cost estimation can have a greater impact on the overall usefulness of an economic evaluation to guide decision-making.  ...  Distributional characteristics of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios With individual patient-level data on costs and effectiveness, one can make statistical inferences about the ICER.  ... 
doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehu174 pmid:24801070 fatcat:unqtgepcyrfgblxtkljugwqfza

An Integrated Perspective on Phylogenetic Workflows

August Guang, Felipe Zapata, Mark Howison, Charles E. Lawrence, Casey W. Dunn
2016 Trends in Ecology & Evolution  
A generative model and probabilistic framework provide a unified perspective to assess the costs and benefits of relaxing these assumptions, helps identify what methods and tools are missing, and provides  ...  How each of these analysis components is implemented and integrated is an important decision in designing a phylogenetic study [1] .  ...  Thanks to Sam Church for feedback on the manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.tree.2015.12.007 pmid:26775796 fatcat:xyc7tpnk3fa2fgqdlouminiz2a

Supporting Situation Assessment Through Attention Guidance: A Cost-Benefit and Depth of Processing Analysis

William J. Horrey, Christopher D. Wickens
2001 Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting  
Those participants who detected the failure were inferred to have processed the cues more deeply on the memory trials. The costs and benefits of automated cueing are discussed.  ...  On 2 trials a memory probe was administered to assess the depth of processing of information, and on the final trial an automation failure was presented.  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank Sharon Yeakel for her time and programming skills, and two anonymous reviewers for their comments and feedback.  ... 
doi:10.1177/154193120104500411 fatcat:mlyse2hc3rhubgfz5xpdkkjz6u

New Protease Inhibitors for the Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C

Shan Liu, Lauren E. Cipriano, Mark Holodniy, Douglas K. Owens, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert
2012 Annals of Internal Medicine  
Results were sensitive to the cost of protease inhibitors and treatment adherence rates. Data on the long-term comparative effectiveness of the new protease inhibitors are lacking.  ...  To assess the cost-effectiveness of new protease inhibitors and an interleukin (IL)-28B genotyping assay for treating chronic hepatitis C virus. Decision-analytic Markov model.  ...  The solid lines represent the cost-effectiveness frontier, those strategies that are potentially cost-effective depending on one's willingness to pay per unit of health benefit gained, expressed as an  ... 
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-156-4-201202210-00005 pmid:22351713 pmcid:PMC3586733 fatcat:nledkuqapbdybohq3q3kvpotsa
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