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An Early Warning System for the Prediction of Criminal Careers [chapter]

Tim K. Cocx, Walter A. Kosters, Jeroen F. J. Laros
2008 Lecture Notes in Computer Science  
A deployed early warning system could benefit the cause by supplying an automated alarm after every apprehension, sounding when this perpetrator is likely to become a career criminal.  ...  Dismantling networks of career criminals is one of the focus points of modern police forces.  ...  Acknowledgment This research is part of the DALE (Data Assistance for Law Enforcement) project as financed in the ToKeN program from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) under grant  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-540-88636-5_7 fatcat:ncumcobnsfgefa4w6uftpjj4dm

Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories [chapter]

John F. Macleod, Peter G. Grove, David P. Farrington
2012 Explaining Criminal Careers  
For example, Moffi tt's ( 1993 ) theory specifi es that there are two types of offenders: life-course-persistent, who have an early onset and a long criminal career, and adolescence-limited, who have a  ...  The most important of these theories of criminal careers have been inspired by the work of Alfred Blumstein.  ...  In the early days of computers in the 1960s, he developed the fi rst major model of the criminal justice system (the JUSSIM model) which was a fl ow diagram that predicted, for example, the effects of  ... 
doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697243.003.0001 fatcat:7ufzjhm5y5fynpsi2lvlhzy6ca

Criminal Policy Implications [chapter]

John F. Macleod, Peter G. Grove, David P. Farrington
2012 Explaining Criminal Careers  
In this chapter, we outline some of the policy implications of the theory, and especially what the theory says about the effect of conviction and imprisonment on criminal careers.  ...  In this book, we have proposed and tested a simple theory of criminal careers that makes exact quantitative predictions, and we have applied it to several different cross-sectional and longitudinal databases  ...  as the police, and improvements in the effectiveness of the warnings, reprimands and cautions issued by the police; • increase the effi ciency of the criminal justice system.  ... 
doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697243.003.0008 fatcat:gihadtrb7nb73e4v6i3drtnknu

Concept Discovery Innovations in Law Enforcement: A Perspective

Jonas Poelmans, Paul Elzinga, Stijn Viaene, Guido Dedene
2010 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Networking and Collaborative Systems  
In this paper, we give an overview of the concept discovery projects at the Amsterdam-Amstelland police where Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) is being used as text mining instrument.  ...  The combination of this concept discovery and refinement technique with statistical techniques for analyzing high-dimensional data not only resulted in new insights but often in actual improvements of  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authors would like to thank the police of Amsterdam-Amstelland for granting them the liberty to conduct and publish this research.  ... 
doi:10.1109/incos.2010.18 dblp:conf/incos/PoelmansEVD10 fatcat:b47gxcypvbb7zo7hh4j23btfyq

Can Criminologists Change the World? Critical Reflections on the Politics, Performance and Effects of Criminal Justice

Lesley McAra
2016 British Journal of Criminology  
context as well having the highest potential for real-world transformation.  ...  Based on a Scottish case study, this article offers a critical reflection on criminal justice and the impact agenda.  ...  These were all factors which analysis showed increased the propensity for young people to come into contact with the juvenile justice system at an early age.  ... 
doi:10.1093/bjc/azw015 fatcat:5vy7fh7pxbhc5kbpiu6e4v4wyi

Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending? [chapter]

John F. Macleod, Peter G. Grove, David P. Farrington
2012 Explaining Criminal Careers  
list convictions and make estimates of the recidivism probability p and conviction-rate parameter l for trivial offences.  ...  These parameter values depended on the assumed size of the trivial offender category which may or may not include the high-risk/low-rate category of standard list offenders.  ...  The rise in the number of convictions during the early teenage years is explained by the progressive change from informal sanctions for antisocial/criminal behaviour, through police warnings and cautions  ... 
doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697243.003.0005 fatcat:mlu52gtr65ekfadmuoex75wa2e

How many complaints against police officers can be abated by incapacitating a few "bad apples?"

Aaron Chalfin, Jacob Kaplan
2021 Criminology & Public Policy  
By assembling some of the first empirical evidence on the likely magnitude of incapacitation effects, we provide critical support for the idea that early warning systems must be designed, above all, to  ...  But is removing the bad apples likely to have an appreciable effect on police misconduct?  ...  For an excellent reference on the development of machine learning algorithms in the US criminal justice system, we refer readers to R.  ... 
doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12542 fatcat:enretmck2jdkzgbkp4uvtvzjxu


2003 Criminology (Beverly Hills)  
We conclude that desistance processes are at work even among active offenders and predicted lifecourse persisters, and that childhood prognoses account poorly for long-term trajectories of offending.  ...  Linking recently collected data to form what is arguably the longest longitudinal study of crime to date, this paper examines trajectories of offending over the life course of delinquent boys followed  ...  At the very least, it appears that state level data provide an important foundation for a study of criminal careers over the life span.  ... 
doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.2003.tb00997.x fatcat:aufvvnxzmjex3ksuazm6m25xrq

Historical Aspect of Crime Analysis [article]

Banuka N. De Silva
They analyse these events for any possible causes, often forecast or predict potential events, and issue updates, reports and warnings to their departments.  ...  The main purpose of this article was to identify the historical development of crime analysis.  ...  and percentage of career criminals convicted.  ... 
doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.13280954.v1 fatcat:sf2exfcc4nhrpdu4fgm7cs5wfm

Early Transition Stages and Heterogeneity in Criminal Careers among Young Offenders*

Bruce L. Arnold, Fiona M. Kay
1999 Canadian Review of Sociology/Revue canadienne de sociologie  
However, because our focus is on the early stages of the onset of criminal careers, except for a few cases the youths will not yet have been designated as SHOs during the periods used for our analysis  ...  The Life Course and Criminality Studies of conventional and criminal careers share close parallels with respect to the importance of early life events.  ... 
doi:10.1111/j.1755-618x.1999.tb02481.x fatcat:ntquhwkqorh3fc4dsok775jn6e

Kids, Groups and Crime: Some Implications of a Well-Known Secret

Franklin E. Zimring
1981 Journal of criminal law & criminology  
To do this is to generate the phenomenon of the well-known secret, an obvious fact we ignore.  ...  theories of criminal activity.  ...  A book length report on this research is forthcoming. tween predictive attributes or events that occur early in an adolescent career and those predictive events that occur more proximately to the transition  ... 
doi:10.2307/1143269 fatcat:es7wdaebh5evvkhqz5kitziune

The Theory and a Simple Model [chapter]

John F. Macleod, Peter G. Grove, David P. Farrington
2012 Explaining Criminal Careers  
Orientation In Chapter 2 we have seen that an analysis of a large number of detailed criminal careers of those who have at some time been convicted of a serious (standard list) offence indicates the existence  ...  In this chapter we will describe our theory which explains these results and we will construct a three category model to predict independent criminal history data.  ...  For an individual, the rate of offending or conviction remains constant throughout the criminal career; see Blumstein et al ( 1986 ) and Farrington (1986) .  ... 
doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697243.003.0003 fatcat:rlkdwhl4ujfanmuxio2v4p6ise

FORESEC: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project [chapter]

Ville Brummer, Clementine Burnley, Henrik Carlsen, Ana-Maria Duta, Bastian Giegerich, Raphaële Magoni
2011 Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks  
He has previously worked for an international foreign policy think tank.  ...  He has authored works on political risks for the Institute of Risk Management's 'Managing Business Risk' compendium, is a regular keynote speaker at major business conferences and is frequently interviewed  ...  At King's she is working in the framework of the FORESIGHT project, concentrating on the Balkan conflicts, on the early-warning systems of France, the OSCE and the UN, and on political communication and  ... 
doi:10.1057/9780230316911_4 fatcat:eqlkcqnujbb2pec2lhhmn7vv6i

Problem officers? Analyzing problem behavior patterns from a large cohort

Christopher J. Harris
2010 Journal of criminal justice  
The policing literature offered little guidance for exploring problem behaviors over the course of officers' careers; therefore, the criminal career paradigm was employed as a means for framing and analyzing  ...  Using a retrospective, longitudinal data set gathered from a large police department in the northeastern United States, patterns of citizen complaints for a large cohort of officers were examined using  ...  Acknowledgements I would like to thank Rob Worden, Brandon Welsh, and David Hirschel for their suggestions and insights and am indebted to Jorge Chavez for his aid with Proc Traj. Notes  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2010.01.003 fatcat:gaet7yq4tzbnxpapkeo7wr7rpy

Commentary: Dangerous patients or dangerous diseases?

P. J Taylor, J. Monahan
1996 BMJ (Clinical Research Edition)  
The reviewers themselves acknowledged that prediction of violence from an established violence career is an easier task than first prediction of violence.  ...  Furthermore, important lessons may be learned from experience in the criminal justice system.  ... 
doi:10.1136/bmj.312.7036.967 pmid:8616317 pmcid:PMC2350771 fatcat:a4xolwyfp5af3dee5g3z6cdowm
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