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Thresholds for Conservation and Management: Structured Decision Making as a Conceptual Framework [chapter]

James D. Nichols, Mitchell J. Eaton, Julien Martin
2014 Application of Threshold Concepts in Natural Resource Decision Making  
A conceptual framework is provided for considering the threshold concept in natural resource management and conservation. We define three kinds of thresholds relevant to management and conservation.  ...  We advocate a structured decision making (SDM) approach within which the following components are identified: objectives (possibly including utility thresholds), potential actions, models (possibly including  ...  Ecological models need not include thresholds, as threshold concepts may not be relevant to the dynamics of all ecological systems.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-1-4899-8041-0_2 fatcat:dlrbmti24ba7hn3lvvk3sex2a4

Strategies for Avoiding Neglect of Opportunity Costs by Decision-Makers

Jonathan Karnon, Andrew Partington, Hossein Afzali
2021 Applied Health Economics and Health Policy  
Lomas et al. suggest analysts should interpret the findings of published cost-effectiveness analyses with respect to the relevant policy threshold as well as a threshold informed by relevant estimates  ...  Cost-effectiveness thresholds represent decision-makers' maximum monetary valuation of a unit of outcome (typically a quality-adjusted life-year; QALY) in the context of decisions regarding the public  ... 
doi:10.1007/s40258-021-00681-1 pmid:34468955 fatcat:xmt42zp4uraxhj2mwlya64xpke

The effect of "robust" integrator dynamics on decision-making performance

Nicholas Cain, Andrea Barreiro, Mike Shadlen, Eric Shea-Brown
2010 BMC Neuroscience  
The drift-diffusion model of decision-making provides a framework to explain performance statistics of twoalternative perceptual decision-making tasks.  ...  Following the approach of previous work, we derived a firing rate model for the dynamics of the integrator parameterized by biophysically relevant quantities.  ...  The authors also acknowledge funding support from the Northwest Center for Neural Engineering, and a Burroughs-Wellcome Fund Career Award at the Scientific Interface (E.S.-B.). Author details  ... 
doi:10.1186/1471-2202-11-s1-p97 pmid:20707883 pmcid:PMC2930628 fatcat:4v6kplkonjbdxglqtptjbh46cm

Bistability preserving model reduction in apoptosis [article]

Steffen Waldherr, Thomas Eissing, Madalena Chaves, Frank Allgower
2007 arXiv   pre-print
These properties are important for the operation of the system in the context of a larger network. As an application example, a bistable model for caspase activation in apoptosis is considered.  ...  We present an approach to reduce the order of a bistable dynamical system significantly while preserving bistability and the switching threshold.  ...  The first goal is to get a good quantitative approximation of the original model, such that a solution of the reduced model will differ as little as possible from a solution of the full model in the relevant  ... 
arXiv:q-bio/0702011v1 fatcat:cmvxqkdbcjebzf4ieid23xjv7y

BISTABILITY PRESERVING MODEL REDUCTION IN APOPTOSIS

Steffen Waldherr, Thomas Eissing, Madalena Chaves, Frank Allgöower
2007 IFAC Proceedings Volumes  
These properties are important for the operation of the system in the context of a larger network. As an application example, a bistable model for caspase activation in apoptosis is considered.  ...  We present an approach to reduce the order of a bistable dynamical system significantly while preserving bistability and the switching threshold.  ...  The first goal is to get a good quantitative approximation of the original model, such that a solution of the reduced model will differ as little as possible from a solution of the full model in the relevant  ... 
doi:10.3182/20070604-3-mx-2914.00072 fatcat:e4ppuuzd7ja3lf32riwkmwcr6m

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

Julien Martin, Michael C. Runge, James D. Nichols, Bruce C. Lubow, William L. Kendall
2009 Ecological Applications  
Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature.  ...  Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process.  ...  Geological Survey Status and Trends of Biological Resource Program for funding this project. We are particularly grateful to Paul Geissler for sponsoring and coordinating funding for this research.  ... 
doi:10.1890/08-0255.1 pmid:19688917 fatcat:q2bhw7jgcbdlreujduhrtbatq4

Modeling Contextual Knowledge for Clinical Decision Support

Margarita Sordo, Priyaranjan Tokachichu, Christopher J Vitale, Saverio M Maviglia, Roberto A Rocha
2018 AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings  
In theory, the logic of decision rules should be atomic.  ...  Contextual knowledge is re-usable on its own and could be modeled separately from the logic of a rule without losing the intended functionality.  ...  Discussion We have demonstrated the feasibility of the modeling strategy proposed above by implementing relevant test scenarios through our analysis of the clinical decision rules in the aforementioned  ... 
pmid:29854232 pmcid:PMC5977672 fatcat:6y3azlnorzczdpv6xmhqzocw5m

Evaluating algorithmic fairness in the presence of clinical guidelines: the case of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimation [article]

Agata Foryciarz, Stephen R. Pfohl, Nigam Shah, Birju Patel
2021 medRxiv   pre-print
An equalized odds constraint, meant to equalize error rates across groups, does so by miscalibrating the model overall and at relevant decision thresholds.  ...  decision thresholds.  ...  Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding bodies.  ... 
doi:10.1101/2021.11.08.21266076 fatcat:3zxcbtejwze7hg7ltgc37ywwca

Evaluating algorithmic fairness in the presence of clinical guidelines: the case of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimation

Agata Foryciarz, Stephen R Pfohl, Birju Patel, Nigam Shah
2022 BMJ Health & Care Informatics  
at guideline-concordant decision thresholds.ResultsWe find that, compared with the unconstrained model, group-recalibration improves calibration at one of the relevant thresholds for each group, but exacerbates  ...  An equalised odds constraint, meant to equalise error rates across groups, does so by miscalibrating the model overall and at relevant decision thresholds.DiscussionHence, because of induced miscalibration  ...  of relevant harms and benefits for all subgroups, 15 16 therapeutic decisions could be unfair if thresholds used for different groups differ, as they would lead to suboptimal treatment decisions for  ... 
doi:10.1136/bmjhci-2021-100460 pmid:35396247 pmcid:PMC8996004 fatcat:e2yne2eqtfasrme7jfquubi6se

Combined Benefit of Prediction and Treatment: A Criterion for Evaluating Clinical Prediction Models

Dean Billheimer, Eugene W. Gerner, Christine E. McLaren, Bonnie LaFleur
2014 Cancer Informatics  
The goal of the CB criterion is to evaluate the clinical relevance of a prediction model and treatment decisions based on the predictive distributions.  ...  These smaller thresholds are more relevant for this chemoprevention treatment decision. Discussion Summary.  ...  The prior probability of inclusion of each predictor was 0.3. Sensitivity analysis indicated that similar results were obtained over a range of prior values (0.10-0.50).  ... 
doi:10.4137/cin.s13780 pmid:25336898 pmcid:PMC4197927 fatcat:u2wzdojb6jd3fo5uvwip6bqgji

Early Uncertainty Quantification for an Improved Decision Support Modeling Workflow: A Streamflow Reliability and Water Quality Example

Brioch Hemmings, Matthew J. Knowling, Catherine R. Moore
2020 Frontiers in Earth Science  
In this paper, we present a decision support modeling workflow where early quantification of model uncertainty guides ongoing model design and deployment decisions.  ...  of its consistency with historical observations; ii) validation of model design or indication of areas of model shortcomings; iii) evaluation of the relative proximity of management decision thresholds  ...  The recast workflow involves exploration of the prior decision-relevant forecast uncertainty relative to decision thresholds, as well as prior distributions of model outputs relative to system observations  ... 
doi:10.3389/feart.2020.565613 fatcat:khqawvzmszgolob464v34l2sky

Patient-specific workup of adrenal incidentalomas

Romy R. de Haan, Johannes B.R. Visser, Ewoud Pons, Richard A. Feelders, Uzay Kaymak, M.G. Myriam Hunink, Jacob J. Visser
2017 European Journal of Radiology Open  
To develop a clinical prediction model to predict a clinically relevant adrenal disorder for patients with adrenal incidentaloma.  ...  The prediction model is evaluated on its usefulness in clinical practice using decision curve analysis (DCA) based on different threshold probabilities.  ...  The prediction model generates a probability of having a clinically relevant adrenal disorder for every individual patient.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.ejro.2017.08.002 pmid:28932767 pmcid:PMC5596359 fatcat:kmqwalho3jcqdj54bgik4r2hni

On evaluation of adaptive topic tracking systems

Tamer Elsayed, Douglas W. Oard
2005 Proceedings of the 28th annual international ACM SIGIR conference on Research and development in information retrieval - SIGIR '05  
Topic model quality is assessed at a predefined set of points using a fixed document set to enhance comparability.  ...  Summative evaluation methods for supervised adaptive topic tracking systems convolve the effect of system decisions on present utility with the effect on future utility.  ...  This suggests that starting with a relatively strict threshold and relaxing that threshold somewhat as relevant documents are discovered might be a productive strategy when using models of this design.  ... 
doi:10.1145/1076034.1076146 dblp:conf/sigir/ElsayedO05 fatcat:mb4np45hnjdjllneo546laneh4

Temporal stimulus segmentation by reinforcement learning in populations of spiking neurons [article]

Luisa Le Donne, Robert Urbanczik, Walter Senn, Giancarlo La Camera
2020 bioRxiv   pre-print
The model uses a biologically plausible plasticity rule and learns from the reinforcement of correct decisions taken at the right time.  ...  Here, we introduce a neural circuit model that can learn to identify action-relevant stimuli embedded in a spatio-temporal stream of spike trains, while learning to ignore stimuli that are not behaviorally  ...  As most traditional models of decision making, these models require a neural population encoding each stimulus, a priori knowledge of the relevant stimuli, and knowledge of their onset and offset times  ... 
doi:10.1101/2020.12.22.424037 fatcat:xrpf6agg4bdmnpsahrqwhwfkxe

Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria

Steven Simoens
2010 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health  
of nine criteria that inform decisions.  ...  This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments.  ...  The author has no conflicts of interest that are directly relevant to the content of this manuscript.  ... 
doi:10.3390/ijerph7041835 pmid:20617062 pmcid:PMC2872336 fatcat:jqblnhq4eveg5f2ind4qvn4hfy
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