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Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific

Jaclyn N. Brown, Alex Sen Gupta, Josephine R. Brown, Les C. Muir, James S. Risbey, Penny Whetton, Xuebin Zhang, Alexandre Ganachaud, Brad Murphy, Susan E. Wijffels
2012 Climatic Change  
Regional climate projections in the Pacific region are potentially sensitive to a range of existing model biases.  ...  These approaches include model selection, calculating multi model means, downscaling and bias correcting.  ...  Multi-model means Use of a multi-model mean, in general, results in a better simulation of the current climate than any individual model (Reichler and Kim 2008) .  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0603-5 fatcat:3jbdiudiezce3epoh65y3v663e

Direct and component-wise bias correction of multi-variate climate indices: the percentile adjustment function diagnostic tool

A. Casanueva, J. Bedia, S. Herrera, J. Fernández, J. M. Gutiérrez
2018 Climatic Change  
The direct bias correction of the multi-variate CI stands as a usual alternative, since it preserves the physical and temporal coherence among the primary variables as represented in the dynamical model  ...  Case studies are frequently based on multi-variate climate indices (CIs) combining two or more essential climate variables, that are frequently individually corrected prior to CI calculation.  ...  from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) for making available the ENSEM-BLES RegCM3 and RACMO2 regional climate models, respectively.  ... 
doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2167-5 fatcat:jbwmtuecyraahf5ytujoidjuli

Climate projections of a multi-variate heat stress index: the role of downscaling and bias correction

Ana Casanueva, Sven Kotlarski, Sixto Herrera, Andreas M. Fischer, Tord Kjellstrom, Cornelia Schwierz
2019 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions  
in a multi-variate framework.  ...  The evaluation in present climate of such multivariate indices should be performed with caution since biases in the individual variables might compensate, thus leading to better performance for the wrong  ...  Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals  ... 
doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-294 fatcat:laxccibwmvbf5pqcvuhlmiv7ee

Evaluation of the performance of Euro-CORDEX RCMs for assessing hydrological climate change impacts in Great Britain: a comparison of different spatial resolutions and quantile mapping bias correction methods [article]

Ernesto Pasten-Zapata, Julie Jones, Helen Moggridge, Martin Widmann
2019 arXiv   pre-print
Overall, an increase in RCM resolution does not imply a better simulation of hydrology and bias-correction represents an alternative to ease decision-making.  ...  Bias correction does not improve the representation of daily temporal variability, but it does for monthly variability, in particular when applying DGQM.  ...  The biases are a consequence of systematic model biases in the elevation and a lack of representation of the elevation variability.  ... 
arXiv:1907.09043v1 fatcat:6jp65bwnhvfx7jgdmqkjpxiskm

Exploring an Alternative Configuration of the Hydroclimatic Modeling Chain, Based on the Notion of Asynchronous Objective Functions

Simon Ricard, Jean-Daniel Sylvain, François Anctil
2019 Water  
Consequently, the alternative configuration circumvent the redundant usage of climate observation operated within conventional configurations for statistical post-processing of simulated climate variables  ...  The WaSiM-ETH hydrological model is forced with a bias-corrected member of the Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE).  ...  This loss can be explained by a sensitivity of the hydrologic model to residual biases or inconsistency within post-processed climate variables.  ... 
doi:10.3390/w11102012 fatcat:hou3t6psrfgz3dqvz463su62l4

Projected Change—Models and Methodology [chapter]

Joanna Wibig, Douglas Maraun, Rasmus Benestad, Erik Kjellström, Philip Lorenz, Ole Bøssing Christensen
2015 Regional Climate Studies  
General (global) circulation models (GCMs) are a useful tool for studying how climate may change in the future. Although GCMs have high temporal resolution, their spatial resolution is low.  ...  The skill of methods for describing regional climate futures is also limited by natural climate variability.  ...  Model Output Statistics The biggest disadvantage of the RCM methodology is probably the occurrence of systematic biases in the present climate simulations.  ... 
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_10 fatcat:vcqxzqivhjbdbfaot6t45jdkdu

Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics

Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Rene Orth, Markus Reichstein, Martha Vogel, Sonia I. Seneviratne
2017 Earth System Dynamics  
In summary, our approach offers a physically consistent, diagnostic-based avenue to evaluate multi-model ensembles and subsequently reduce model biases in simulated and projected extreme temperatures.  ...  Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble.  ...  Furthermore, we acknowledge the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office and the Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Service Center (DISC) for the dissemination of MERRA, MERRA-LAND, and GLDAS  ... 
doi:10.5194/esd-8-387-2017 fatcat:2rdmj5zabzajdmy6kxt3ijroai

Crystal balls into the future: are global circulation and water balance models ready?

Balázs M. Fekete, Giovanna Pisacane, Dominik Wisser
2016 Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences  
</strong> Variabilities and changes due to natural and anthropogenic causes in the water cycle always presented a challenge for water management planning.  ...  Recently, this practice was questioned and more reliance on Global Circulation Models was put forward as an alternative for water management plannig.  ...  circulation model projections, but provided funding for the water balance model simulations.  ... 
doi:10.5194/piahs-374-41-2016 fatcat:2g4eljgowvfczmpcieymhpdn5i

Water resources climate change projections using supervised nonlinear and multivariate soft computing techniques

Ali Sarhadi, Donald H. Burn, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma
2016 Journal of Hydrology  
predictors, as well as the biases that exist in climate model simulations.  ...  To correct the spatial and temporal biases over multiple time scales in the GCM predictands, the Multivariate Recursive Nesting Bias Correction (MRNBC) approach is used.  ...  Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.040 fatcat:b5nm4ygtrja3bhfuxuqcj2mhza

Impact of projected sea surface temperature biases on tropical cyclones projections in the South Pacific

C. Dutheil, M. Lengaigne, M. Bador, J. Vialard, J. Lefèvre, N. C. Jourdain, S. Jullien, A. Peltier, B. Sultan, C. Menkès
2020 Scientific Reports  
However these simulations suffer from long-standing biases in their Sea Surface Temperature (SST).  ...  from global climate models.  ...  This method however does not correct for the systematic biases (i.e. common to all models) in the SST response to anthropogenic forcing.  ... 
doi:10.1038/s41598-020-61570-6 pmid:32179775 fatcat:odfb3kq6v5aazhyistxk5mvj6e

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

U. Ehret, E. Zehe, V. Wulfmeyer, K. Warrach-Sagi, J. Liebert
2012 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions  
Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change  ...  The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions  ...  Gupta for a stimulating discussion on the topic. 20 We acknowledge support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and Open Access Publishing Fund of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.  ... 
doi:10.5194/hessd-9-5355-2012 fatcat:nmy23h6xdrdchltftljocplmyu

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

U. Ehret, E. Zehe, V. Wulfmeyer, K. Warrach-Sagi, J. Liebert
2012 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences  
This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step) has now become a standard procedure in climate  ...  </strong> Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate  ...  In general, the biases corrected for are a function of time, space and meteorological variable and spread in a non-uniform way through the entire distribution of the variables.  ... 
doi:10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012 fatcat:fokjpgodt5ecjj6foqxzfcnvve

Evaluation of the performance of Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Models for assessing hydrological climate change impacts in Great Britain: a comparison of different spatial resolutions and quantile mapping bias correction methods

Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Julie M. Jones, Helen Moggridge, Martin Widmann
2020 Journal of Hydrology  
The biases are a consequence of systematic model biases in the elevation and a lack of 340 representation of the elevation variability.  ...  Bias-correction provides an alternative to 636 reduce the biases and multi-model spread, making decision-making easier.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124653 fatcat:sysplpvm3bfznlpbqca5hopbhq

Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus

Matthew H. England, Jules B. Kajtar, Nicola Maher
2015 Nature Climate Change  
This demonstrates the robust nature of twenty-first century warming projections.  ...  The hiatus in warming has led to questions about the reliability of long-term projections, yet here we show they are statistically unchanged when considering only ensemble members that capture the recent  ...  Figure 1 | 1 Global average SAT anomalies relative to 1880-1900 in individual and multi-model mean CMIP5 simulations.  ... 
doi:10.1038/nclimate2575 fatcat:na2n5xcyknbufihpw34sbylzh4

Synthetic Impacts of Internal Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Change on Future Meteorological Droughts over China

Lei Gu, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hui-Min Wang, LiPing Zhang
2018 Water  
Overall, this study proposed a method of taking into account internal climate variability in drought assessment, which is of significant importance in climate change impact studies.  ...  In order to specifically consider the ICV in drought impacts, this study investigates the changes in meteorological drought conditions for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) relative to a historical  ...  Group on Coupled Modelling for making available their climate model outputs (CSIRO MK3.6), and the CEMS1 (CAM) large ensemble community project for providing the large ensemble of CESM1 data.  ... 
doi:10.3390/w10111702 fatcat:fox4y36p6nbxxo5db6w4ve6lse
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