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Un A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence

Antonio Lorenzo Sánchez, Jose Angel Olivas
2019 Journal of Computer Science and Technology  
The methodology is applied to the case study of the Spanish general elections of April 2019.  ...  Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation and forecasting can consider expert judgments on the subject.  ...  As an application of the proposed method, a case study will be carried out in the Spanish Elections to forecast the results in 2019.  ... 
doi:10.24215/16666038.19.e14 fatcat:j6f6teh7krbmpgt452ta7v6r6i

Predicting Election Results using NLTK

2019 VOLUME-8 ISSUE-10, AUGUST 2019, REGULAR ISSUE  
The research work proposed a machine learning-based classifier to extract the tweets on elections and analyze the opinion of the tweeples (people who use twitter).  ...  Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK) is a library based on machine learning methods in python & sentiment analysis tool. Which provides the base for text processing and classification?  ...  Bandung (West Java capital city) major election, and 2014 General elections, failed to predict the winner or have a large gap between the forecasts and the election results.  ... 
doi:10.35940/ijitee.a4399.119119 fatcat:aq6sxjb44nfgvkkpxyzpr7lueu

Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project

William E. Halal
2013 Technological forecasting & social change  
This research report presents latest results on the TechCast Project, first reported in Technology Forecasting & Social Change 14 years ago [1] .  ...  We also examine examples of how organizations develop technology strategy to compete in an era of economic transformation, and conclude by analyzing the role of forecasting as one of many methods for reducing  ...  Acknowledgments The author gratefully acknowledges contributions of Dexter Snyder, Henry Heilbrunn, Michael Marien, Paul Saffo, and Devin Fidler.  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.008 fatcat:s4noqj7wvbdk5gu5kvpjxposfe

The Meaning, Causes, and Possible Results of the 2016 Presidential Election

Elizabeth Sanders
2017 The Forum  
Donald Trump owes his election to post-1972 changes in party institutions and economic developments that were largely the result of presidential policies supported by both parties.  ...  Political scientists and pundits who relied on survey data and assumptions about motives and character of Trump supporters failed to understand the deep causes of the 2016 election outcome, and to inform  ...  Methods, Predictions, and Interpretations of the 2016 Election Conventional ahistorical survey analysis predicted that Hillary Clinton would comfortably win the election on November 8.  ... 
doi:10.1515/for-2017-0046 fatcat:34jtg6xwwrgdhbpnfwmsgg4lp4

Forecasting Elections: Do Prediction Markets Tells Us Anything More Than The Polls?

Dr Brent Davis
2017 Zenodo  
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (as a novelty pursued by a few 'quants') toward the mainstream of the discipline.  ...  Amongst the most high profile of election forecasting techniques are prediction markets and vote-intention polls.  ...  One study (Gurkaynak and Wolfers, 2005) comparing the results of the "Economic Derivatives" market to surveys of market economists of certain economic outcomes found the market-based predictions encompassed  ... 
doi:10.5281/zenodo.583883 fatcat:fhfpufzsinhpjf5pqbavpp2tni

Business Intelligence and Big Data in Higher Education: Status of a Multi-Year Model Curriculum Development Effort for Business School Undergraduates, MS Graduates, and MBAs

Babita Gupta, Michael Goul, Barbara Dinter
2015 Communications of the Association for Information Systems  
Business intelligence (BI), "big data", and analytics solutions are being deployed in an increasing number of organizations, yet recent predictions point to severe shortages in the number of graduates  ...  It focuses on adding appropriate elective courses to existing curriculum in order to foster the development of BI skills, knowledge, and experience for undergraduate majors, master of science in business  ...  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We sincerely thank TUN's board and members for their support of this project as part of the TUN BI curriculum committee initiative.  ... 
doi:10.17705/1cais.03623 fatcat:gkiduqj5gra3pluhjo2jlorvgu

Ukraina po wyborach parlamentarnych 2012 roku – wybrane scenariusze rozwoju sytuacji politycznej

Łukasz Donaj
2013 Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne  
Forecasting is understood as predicting based on specific trustworthy data. Futurology in turn is the science of predicting the future.  ...  procesów politycznych, "OErodkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne" 2005, No. 2. 2 The term forecast should be understood as a 'a judgment based on scientific research practices, relating to a specific future  ...  Development of a pre-scenario is based on preparing a forecast of the variables of the object.  ... 
doi:10.14746/ssp.2013.2.02 fatcat:fztndxlwrnemvp2sr24xl6m3au

Data Analytics Applications for Streaming Data From Social Media: What to Predict?

Frank Emmert-Streib, Olli P. Yli-Harja, Matthias Dehmer
2018 Frontiers in Big Data  
We will focus on text-based approaches because they represent by far the largest cohort of studies and we present a taxonomy of studied problems.  ...  In this review, we are focusing on microblogging services and discuss applications of streaming data from the scientific literature.  ...  A non-spatial prediction makes a forecast for the population as a whole, e.g., the outcome of an election (Alonso and Vilares, 2016; Tumasjan et al., 2011) .  ... 
doi:10.3389/fdata.2018.00002 pmid:33693318 pmcid:PMC7931880 fatcat:drihkk45gba55kjn2ieru27ena

Future implementation of mobility as a service (MaaS): Results of an international Delphi study

Peraphan Jittrapirom, Vincent Marchau, Rob van der Heijden, Henk Meurs
2018 Travel Behaviour & Society  
Acknowledgements This research is part of SCRIPTS: Smart Cities Responsive Intelligent Public Transport Systems, a SURF (Smart Urban Regions of the Future) project, carried out by the TU Eindhoven, TU  ...  It is sponsored by NWO (The Netherlands Organization for scientific research in close collaboration with a large number of social partners.  ...  The exact dynamics in case of intervention are not always predictable (Pojani & Stead, 2015) .  ... 
doi:10.1016/j.tbs.2018.12.004 fatcat:ckt3c2cbpfffpihxwlstx7mjcy

Can a Budget Simulation Model of Decentralized Territorial Authorities be Enhanced by an Artificial Intelligence Method

Amaïde Arsan Miriarison Tsikomia
2021 Risk in Contemporary Economy  
However, the local finance budget is always based on an ex-ante situation without taking into account the economic, political, the behaviour of the elected official, the electoral cycle, and performance  ...  Therefore, a numerical simulation (use in many developed countries) from computer tools or the use of artificial intelligence or AI that can effectively predict a local finance budget.  ...  ) to make it into a sort of Smart Data-, is therefore one of the essential evolution challenges of business services professions, such as more particularly business intelligence consulting which is characterized  ... 
doaj:843730bda43f4d49b75c6479dba352de fatcat:aoax5wulwfd2fpxrdyeqolvnv4

Simultaneous Electricity Price and Demand Forecasting in Smart Grids

Vahid Asgari, Ali Rahmani Larmai
2017 Bulletin de la Société royale des sciences de Liège  
In this framework, a mechanism based on principles of data mining data mining to determine the patterns in response to changes in consumer demand and prices are used.  ...  In this paper, a forecasting framework is proposed that offers such dynamics in predicting the electricity price demand.  ...  Advanced techniques that are based on artificial intelligence and fuzzy logic Hybrid methods for improving the results of combining several different used methods.  ... 
doi:10.25518/0037-9565.6850 fatcat:lcipoj22ozco3nndlxnxbbnctq

Election Forecast

A Wuffle
1993 PS: Political Science and Politics  
It has often been said that forecasting elections is a dangerous business.  ...  As Jay Greene's "Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election" article in the March 1993 issue demonstrates, forecasting elections is even a dangerous business  ...  ," "the Republican Party is a hollow shell," and on and on-all without supporting data.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1049096500063526 fatcat:ctcke3ijbrhzpdka44z6l2fvia

Weather Forecasters Should Be So Accurate: A Response to "Forewarned Before Forecast"

1993 PS: Political Science and Politics  
It has often been said that forecasting elections is a dangerous business.  ...  As Jay Greene's "Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election" article in the March 1993 issue demonstrates, forecasting elections is even a dangerous business  ...  ," "the Republican Party is a hollow shell," and on and on-all without supporting data.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1049096500037719 fatcat:vmmtp3d3kneo3c4l4re777tstu

Uncle Wuffle Redux

Edwin Fogelman
1993 PS: Political Science and Politics  
It has often been said that forecasting elections is a dangerous business.  ...  As Jay Greene's "Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election" article in the March 1993 issue demonstrates, forecasting elections is even a dangerous business  ...  ," "the Republican Party is a hollow shell," and on and on-all without supporting data.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1049096500063599 fatcat:5rlchiqzjvgj3j2strcnok5b3y

Response to "Uncle Wuffle's Advice to Assistant Professors"

A Stone
1993 PS: Political Science and Politics  
It has often been said that forecasting elections is a dangerous business.  ...  As Jay Greene's "Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election" article in the March 1993 issue demonstrates, forecasting elections is even a dangerous business  ...  ," "the Republican Party is a hollow shell," and on and on-all without supporting data.  ... 
doi:10.1017/s1049096500063587 fatcat:nsilx6hgwbgidpcbg7eorwnrka
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