Seismic hazard analysis results for the Lower Rhine Graben and the importance of paleoseismic data release_z6fuj4gdz5aeffav6uforxw2vy

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>Seismic hazard in low seismicity areas of Europe has traditionally been considered insignificant. However, in the light of the recently conducted paleoseismic studies along the Rhine Graben, a revision is required. Previously applied standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) methods, using Poissonian approach for the earthquake occurrence, can now be substituted by renewal models where fault parameters such as the maximum magnitude, recurrence interval and the elapsed time since the last occurrence of a large earthquake, can be utilized. In this study, the application and the influence of the available paleoseismic data in the Lower Rhine Graben to seismic hazard analysis is demonstrated. The resulting hazard maps, when compared to the standard PSHA using Poissonian approach, indicate a more precise geographical distribution of the estimated seismic hazard levels. The influence of the paleoseismic data seem to be less important for return periods less than a 1000 years. Among the different input models, the highest values reach to 170 cm/sec<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> for a 1000 year return period using a combination of Poissonian and renewal models.
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